Gianni Tognoni

Statins and risk of incident diabetes: a collaborative meta-analysis of randomised statin trials

BACKGROUND Trials of statin therapy have had conflicting findings on the risk of development of diabetes mellitus in patients given statins. We aimed to establish by a meta-analysis of published and unpublished data whether any relation exists between statin use and development of diabetes. METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from 1994 to 2009, for randomised controlled endpoint trials of statins. We included only trials with more than 1000 patients, with identical follow-up in both groups and duration of more than 1 year. We excluded trials of patients with organ transplants or who needed haemodialysis. We used the I(2) statistic to measure heterogeneity between trials and calculated risk estimates for incident diabetes with random-effect meta-analysis. FINDINGS We identified 13 statin trials with 91 140 participants, of whom 4278 (2226 assigned statins and 2052 assigned control treatment) developed diabetes during a mean of 4 years. Statin therapy was associated with a 9% increased risk for incident diabetes (odds ratio [OR] 1.09; 95% CI 1.02-1.17), with little heterogeneity (I(2)=11%) between trials. Meta-regression showed that risk of development of diabetes with statins was highest in trials with older participants, but neither baseline body-mass index nor change in LDL-cholesterol concentrations accounted for residual variation in risk. Treatment of 255 (95% CI 150-852) patients with statins for 4 years resulted in one extra case of diabetes. INTERPRETATION Statin therapy is associated with a slightly increased risk of development of diabetes, but the risk is low both in absolute terms and when compared with the reduction in coronary events. Clinical practice in patients with moderate or high cardiovascular risk or existing cardiovascular disease should not change. FUNDING None.

A Trial of Goal-Oriented Hemodynamic Therapy in Critically Ill Patients

Background Hemodynamic therapy to raise the cardiac index and oxygen delivery to supranormal levels may improve outcomes in critically ill patients. We studied whether increasing the cardiac index to a supranormal level (cardiac-index group) or increasing mixed venous oxygen saturation to a normal level (oxygen-saturation group) would decrease morbidity and mortality among critically ill patients, as compared with a control group in which the target was a normal cardiac index. Methods A total of 10,726 patients in 56 intensive care units were screened, among whom 762 patients belonging to predefined diagnostic categories with acute physiology scores of 11 or higher were randomly assigned to the three groups (252 to the control group, 253 to the cardiac-index group, and 257 to the oxygen-saturation group). Results The hemodynamic targets were reached by 94.3 percent of the control group, 44.9 percent of the cardiac-index group, and 66.7 percent of the oxygen-saturation group (P<0.001). Mortality was 48.4, ...

Early Protection Against Sudden Death by n-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids After Myocardial Infarction

Background— Our purpose was to assess the time course of the benefit of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) on mortality documented by the GISSI-Prevenzione trial in patients surviving a recent (<3 months) myocardial infarction. Methods and Results— In this study, 11 323 patients were randomly assigned to supplements of n-3 PUFAs, vitamin E (300 mg/d), both, or no treatment (control) on top of optimal pharmacological treatment and lifestyle advice. Intention-to-treat analysis adjusted for interaction between treatments was carried out. Early efficacy of n-3 PUFA treatment for total, cardiovascular, cardiac, coronary, and sudden death; nonfatal myocardial infarction; total coronary heart disease; and cerebrovascular events was assessed by right-censoring follow-up data 12 times from the first month after randomization up to 12 months. Survival curves for n-3 PUFA treatment diverged early after randomization, and total mortality was significantly lowered after 3 months of treatment (relative risk [RR] 0...

Changes in Brain Natriuretic Peptide and Norepinephrine Over Time and Mortality and Morbidity in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial (Val-HeFT)

Background—Neurohormones are considered markers of heart failure progression. We examined whether changes in brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and norepinephrine (NE) over time are associated with corresponding changes in mortality and morbidity in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial. Methods and Results—Plasma BNP and NE were measured before randomization and during follow-up in ≈4300 patients in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial. The relation between baseline BNP and NE and all-cause mortality and first morbid event (M&M) was analyzed in subgroups, with values above and below the median, and by quartiles. The change and percent change from baseline to 4 and 12 months in BNP and NE were also analyzed by quartiles for subsequent M&M. Risk ratios for M&M were calculated using a Cox proportional hazard model. Risk ratio of M&M for patients with baseline BNP or NE above the median was significantly higher than that for patients with values below the median. Baseline BNP and NE in quartiles also showed a quartile-dependent increase in M&M. BNP had a stronger association with M&M than NE. Patients with the greatest percent decrease in BNP and NE from baseline to 4 and 12 months had the lowest whereas patients with greatest percent increase in BNP and NE had the highest M&M. Conclusions—Not only are plasma BNP and NE important predictors of heart failure M&M, but changes in these neurohormones over time are associated with corresponding changes in M&M. These data further reinforce their role as significant surrogate markers in HF and underscore the importance of including their measurement in HF trials.

Prognostic value of very low plasma concentrations of troponin T in patients with stable chronic heart failure

Background— Circulating cardiac troponin T, a marker of cardiomyocyte injury, predicts adverse outcome in patients with heart failure (HF) but is detectable in only a small fraction of those with chronic stable HF. We assessed the prognostic value of circulating cardiac troponin T in patients with stable chronic HF with a traditional (cTnT) and a new precommercial highly sensitive assay (hsTnT). Methods and Results— Plasma troponin T was measured in 4053 patients with chronic HF enrolled in the Valsartan Heart Failure Trial (Val-HeFT). Troponin T was detectable in 10.4% of the population with the cTnT assay (detection limit ≤0.01 ng/mL) compared with 92.0% with the new hsTnT assay (≤0.001 ng/mL). Patients with cTnT elevation or with hsTnT above the median (0.012 ng/mL) had more severe HF and worse outcome. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for clinical risk factors, cTnT was associated with death (780 events; hazard ratio=2.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.72 to 2.52; P<0.0001) and first hospitalization for HF (655 events; hazard ratio=1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.25 to 1.93; P<0.0001). HsTnT was associated with the risk of death in unadjusted analysis for deciles of concentrations and in multivariable models (hazard ratio=1.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.07 for increments of 0.01 ng/mL; P<0.0001). Addition of hsTnT to well-calibrated models adjusted for clinical risk factors, with or without brain natriuretic peptide, significantly improved prognostic discrimination (C-index, P<0.0001 for both outcomes). Conclusions— In this large population of patients with HF, detectable cTnT predicts adverse outcomes in chronic HF. By the highly sensitive assay, troponin T retains a prognostic value at previously undetectable concentrations.

Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: Analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND Daily aspirin reduces the long-term risk of death due to cancer. However, the short-term effect is less certain, especially in women, effects on cancer incidence are largely unknown, and the time course of risk and benefit in primary prevention is unclear. We studied cancer deaths in all trials of daily aspirin versus control and the time course of effects of low-dose aspirin on cancer incidence and other outcomes in trials in primary prevention. METHODS We studied individual patient data from randomised trials of daily aspirin versus no aspirin in prevention of vascular events. Death due to cancer, all non-vascular death, vascular death, and all deaths were assessed in all eligible trials. In trials of low-dose aspirin in primary prevention, we also established the time course of effects on incident cancer, major vascular events, and major extracranial bleeds, with stratification by age, sex, and smoking status. RESULTS Allocation to aspirin reduced cancer deaths (562 vs 664 deaths; odds ratio [OR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·76-0·96, p=0·008; 34 trials, 69,224 participants), particularly from 5 years onwards (92 vs 145; OR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·82, p=0·0005), resulting in fewer non-vascular deaths overall (1021 vs 1173; OR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78-0·96, p=0·003; 51 trials, 77,549 participants). In trials in primary prevention, the reduction in non-vascular deaths accounted for 87 (91%) of 96 deaths prevented. In six trials of daily low-dose aspirin in primary prevention (35,535 participants), aspirin reduced cancer incidence from 3 years onwards (324 vs 421 cases; OR 0·76, 95% CI 0·66-0·88, p=0·0003) in women (132 vs 176; OR 0·75, 95% CI 0·59-0·94, p=0·01) and in men (192 vs 245; OR 0·77, 95% CI 0·63-0·93, p=0·008). The reduced risk of major vascular events on aspirin was initially offset by an increased risk of major bleeding, but effects on both outcomes diminished with increasing follow-up, leaving only the reduced risk of cancer (absolute reduction 3·13 [95% CI 1·44-4·82] per 1000 patients per year) from 3 years onwards. Case-fatality from major extracranial bleeds was also lower on aspirin than on control (8/203 vs 15/132; OR 0·32, 95% CI 0·12-0·83, p=0·009). INTERPRETATION Alongside the previously reported reduction by aspirin of the long-term risk of cancer death, the short-term reductions in cancer incidence and mortality and the decrease in risk of major extracranial bleeds with extended use, and their low case-fatality, add to the case for daily aspirin in prevention of cancer. FUNDING None.

Effect of valsartan on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND It is not known whether drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system reduce the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular events in patients with impaired glucose tolerance. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized clinical trial with a 2-by-2 factorial design, we assigned 9306 patients with impaired glucose tolerance and established cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors to receive valsartan (up to 160 mg daily) or placebo (and nateglinide or placebo) in addition to lifestyle modification. We then followed the patients for a median of 5.0 years for the development of diabetes (6.5 years for vital status). We studied the effects of valsartan on the occurrence of three coprimary outcomes: the development of diabetes; an extended composite outcome of death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, arterial revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina; and a core composite outcome that excluded unstable angina and revascularization. RESULTS The cumulative incidence of diabetes was 33.1% in the valsartan group, as compared with 36.8% in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the valsartan group, 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.92; P<0.001). Valsartan, as compared with placebo, did not significantly reduce the incidence of either the extended cardiovascular outcome (14.5% vs. 14.8%; hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.07; P=0.43) or the core cardiovascular outcome (8.1% vs. 8.1%; hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.14; P=0.85). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with impaired glucose tolerance and cardiovascular disease or risk factors, the use of valsartan for 5 years, along with lifestyle modification, led to a relative reduction of 14% in the incidence of diabetes but did not reduce the rate of cardiovascular events. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00097786.)

The Threshold for Prophylactic Platelet Transfusions in Adults with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

BACKGROUND Prophylactic platelet transfusions are usually administered to patients receiving myelotoxic chemotherapy when their platelet count falls below 20,000 per cubic millimeter. Some observations suggest that lower platelet counts can be appropriate in patients in stable condition, but the safety of lower thresholds is uncertain. METHODS We evaluated 255 adolescents and adults (age, 16 to 70 years) with newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia (but not acute promyelocytic leukemia), who were treated in 21 centers. One hundred thirty-five patients were randomly assigned to receive a transfusion when their platelet count fell below 10,000 per cubic millimeter (or 10,000 to 20,000 per cubic millimeter in those with a temperature above 38 degrees C, with active bleeding, or a need for invasive procedures), and 120 patients were assigned to receive a transfusion when their platelet count was less than 20,000 per cubic millimeter. RESULTS Patients in the group with a threshold of 10,000 platelets per cubic millimeter received 21.5 percent fewer platelet transfusions than the patients in the group with a threshold of 20,000 platelets per cubic millimeter (P=0.001). The numbers of red-cell units transfused were not significantly different between groups. Major bleeding (defined as any bleeding more than petechiae or mucosal or retinal bleeding) occurred in 21.5 and 20 percent of patients, respectively (P=0.41), and on 3.1 and 2.0 percent of the days of hospitalization. One episode of fatal cerebral hemorrhage occurred in the group with a threshold of 10,000 platelets per cubic millimeter; none occurred in the other group (P= 0.95). Actuarial estimates of survival during induction chemotherapy, actuarial estimates of the absence of major bleeding, and the length of hospital stay were not significantly different in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS The risk of major bleeding during induction chemotherapy in adolescents and adults with acute myeloid leukemia (except acute promyelocytic leukemia, which we did not study) was similar with platelet-transfusion thresholds of 20,000 per cubic millimeter and 10,000 per cubic millimeter (or 10,000 to 20,000 per cubic millimeter when body temperature exceeded 38 degrees C, there was active bleeding, or invasive procedures were needed). Use of the lower threshold reduced platelet use by 21.5 percent.

Vascular and Neoplastic Risk in a Large Cohort of Patients With Polycythemia Vera

PURPOSE The clinical course of polycythemia vera is often complicated by thrombosis as well as by the possible transition to myeloid metaplasia with myelofibrosis or acute myeloid leukemia. The aim of this study was to assess the rate of these complications in subjects receiving currently recommended treatments. PATIENTS AND METHODS Overall, 1,638 patients from 12 countries were enrolled onto a large, prospective multicenter project aimed at describing the clinical history of polycythemia vera for the following outcomes: survival, the cumulative rate of cardiovascular death and thrombosis, the cumulative rate of leukemia, myelodysplasia, and myelofibrosis. The mean duration of the disease at entry and the duration of the follow-up were 4.9 and 2.7 years, respectively. RESULTS The overall mortality rate of 3.7 deaths per 100 persons per year resulted from a moderate risk of cardiovascular death and a high risk of death from noncardiovascular causes (mainly hematologic transformations). Age older than 65 years and a positive history of thrombosis were the most important predictors of cardiovascular events. Antiplatelet therapy, but not cytoreductive treatment, was significantly associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events. We found a consistent association between age and risk of leukemia, and between duration of the disease with risk of myelofibrosis. CONCLUSION The European Collaboration on Low-Dose Aspirin in Polycythemia Vera study documents that large international collaborative studies are feasible in this field, in which few epidemiologic data are available. The persistently high mortality rate from hematologic malignancies characterizes the unmet therapeutic need of polycythemic patients and suggests a priority for future studies in this disease.

Determinants of 6-month mortality in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Results of the GISSI-2 data base. The Ad hoc Working Group of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI)-2 Data Base.

BackgroundCurrent knowledge of risk assessment in survivors of myocardial infarction is largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. It must be determined whether and to what extent available information and proposed criteria of prognostication are applicable in the thrombolytic era. Methods and ResultsWe reassessed risk prediction in the 10 219 survivors of myocardial infarction with follow-up data available (ie, 98% of the total) who had been enrolled in the GISSI-2 trial, relying on a set of prespecified variables. The 3.5% 6-month all-cause mortality rate of these patients compared with the higher value of 4.6% found in the corresponding GISSI-1 cohort, originally allocated to streptokinase therapy, indicates a 24% reduction in postdischarge 6-month mortality. On multivariate analysis (Cox model), the following variables were predictors of 6-month all-cause mortality: ineligibility for exercise test for both cardiac (relative risk [RR], 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.36-4.62) and noncardiac reasons (RR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.23-4.72), early left ventricular failure (RR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.87-3.09), echocardiographic evidence of recovery phase left ventricular dysfunction (RR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.78-2.98), advanced (more than 70 years) age (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.43 -2.30), electrical instability (ie, frequent and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias) (RR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.32-2.19), late left ventricular failure (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.17-2.03), previous myocardial infarction (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.89), and a history of treated hypertension (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.05-1.65). Early post-myocardial infarction angina, a positive exercise test, female sex, history of angina, history of insulin-dependent diabetes, and anterior site of myocardial infarction were not risk predictors. On further multivariate analysis, performed on 8315 patients with the echocardiographic indicator of left ventricular dysfunction available, only previous myocardial infarction was not retained as an independent risk predictor. ConclusionA decline in 6-month mortality of myocardial infarction survivors, seen within 6 hours of symptom onset, has been observed in recent years. Ineligibility for exercise test, early left ventricular failure, and recovery-phase left ventricular dysfunction are the most powerful (RR, >2) predictors of 6-month mortality among patients recovering from myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Qualitative variables reflecting residual myocardial ischemia do not appear to be risk predictors. The lack of an independent adverse influence of early post-myocardial infarction angina on 6-month survival represents a major difference between this study and those of the prethrombolytic era.