Gianfranco Vulpiani

Volcanic Ash Cloud Retrieval by Ground-Based Microwave Weather Radar

The potential of ground-based microwave weather radar systems for volcanic ash cloud detection and quantitative retrieval is evaluated. The relationship between radar reflectivity factor, ash concentration, and fall rate is statistically derived for various eruption regimes and ash sizes by applying a radar-reflectivity microphysical model. To quantitatively evaluate the ash detectability by weather radars, a sensitivity analysis is carried out by simulating synthetic ash clouds and varying ash concentration and size as a function of the range. Radar specifications are taken from typical radar systems at S-, C-, and X-band. A prototype algorithm for volcanic ash radar retrieval (VARR) is discussed. Starting from measured single-polarization reflectivity, the statistical inversion technique to retrieve ash concentration and fall rate is based on two cascade steps, namely: 1) classification of eruption regime and volcanic ash category and 2) estimation of ash concentration and fall rate. Expected accuracy of the VARR algorithm estimates is evaluated using a synthetic data set. An application of the VARR technique is finally shown, taking into consideration the eruption of the Grinodotacutemsvoumltn volcano in Iceland on November 2004. Volume scan data from a Doppler C-band radar, which is located at 260 km from the volcano vent, are processed by means of the VARR algorithm. Examples of the achievable VARR products are presented and discussed

Supervised Fuzzy-Logic Classification of Hydrometeors Using C-Band Weather Radars

A model-based fuzzy-logic method for hydrometeor classification using C-band polarimetric radar data is presented and discussed. Membership functions of the fuzzy-logic algorithm are designed for best fitting simulated radar signatures at C-band. Such signatures are derived for ten supervised hydrometeor classes by means of a fully polarimetric radar scattering model. The Fuzzy-logic Radar Algorithm for Hydrometeor Classification at C-band (FRAHCC) is designed to use a relatively small set of polarimetric observables, i.e., copolar reflectivity and differential reflectivity, but a version of the algorithm based on the use of specific differential phase is also numerically tested and documented. The classification methodology is applied to volume data coming from a C-band two-radar network that is located in north Italy within the Po valley. Numerical and experimental results clearly show the improvements of hydrometeor classification, which were obtained by using FRAHCC with respect to the direct use of fuzzy-logic-based algorithms that are specifically tuned for S-band radar data. Moreover, the availability of two C-band rainfall observations of the same event allowed us to implement a path-integrated attenuation correction procedure, based on either a composite radar field approach or a network-constrained variational algorithm. The impact of these correction procedures on hydrometeor classification is qualitatively discussed within the considered case study.

On the Use of Dual-Polarized C-Band Radar for Operational Rainfall Retrieval in Mountainous Areas

AbstractRadar-rainfall estimation is a complex process that involves several error sources, some of which are related to the environmental context. The presence of orographic obstacles heavily affects the quality of the retrieved radar products. In relatively flat terrain conditions, dual-polarization capability has been proven either to increase the data quality or to improve the rainfall estimate. The potential benefit of using polarimetric techniques for precipitation retrieval is evaluated here using data coming from two radar systems operating in Italy under complex-orography conditions. The analysis outlines encouraging results that might open new scenarios for operational applications. Indeed, the applied rainfall algorithm employing specific differential phase mostly outperformed the examined reflectivity-based retrieval techniques except for the analyzed winter storm. In the latter case, the likely contamination by frozen or melting snow tended to degrade the performance of the examined Kdp-based...

Analysis and Synthesis of Raindrop Size Distribution Time Series From Disdrometer Data

Hydrometeorological and radio propagation applications can benefit from the capability to model the time evolution of raindrop size distribution (RSD). A new stochastic vector autoregressive semi-Markov model is proposed to randomly synthesize (generate) the temporal series of the three driving parameters of a normalized gamma RSD. Rainfall intermittence is reproduced through a discrete semi-Markov process, modeled from disdrometer measurements using two-state analytical statistics of rain and dry period duration. The overall model is set up by means of a large set of disdrometer measurements, collected from 2003 to 2005 at Chilbolton, U.K. The driving parameters of the retrieved RSD are estimated using three approaches: the Gamma moment method and the 1D and 3D maximum-likelihood methods. Interestingly, these methodologies lead to quite different results, particularly when one is interested in evaluating RSD higher order moments such as the rain rate. The accuracy of the proposed RSD time-series generation technique is evaluated against available disdrometer measurements, providing excellent statistical scores.

Supervised Classification and Estimation of Hydrometeors From C-Band Dual-Polarized Radars: A Bayesian Approach

In this paper, a Bayesian statistical approach for supervised classification and estimation of hydrometeors, using a C-band polarimetric radar, is presented and discussed. The Bayesian Radar Algorithm for Hydrometeor Classification at C-band (BRAHCC) is supervised by a backscattering microphysical model, aimed at representing ten different hydrometeor classes in water, ice, and mixed phase. The expected error budget is evaluated by means of contingency tables on the basis of C-band radar noisy and attenuated synthetic data. Its accuracy is better than that obtained from a previously developed fuzzy logic C-band classification algorithm. As a second step of the overall retrieval algorithm, a multivariate regression is adopted to derive water content statistical estimators, exploiting simulated polarimetric radar data for each hydrometeor class. The BRAHCC methodology is then applied to a convective hail event, observed by two C-band dual-polarized radars in a network configuration. The hydrometeor classification along the line of sight, connecting the two C-band radars, is performed using the BRAHCC applied to path-attenuation-corrected data. Qualitative results are consistent with those derived from the fuzzy logic algorithm. Hydrometeor water content temporal evolution is tracked along the radar line of sight. Hail vertical occurrence is derived and compared with an empirical hail detection index applied along the radar connection line during the whole event.

Microphysical characterization of microwave Radar reflectivity due to volcanic ash clouds

Ground-based microwave radar systems can have a valuable role in volcanic ash cloud monitoring as evidenced by available radar imagery. Their use for ash cloud detection and quantitative retrieval has been so far not fully investigated. In order to do this, a forward electromagnetic model is set up and examined taking into account various operating frequencies such as S-, C-, X-, and Ka-bands. A dielectric and microphysical characterization of volcanic vesicular ash is carried out. Particle size-distribution (PSD) functions are derived both from the sequential fragmentation-transport (SFT) theory of pyroclastic deposits, leading to a scaled-Weibull PSD, and from more conventional scaled-Gamma PSD functions. Best fitting of these theoretical PSDs to available measured ash data at ground is performed in order to determine the value of the free PSD parameters. The radar backscattering from spherical-equivalent ash particles is simulated up to Ka-band and the accuracy of the Rayleigh scattering approximation is assessed by using an accurate ensemble particle scattering model. A classification scheme of ash average concentration and particle size is proposed and a sensitivity study of ash radar backscattering to model parameters is accomplished. A comparison with C-band radar signatures is finally illustrated and discussed.

Comparison of Advanced Radar Polarimetric Techniques for Operational Attenuation Correction at C Band

Abstract Rain path attenuation correction is a challenging task for quantitative use of weather radar measurements at frequencies higher than S band. The proportionality relationship between specific attenuation αhh (specific differential attenuation αdp) and specific differential phase Kdp is the basis for simple path-integrated attenuation correction using differential phase Φdp. However, the coefficients of proportionality are known to be dependent upon temperature, on the one hand, and shape and raindrop size distribution, on the other hand. To solve this problem, a Bayesian classification scheme is proposed to empirically find the prevailing rain regime and adapt the Φdp-based method. The proposed approach herein is compared with other polarimetric techniques currently available in the literature. Several episodes observed in the Paris, France, area by the C-band dual-polarized weather radar operating in Trappes (France) are analyzed and results are discussed.

Constrained iterative technique with embedded neural network for dual-polarization radar correction of rain path attenuation

A new stable backward iterative technique to correct for path attenuation and differential attenuation is presented here. The technique named, neural network iterative polarimetric precipitation estimator by radar (NIPPER), is based on a polarimetric model used to train an embedded neural network, constrained by the measurement of the differential phase along the rain path. Simulations are used to investigate the efficiency, accuracy, and the robustness of the proposed technique. The precipitation is characterized with respect to raindrop size, shape, and orientation distribution. The performance of NIPPER is evaluated by using simulated radar volumes scan generated from S-band radar measurements. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to evaluate the expected errors of NIPPER. These evaluations show relatively better performance and robustness of the attenuation correction process when compared with currently available techniques.

Synthetic Signatures of Volcanic Ash Cloud Particles From X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar

Weather radar retrieval, in terms of detection, estimation, and sensitivity, of volcanic ash plumes is dependent not only on the radar system specifications but also on the range and ash cloud distribution. The minimum detectable signal can be increased, for a given radar and ash plume scenario, by decreasing the observation range and increasing the operational frequency and also by exploiting possible polarimetric capabilities. For short-range observations in proximity of the volcano vent, a compact portable system with relatively low power transmitter may be evaluated as a suitable compromise between observational and technological requirements. This paper, starting from the results of a previous study and from the aforementioned issues, is aimed at quantitatively assessing the optimal choices for a portable X-band system with a dual-polarization capability for real-time ash cloud remote sensing. The physical-electromagnetic model of ash particle distributions is systematically reviewed and extended to include nonspherical particle shapes, vesicular composition, silicate content, and orientation phenomena. The radar backscattering response at X-band is simulated and analyzed in terms of self-consistent polarimetric signatures for ash classification purposes and correlation with ash concentration for quantitative retrieval aims. An X-band radar system sensitivity analysis to ash concentration, as a function of radar specifications, range, and ash category, is carried out in trying to assess the expected system performances and limitations.

Unusually High Differential Attenuation at C Band: Results from a Two-Year Analysis of the French Trappes Polarimetric Radar Data

The differential phase (FDP) measured by polarimetric radars is recognized to be a very good indicator of the path integrated by rain. Moreover, if a linear relationship is assumed between the specific differential phase (KDP) and the specific attenuation (AH) and specific differential attenuation (ADP), then attenuation can easily be corrected. The coefficients of proportionality, gH and gDP, are, however, known to be dependent in rain upon drop temperature, drop shapes, drop size distribution, and the presence of large drops causing Mie scattering. In this paper, the authors extensively apply a physically based method, often referred to as the ‘‘Smyth and Illingworth constraint,’’ which uses the constraint that the value of the differential reflectivity ZDR on the far side of the storm should be low to retrieve the gDP coefficient. More than 30 convective episodes observed by the French operational C-band polarimetric Trappes radar during two summers (2005 and 2006) are used to document the variability of gDP with respect to the intrinsic threedimensional characteristics of the attenuating cells. The Smyth and Illingworth constraint could be applied to only 20% of all attenuated rays of the 2-yr dataset so it cannot be considered the unique solution for attenuation correction in an operational setting but is useful for characterizing the properties of the strongly attenuating cells. The range of variation of gDP is shown to be extremely large, with minimal, maximal, and mean values being, respectively, equal to 0.01, 0.11, and 0.025 dB 8 21 . Coefficient gDP appears to be almost linearly correlated with the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and specific differential phase (KDP) and correlation coefficient (rHV) of the attenuating cells. The temperature effect is negligible with respect to that of the microphysical properties of the attenuating cells. Unusually large values of gDP, above 0.06 dB 8 21 , often referred to as ‘‘hot spots,’’ are reported for 15%—a nonnegligible figure—of the rays presenting a significant total differential phase shift (DfDP . 308). The corresponding strongly attenuating cells are shown to have extremely high ZDR (above 4 dB) and ZH (above 55 dBZ), very low rHV (below 0.94), and high KDP (above 48 km 21 ). Analysis of 4 yr of observed raindrop spectra does not reproduce such low values of rHV, suggesting that (wet) ice is likely to be present in the precipitation medium and responsible for the attenuation and high phase shifts. Furthermore, if melting ice is responsible for the high phase shifts, this suggests that KDP may not be uniquely related to rainfall rate but can result from the presence of wet ice. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the vertical profiles of horizontal reflectivity and the values of conventional probability of hail indexes.