Gian Maria Maria Milesi-Ferretti

THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries

Capital flows are closely monitored, but surprisingly little is known about the stocks of external assets and liabilities held by countries, especially in the developing world. This paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for 66 industrial and developing countries for the period 1970-97. It explores the sensitivity of estimates of stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data. Finally, it characterizes the stylized facts of estimated stocks and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and differences in debt-equity ratios across countries.

Electoral Systems and Public Spending

We study the effects of electoral institutions on the size and composition of public expenditure in OECD and Latin American countries. We emphasize the distinction between purchases of goods and services, which are easier to target geographically, and transfers, which are easier to target across social groups. We present a theoretical model in which voters anticipating government policymaking under different electoral systems have an incentive to elect representatives more prone to transfer (public good) spending in proportional (majoritarian) systems. The model also predicts higher total primary spending in proportional (majoritarian) systems when the share of transfer spending is high (low). After defining rigorous measures of proportionality to be used in the empirical investigation, we find considerable support for our predictions.

Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities

This paper studies large reductions in current account deficits and exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. Both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade, are found to trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; an exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversals there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls

The effects and determinants of capital controls are studied using panel data for 61 countries. Capital controls are more likely in countries with lower income, a large government, and a central bank with limited independence. Other determinants of controls include the exchange rate regime, current account imbalances, and the degree of openness of the economy. Capital controls are found to be associated with higher inflation and lower real interest rates. No robust correlation is found between our measures of controls and economic growth, although there is evidence that countries with large black market premiums on foreign exchange grow more slowly.

On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture

Harberger’s superneutrality conjecture contends that, although in theory the mix of direct and indirect taxes affects investment and growth, in practice tax policy is ineffective as an instrument to promote growth. This paper provides evidence to support this view by examining the predictions of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation. The empirical work is based on numerical simulations and cross-country regressions, using a new methodology for constructing aggregate effective tax rates. Results show significant investment effects from taxes that are consistent with negligible growth effects. The results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants.

International Investment Patterns

We provide a systematic analysis of bilateral, source and host factors driving portfolio equity investment across countries, using newly released data on international equity holdings at the end of 2001. We develop a model that links bilateral equity holdings to bilateral trade in goods and services and find that the data strongly support such a correlation. Larger bilateral positions are also associated with proxies for informational proximity. We further document that the scale of aggregate foreign equity asset and liability holdings is larger for richer countries and countries with more developed stock markets.

International Financial Integration

In recent decades, foreign assets and liabilities in advanced countries have grown rapidly relative to GDP, with the increase in gross cross-holdings far exceeding the size of net positions. Moreover, the portfolio equity and FDI categories have grown in importance relative to international debt stocks. In this Paper, we describe the broad trends in international financial integration for a sample of industrial countries, and seek to explain the cross-country and time-series variation in the size of international balance sheets. We also examine the behaviour of the rates of return on foreign assets and liabilities, relating them to ‘market’ returns.

The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries

Abstract Although capital flows are closely monitored, surprisingly little is known about the accumulated stocks of foreign assets and liabilities held by various countries, especially in the developing world. This paper constructs estimates of foreign assets and liabilities and their equity and debt subcomponents for a sample of 67 industrial and developing countries. It characterizes the stylized facts of international balance sheets and asks whether there are trends in net foreign asset positions and shifts in debt–equity ratios over time. Finally, it explores the sensitivity of estimated stock positions to the treatment of valuation effects not captured in balance of payments data.

The Great Retrenchment: International Capital Flows During the Global Financial Crisis

The current crisis saw an unprecedented collapse in international capital flows after years of rising financial globalization. We identify the stylized facts and main drivers of this development. The retrenchment in international capital flows is a highly heterogeneous phenomenon: first across time, being especially dramatic in the wake of the Lehman Brothers’ failure, second across types of flows, with banking flows being the hardest hit due to their sensitivity of risk perception, and third across regions, with emerging economies experiencing a shorter-lived retrenchment than developed economies. Our econometric analysis shows that the magnitude of the retrenchment in capital flows across countries is linked to the extent of international financial integration, its specific nature—with countries relying on bank flows being the hardest hit—as well as domestic macroeconomic conditions and their connection to world trade flows.

Good, Bad or Ugly? On The Effects of Fiscal Rules with Creative Accounting

Do fiscal rules likely lead to fiscal adjustment, or do they encourage the use of ‘creative accounting’? This question is studied with a model in which fiscal rules are imposed on ‘measured’ fiscal variables, which can differ from ‘true’ variables because there is a margin for creative accounting. The probability of detecting creative accounting depends on its size and the transparency of the budget. The model studies the effects on fiscal policy of different rules, separating structural from cyclical effects, and examines how these effects depend on the underlying fiscal distortion and on the degree of transparency of the budget.