Gianmaria Sannino

The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea

In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss de...

Med-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hot spots” of the 21st century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in Vulnerability/Impact/Adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Med-CORDEX initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community towards the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system, from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends, and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

Future Climate Projections

In this chapter we show results from an innovative multi-model system used to produce climate simulations with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The models (hereafter simply referred to as the “CIRCE models”) are a set of five coupled climate models composed by a high-resolution Mediterranean Sea coupled with a relatively high-resolution atmospheric component and a global ocean, which allow, for the first time, to explore and assess the role of the Mediterranean Sea and its complex, small-scale dynamics in the climate of the region. In particular, they make it possible to investigate the influence that local air-sea feedbacks might exert on the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change in the European continent, Middle East and Northern Africa. In many regards, they represent a new and innovative approach to the problem of regionalization of climate projections in the Mediterranean region.

Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models

Within the CIRCE project “Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment”, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.

Hydraulic Criticality of the Exchange Flow through the Strait of Gibraltar

Abstract The hydraulic state of the exchange circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar is defined using a recently developed critical condition that accounts for cross-channel variations in layer thickness and velocity, applied to the output of a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model simulating the tidal exchange. The numerical model uses a coastal-following curvilinear orthogonal grid, which includes, in addition to the Strait of Gibraltar, the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea. The model is forced at the open boundaries through the specification of the surface tidal elevation that is characterized by the two principal semidiurnal and two diurnal harmonics: M2, S2, O1, and K1. The simulation covers an entire tropical month. The hydraulic analysis is carried out approximating the continuous vertical stratification first as a two-layer system and then as a three-layer system. In the latter, the transition zone, generated by entrainment and mixing between the Atlantic and Mediterranean flows, ...

The Climate of the Mediterranean Region in Future Climate Projections

Future climate change over the Mediterranean area is investigated by means of climate model simulations covering the twenty-first century that take into account different anthropogenic greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. This chapter first gives some new insights on these projections coming from the use of new methods, including the coupling at the regional scale of the atmospheric component to a Mediterranean Sea component. A synthesis of the expected changes of key aspects of the Mediterranean regional climate, obtained with a wide range of models and downscaling methods, is then presented. This includes an overview of not only expected changes in the mean climate and climate extremes but also possible changes in Mediterranean Sea temperature, salinity, circulation, water and heat budgets, and sea level. The chapter ends with some advanced results on the way to deal with uncertainties in climate projections and some discussion on the confidence that we can attribute to these projections.

Timing of the emergence of the Europe–Sicily bridge (40–17 cal ka BP) and its implications for the spread of modern humans

Abstract The submerged sill in the Strait of Messina, which is located today at a minimum depth of 81 m below sea level (bsl), represents the only land connection between Sicily and mainland Italy (and thus Europe) during the last lowstand when the sea level locally stood at about 126 m bsl. Today, the sea crossing to Sicily, although it is less than 4 km at the narrowest point, faces hazardous sea conditions, made famous by the myth of Scylla and Charybdis. Through a multidisciplinary research project, we document the timing and mode of emergence of this land connection during the last 40 kyr. The integrated analysis takes into consideration morphobathymetric and lithological data, and relative sea-level change (both isostatic and tectonic), resulting in the hypothesis that a continental land bridge lasted for at least 500 years between 21.5 and 20 cal ka BP. The emergence may have occurred over an even longer time span if one allows for seafloor erosion by marine currents that have lowered the seabed since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modelling of palaeotidal velocities shows that sea crossings when sea level was lower than present would have faced even stronger and more hazardous sea currents than today, supporting the hypothesis that earliest human entry into Sicily most probably took place on foot during the period when the sill emerged as dry land. This hypothesis is compared with an analysis of Pleistocene vertebrate faunas in Sicily and mainland Italy, including a new radiocarbon date on bone collagen of an Equus hydruntinus specimen from Grotta di San Teodoro (23–21 cal ka BP), the dispersal abilities of the various animal species involved, particularly their swimming abilities, and the Palaeolithic archaeological record, all of which support the hypothesis of a relatively late land-based colonization of Sicily by Homo sapiens.

A high-resolution modelling study of the Turkish Straits System

High-resolution modelling, for the first time, is used to study the basic hydrodynamics of the Turkish Straits System (TSS). Hydraulic controls in the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits are found to be essential in determining the coupled response of the TSS, which directly influences the interaction between the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The mixed baroclinic—barotropic response of the system is investigated as a function of the net barotropic flux and density stratification imposed at external boundaries, in the absence of atmospheric and tidal effects. The intense surface jet issuing from the Bosphorus is found to drive the basin-wide circulation of the Marmara Sea, varying with the net flux. The temporal response of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits picks up rather fast, within a day or two, thanks to hydraulic controls within straits, while the surface currents in the Marmara Sea only approach steady state after a few months. Model stratification and circulation features are validated against independent measurements and a stand-alone model of the Bosphorus.

Wave energy potential in the Mediterranean sea: Design and development of DSS-WebGIS “waves energy”

GIS technologies are able to provide useful tools for estimating the energy resource from the sea waves, assessing whether this energy is exploitable and evaluating possible environmental impacts. The idea to convert the energy associated with the marine wave motion (both off-shore and coastal) into exploitable electrical energy is not new and over time several projects have been developed, aiming at the implementation of devices for electrical energy generation from the sea. However, compared to other well-established renewable sources (such as wind, solar or biomass), the exploitation of the tidal power, is currently only in prototype form. Nevertheless, it has shown very promising potentiality, as also emerges from the activities currently carried-out by public institutions and private stakeholders.

Installing U-OWC devices along Italian coasts

In the last decades, the research has directed its efforts and resources paper is to investigate towards the possibility to incorporate wave energy converters, into the traditional maritime breakwaters to combine classical use with new opportunities and developments (for example, the Green Ports). Since the nineties, the OWC (Oscillating Water Column) plants were developed at full scale to produce electrical power from ocean waves. For instance, a new plant was built in Mutriku (Spain) recently.A new kind of OWC caisson, named U-OWC or REWEC3, which has the advantage to obtain an impressive natural resonance without any device for phase control, has been patented by Boccotti [1]. This new U-OWC device gives performances better than those of a conventional OWC either with small wind waves or with high waves [2,3,4]. The properties of the REWEC3 have been verified with two small-scale field experiments carried out in the natural ocean engineering laboratory NOEL of Reggio Calabria off the eastern coast of the Sicily Channel [5–7]. The aim of the present two sites along Italian coasts for possible installations of REWEC3 devices: i) the port of Civitavecchia (Rome, Italy)in the Tyrrhenian sea; ii) the port of Pantelleria, in the Sicily Channel.Copyright