Ghialy Yap

The Moderation Effects of Political Instability and Terrorism on Tourism Development A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Looking at the current political turmoil across the globe, this study aims to analyze the effects of interaction between political instability and terrorism on tourism development using panel data from 139 countries for the period 1999–2009. The study measures the extent to which a country’s political conflicts and terrorism can negatively impact its tourism industry. The results reveal that the effect of political instability on tourism is far more severe than the effects of one-off terrorist attacks. Surprisingly, the findings suggest that terrorist attacks increase tourism demand for those low- to moderate-political-risk countries. However, countries that experience high levels of political risk witness significant reductions in their tourism businesses. In addition, political volatility and terrorism together can cause serious damage to the tourism industry.

Do political instability, terrorism, and corruption have deterring effects on tourism development even in the presence of unesco heritage? A cross-country panel estimate

This article evaluates the effects of political instability, terrorism, and corruption on tourism development, particularly UNESCO-listed heritage destinations. Using a fixed-effects panel data analysis for 139 countries over the period 1999-2009, the result reveals that a one-unit increase in political instability decreases tourist arrivals and tourism revenue between 24 and 31 and 30 and 36, respectively. Furthermore, in the presence of heritage, terrorism has negative effects on tourism demand even though its effect is lower than that of political instability. However, the study shows that an increase in corruption index would not have an adverse influence on tourist arrival numbers, particularly for those countries that have historical and natural heritage. Perhaps, many experienced travelers have expectations that they would require paying bribes to corrupt authorities for travel visa or permits to some tourist destinations in order to make things accessible. Moderation effect results indicate that political instability reduces tourism demand even in UNESCO-listed heritage destinations © 2013 Cognizant Comm. Corp.

Modelling interstate tourism demand in Australia: A cointegration approach

Interstate tourism is an important component of the domestic tourism business in Australia. However, empirical analyses of interstate tourism demand have not been previously undertaken. The motivation for this paper is to investigate the short- and long-run causal relationships between economic factors and interstate tourism demand in Australia. Using a cointegration approach, this study discovers two distinct results. First, Australian household income, accommodation prices, prices of recreation and restaurants, and domestic airfares have significant impacts on the demand in the short-run. Second, some of the long-run economic coefficients show incorrect signs, which contradict the theory of consumer demand.

The impacts of exchange rates on Australia's domestic and outbound travel markets

In Australia, domestic tourism generated AUD 71 billion in 2010–11, representing approximately 75.2% of national tourism revenue. While the number of domestic overnight visitors increased by 2.34% in that year, the number of Australians traveling overseas grew by 7.45%. In fact, the dramatic appreciation of the Australian dollar against major currencies has motivated more Australians to travel overseas rather than within their own country. The purpose of this study is to examine the economic factors that influence the demand for Australian domestic and outbound tourism. In particular, the research explores the extent to which the appreciation of Australian dollar has affected the Australian domestic tourism industry. Using panel generalized least squares models, the empirical findings show that exchange rates influence the Australians’ decisions to travel.

Volatility and Spillover Effects of Central and Eastern Europe: Impact of EU Enlargement

This study investigates volatility and spillover effects in the Central and Eastern Europe emerging market economies of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia, looking at the impact of the European Union enlargement on stock market linkages as revealed by the time series behavior of their stock market indices. The models used in the analysis of cross market effects include CCC, diagonal BEKK, VARMA GARCH, and VARMA AGARCH. Overall, the econometric analysis using these models shows limited stock market integration during the pre-EU period, however interdependence of the markets is established for the post-EU period. The results provide important information on the impact of the accession of new countries to the European Union, with clear evidence of stability in Central and Eastern Europe markets and integration within the region.

Modelling the Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates on Australia's Inbound Tourism Growth

The appreciation of the Australian dollar has been a concern as Australia has become less competitive compared to neighbouring countries. This paper investigates to what extent exchange rates could adversely affect Australia’s inbound tourism and whether volatility in exchange rates could increase the uncertainty in international tourist arrivals to Australia. The study is based on nine countries of origin namely China, India, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, the UK and the USA for the period January 1991 to January 2011. It uses multivariate conditional volatility regressions to model the time-varying conditional variances of international tourism growth and exchange rates. Empirical findings show that tourists from Malaysia and New Zealand are relatively more sensitive to currency shocks than the others. Nevertheless, tourists’ memories of the shocks could diminish in the long-run, suggesting that the sudden appreciation of Australian dollar will not have long-term negative impacts on Australia’s inbound tourism.

The influence of national holiday structure on domestic tourism expenditure: Evidence from China

This study attempted to examine the influence of national holiday structure on the domestic tourism expenditure in the context of China. Using a multiprovincial survey data set from China National Tourism Administration, we developed a utility–consumption model to empirically analyze the consumption effects of Weekend Getaway, Paid Leave, National Day Golden Week Holiday, and National Festivals and Memorial Days (NFMDs). Results show that while the consumption effects of the first three types of holiday are significant and robust, the effect of NFMDs on tourism consumption is not statistically significant. This suggests that the first three types of holiday in China may function more effectively than NFMDs in promoting willingness to travel and tourist consumption. Policy recommendations and implications are discussed based on the study results.

Examining the existence of long-run relationships between East Asian economic integration and ASEAN tourism exports

This paper examines the existence of long-run relationships between East Asian economic integration and tourism exports for nine selected ASEAN States for the period 1996-2007. I employ tourist arrivals data as a proxy for tourism exports and trade ratios as a proxy for the economic integration. Using Johansen’s Fisher panel cointegration test, the findings show that tourist arrivals and trade ratios are cointegrated in seven out of nine Southeast Asia countries. This suggests that East Asia economic integration can be one of the important factors that influence international tourism demand to ASEAN States in the long-run. However, for Laos and Thailand, the tourist arrivals and trade ratios are not cointegrated.