Giang Thanh Long

EFFICIENCY AND SUPER-EFFICIENCY OF COMMERCIAL BANKS IN VIETNAM: PERFORMANCES AND DETERMINANTS

This paper estimates and compares efficiency performance of 32 commercial banks in Vietnam during 2001–2005, as well as identifies possible factors determining such efficiency performance. Efficiency is measured by a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model and super-efficiency measure through a slacks-based model (SBM) under the assumption of variable returns to scale (VRS). We find that there were a small number of efficient banks, and there would be room for these banks to improve their production efficiency. Moreover, in comparison with small banks, large banks do not guarantee high super efficiency scores. The results from a Tobit regression model provide such interesting findings as negative impact of state ownership, positive influence of bank size and market share, but no impact of labor quality.

REMITTANCES, LIVING ARRANGEMENTS, AND THE WELFARE OF THE ELDERLY IN VIETNAM

During a time of rapid economic transformation in Vietnam, we examined two possibilities for elderly support: living together with children and receiving remittances. Our analysis used four household surveys conducted in Vietnam between 1992 and 2004. With the highly detailed 1997–1998 survey, we found that 73.1 percent of Vietnamese elderly are living with children and 34.8 percent were either receiving remittances directly or married to a recipient. From our logistic regression analysis, we determined further that living with children and remittances both serve continuing roles for elderly support, and our findings suggest that expanding the pension system in Vietnam can potentially play an important role in reducing elderly poverty without crowding out these other support mechanisms.

A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population

Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than that implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.