Ghislain Dubois

Voluntary Carbon Offsetting Schemes for Aviation: Efficiency, Credibility and Sustainable Tourism

Tourism is becoming increasingly dependent on air transport. Recent scientific work has pointed out the significant and growing contribution of air transport to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Obligations to reduce GHG emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and post-Kyoto instruments might make transport more expensive or even restricted in the future. This paper examines these questions and the issues raised by the increasing number of organisations offering voluntary carbon offsetting schemes as a means of compensating for emissions of GHGs, mostly from transport, which could help to stabilise or reduce emissions. There are substantial differences between the approaches chosen by these organisations in terms of their calculation of emissions, compensation measures, price levels, company structures and evaluation processes. The paper discusses these differences and their consequences for the efficiency and credibility of voluntary carbon offsetting schemes. Within this increasingly contested area, there is general agreement that increased clarity and regulation is required.

Tourism and Climate Change: Proposals for a Research Agenda

This paper explains the evolution of research into tourism and climate change, illustrating how early work concentrated on the impact of climate change on tourism, whereas current work also explores the impact of tourism on climate change. It goes on to elaborate a research agenda on both topics. The need to open up tourism research to other fields and professional worlds – such as climatology, the International Panel on Climate Change and transport research – is stressed, as is the need to organise the research community on a global basis, with more collaborative and comparative research.

Tourism/Leisure Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts for 2050: Factors for Change in France

This paper deals with the prediction of French tourism/leisure mobility demands in 2050, and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis is based on a model of household tourism/leisure mobility patterns based on four modes of transport. A sensitivity analysis quantifies possible changes in greenhouse gas emissions according to hypotheses related to demographics, economic situations, the international security context, transport technology and policy, the tourism market, lifestyles and cultural change. The results show the high sensitivity of the model to economic parameters, and that French tourism travel still has considerable growth potential. Any technological improvements could be offset by low investment in transport infrastructure and by permissive ‘transport pricing’. ‘Business as usual’ trends imply that French tourism/ leisure GHG emissions could increase by 90% by 2050, and passenger-kilometres by 200%. Very long distance trips and air transport are identified as major problems, caused by a small group of frequent travellers.

Tourism and Sustainable Development Indicators: The Gap between Theoretical Demands and Practical Achievements

This paper outlines the historical context in which indicators appeared, and links this to the need for improving information systems. The conclusions are made with particular regard for emerging issues, the most recent of which is that of sustainable development. Owing to the rather low reliability of data and to the difficulty in defining the limits of tourism as an economic activity, articulating sets of sustainable development indicators (SDIs) appears to be even more difficult for tourism than for other industry sectors. Recent and current attempts show a great variety of methods and results. They relate in particular to • the various demands placed on the data, • the geographical scale to which the indicators refer and • the type of policy called upon to foster sustainable development: public policy, self-regulation, etc. The results indicate that a certain set of issues raised by sustainable development are privileged while others are left aside. This underscores the need to review the more theoretical aspects of sustainable development debates within practical attempts to build indicators.

Limits to Tourism? A Backcasting Scenario for Sustainable Tourism Mobility in 2050

Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine what tourism and leisure would be possible for the French under the constraint of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by a factor 4, through building a backcasting scenario. To this aim, a model of French tourist flows was constructed, split according to distance, modes of transport and a typology of behavioural patterns and calibrated for year 2000. By applying emission factors to each mode of transport the model yields GHG emissions. In a second step the drivers of tourism and leisure development were considered (demographics, the economy, security, technology, lifestyles) and their prospects for the future. These prospects were introduced into the model. It needed several iterations to obtain a picture of French tourism in 2050 that is compatible with the emissions goal and within which, what is deemed a socially acceptable level of mobility is maintained.

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on French Tourism

This paper deals with the potential effects of climate change on tourism in France. It examines the implications of a scenario by Météo-France (doubling the concentration of CO2) with regards to the climatic requirements of tourists, according to the different seasons, regions and natural resources on which tourism is based.

Indicators for an Environmental Assessment of Tourism at National Level

The paper first places the research within the context of international initiatives of developing environmental indicators for the tourism sector: indicator frameworks, data constraints and communication needs, national versus local approaches and indicator development procedures. The question of data availability, collection and processing is often undermined, and the national scale is the most relevant to analyse tourism driving forces and tourism/transport interrelationships. The main results of the French national assessment, led by the French Institute for the Environment in 1999–2000, are then presented, from the driving forces of environmental impacts (such as spatial and temporal concentrations, or the evolution of tourism demand as regards to the environment) to environmental impacts at national and destination level. French mobility patterns are dominated by road transport; they are moving towards shorter stays and more frequent departures, which lead to a high impact situation. The accommodation capacity is strongly marked by secondary homes, which imply more constructions (and more space consumption) for the same number of stays. Environmental management initiatives, from public and private stakeholders, are still unable to counter these long-term trends.

Communicating Climate Information: Traveling Through the Decision-Making Process

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This chapter explores the nature and consequences of (a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts and (b) changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analyzing observatories; the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e., climate models and data), climate change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesized in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample, information on uncertainty is underrepresented: e.g., studies focus on only one scenario and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. While climatologists need better training in communication issues, decision-makers also need training in climatology to adopt more cautious and robust adaptation strategies that account for the uncertainty inherent in climate projections.