Gil Mahé

Analysis of a Sahelian annual rainfall index from 1896 to 2000 ; the drought continues

Abstract Since 1970 the West African Sahel has experienced a significant drought which, according to some authors, corresponds to a discontinuity (abrupt change) in the rainfall series. An annual rainfall index was calculated over the period from 1896 to 2000, with a selection of 21 synoptic stations updated regularly by the Agrhymet Regional Centre in Niamey. Several statistical analyses of the index confirmed the previous descriptions, particularly the significance of the drought since 1970 and a nonstationarity, with abrupt change in the series between 1969 and 1970. Although the two recent wet years, 1994 and 1999, gave some hope of an end to the drought, the statistical results and the temporal distribution of the dry and wet years showed that the drought was not over at the end of 2000.

Rainfall and Water Resources Variability in Sub-Saharan Africa during the Twentieth Century

Abstract River basin rainfall series and extensive river flow records are used to characterize and improve understanding of spatial and temporal variability in sub-Saharan African water resources during the last century. Nine major international river basins were chosen for examination primarily for their extensive, good quality flow records. A range of statistical descriptors highlight the substantial variability in rainfall and river flows [e.g., differences in rainfall (flows) of up to −14% (−51%) between 1931–60 and 1961–90 in West Africa], the marked regional differences, and the modest intraregional differences. On decadal time scales, sub-Saharan Africa exhibits drying across the Sahel after the early 1970s, relative stability punctuated by extreme wet years in East Africa, and periodic behavior underlying high interannual variability in southern Africa. Central Africa shows very modest decadal variability, with some similarities to the Sahel in the adjoining basins. No consistent signals in rainfa...

Trends and discontinuities in regional rainfall of West and Central Africa : 1951-1989

Abstract Standardized regional mean annual rainfall series are analysed over the period 1951–1989 from a data set of 891 rainfall stations which covers 23 countries of West and Central Africa. Missing values are estimated by using regionalized indexes computed on the basis of a morpho-climatic delimitation of 44 homogeneous climatic units. Searches for statistical discontinuities in rainfall series show no discontinuity for most units of Central Africa. For several units of West Africa the first discontinuity occurs at the end of the 1950s. The main discontinuity period occurs between 1968 and 1970, followed by a second one at the beginning of the 1980s. Rainfall deficit is greater north of 10°N, and is also important in the Guinean Mountains and on the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea, west of the Atakora Mountains. Regions leeward of mountainous areas experienced moderate rainfall decrease.

Relations eaux de surface–eaux souterraines d'une rivière tropicale au Mali

Abstract The annual average of the groundwater levels in 27 wells is connected to the annual climate impact on the groundwater resources in the Bani river basin (Douna, 101 600 square kilometers). The groundwater level variations are well correlated to rainfall variations, and for the lowest levels of groundwater, the runoff stops in the dry season at Douna. The humid year of 1994 caused a rise in the groundwater level to the same level as 1981, together with a reduction of the depletion coefficient. But the runoff is still weak, showing that the rainfall–runoff relationships are modified over the long term.

The epidemiology and geographic distribution of relapsing fever borreliosis in West and North Africa, with a review of the Ornithodoros erraticus complex (Acari: Ixodida).

Background Relapsing fever is the most frequent bacterial disease in Africa. Four main vector / pathogen complexes are classically recognized, with the louse Pediculus humanus acting as vector for B. recurrentis and the soft ticks Ornithodoros sonrai, O. erraticus and O. moubata acting as vectors for Borrelia crocidurae, B. hispanica and B. duttonii, respectively. Our aim was to investigate the epidemiology of the disease in West, North and Central Africa. Methods And Findings From 2002 to 2012, we conducted field surveys in 17 African countries and in Spain. We investigated the occurrence of Ornithodoros ticks in rodent burrows in 282 study sites. We collected 1,629 small mammals that may act as reservoir for Borrelia infections. Using molecular methods we studied genetic diversity among Ornithodoros ticks and Borrelia infections in ticks and small mammals. Of 9,870 burrows investigated, 1,196 (12.1%) were inhabited by Ornithodoros ticks. In West Africa, the southern and eastern limits of the vectors and Borrelia infections in ticks and small mammals were 13°N and 01°E, respectively. Molecular studies revealed the occurrence of nine different Ornithodoros species, including five species new for science, with six of them harboring Borrelia infections. Only B. crocidurae was found in West Africa and three Borrelia species were identified in North Africa: B. crocidurae, B. hispanica, and B. merionesi. Conclusions Borrelia Spirochetes responsible for relapsing fever in humans are highly prevalent both in Ornithodoros ticks and small mammals in North and West Africa but Ornithodoros ticks seem absent south of 13°N and small mammals are not infected in these regions. The number of Ornithodoros species acting as vector of relapsing fever is much higher than previously known.

Surface/groundwater interactions in the Bani and Nakambe rivers, tributaries of the Niger and Volta basins, West Africa

Abstract The upper Niger and Volta rivers exhibit a great and highly contrasting variability of inter-annual runoff. The Bani River, the largest tributary to the Niger River in Mali, shows a dramatic decrease in runoff after the 1970s, with the result that many boreholes in the region have dried up since the drought began. In contrast, the Nakambe River (Upper Volta basin, in Burkina Faso) shows an increase in runoff for the same period, leading to unexpected flood peaks that damaged infrastructures. The contribution that the groundwater and its variability make to surface runoff variability is assessed in this study by comparing the data of the national groundwater monitoring networks of Mali and Burkina Faso to surface runoff. Several variables are compared at the basin scale: the date of the maximum level of the water table, the annual rainfall, discharge, low flows and depletion coefficients. Variability in the low flows of the Bani River is well correlated to a decrease in the water table. Since 1970, the greater decrease in runoff in comparison to the rainfall decrease is due to a reduction in the baseflow, related to the cumulated rainfall deficit. Concerning the Nakambe River, the runoff increase is not supported by a water table increase, but is due to the increase in runoff coefficient related to land degradation.

The concept of rainfall and streamflow normals in West and Central Africa in a context of climatic variability

Abstract This contribution to the debate on the revision of rainfall and streamflow normals concerns three countries of West Africa: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast and Mali. The rainfall deficit (15–20% on average in the study area) and the river flow deficit (about 30–50% and sometimes more) observed over the past 30 years in West and Central Africa raise the problem of the reference period that must be considered in estimates of hydrological characteristics. The hypothesis of the concept of “normal” supporting these estimates is a stability of the climate. However, the effect of taking or not taking into account the data of recent years on the estimates of these characteristics can lead to very different results. This would have serious consequences for the development and management of water resources systems, as seen in two examples of dams.

The 1990s rainfall in the Sahel: the third driest decade since the beginning of the century

In the discussed paper (L’Hôte et al., 2002) the authors deal with the annual rainfall amounts over the last century and conclude that the drought that affects the Sahel since about 1970 was still going on during the 1990s. So, in this response, the answers to the two main questions in the discussion by Ozer et al. (2003) are addressed, which are about (a) the representativeness of the index used in the original study, and (b) the continuation or the end of the drought during the 1990s. Moreover, the authors recall and show that the recent floods in the Sahelian urban areas can be related to hydrological factors other than increases in the rainfall amounts.

Water, agriculture and poverty in the Niger River basin

Livelihoods in the Niger River basin rely mainly on rainfed agriculture, except in the dry extreme north. Low yields and water productivity result from low inputs, short growing seasons, dry spells, and excessive water. The overlap of traditional and modern rules impedes secure access to water and investments in agriculture by generating uncertain land tenure. Improved agriculture and water management require technical, sociological, and regulatory changes to address the wider causes of poverty. Illiteracy and poor water quality, both correlated with high infant mortality, are pressing problems. Rapidly increasing population, climatic changes and dam construction contribute to rural vulnerability.

Modeling Potential Equilibrium States of Vegetation and Terrestrial Water Cycle of Mesoamerica under Climate Change Scenarios

The likelihood and magnitude of the impacts of climate change on potential vegetation and the water cycle in Mesoamerica is evaluated. Mesoamerica is a global biodiversity hotspot with highly diverse topographic and climatic conditions and is among the tropical regions with the highest expected changes in precipitation and temperature under future climate scenarios. The biogeographic soil-vegetation-atmosphere model Mapped Atmosphere Plant Soil System (MAPSS) was used for simulating the integrated changes in leaf area index (LAI), vegetation types (grass, shrubs, and trees), evapotranspiration, and runoff at the end of the twenty-first century. Uncertainty was estimated as the likelihood of changes in vegetation and water cycle under three ensembles of model runs, one for each of the groups of greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low, intermediate, and high emissions), for a total of 136 runs generated with 23 general circulation models (GCMs). LAI is likely to decrease over 77%-89% of the region, depending on climate scenario groups, showing that potential vegetation will likely shift from humid to dry types. Accounting for potential effects of CO2 on water use efficiency significantly decreased impacts on LAI. Runoff will decrease across the region even in areas where precipitation increases (even under increased water use efficiency), as temperature change will increase evapotranspiration. Higher emission scenarios show lower uncertainty (higher likelihood) in modeled impacts. Although the projection spread is high for future precipitation, the impacts of climate change on vegetation and water cycle are predicted with relatively low uncertainty.