Gilbert Burnham

Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey

BACKGROUND An excess mortality of nearly 100 000 deaths was reported in Iraq for the period March, 2003-September, 2004, attributed to the invasion of Iraq. Our aim was to update this estimate. METHODS Between May and July, 2006, we did a national cross-sectional cluster sample survey of mortality in Iraq. 50 clusters were randomly selected from 16 Governorates, with every cluster consisting of 40 households. Information on deaths from these households was gathered. FINDINGS Three misattributed clusters were excluded from the final analysis; data from 1849 households that contained 12 801 individuals in 47 clusters was gathered. 1474 births and 629 deaths were reported during the observation period. Pre-invasion mortality rates were 5.5 per 1000 people per year (95% CI 4.3-7.1), compared with 13.3 per 1000 people per year (10.9-16.1) in the 40 months post-invasion. We estimate that as of July, 2006, there have been 654 965 (392 979-942 636) excess Iraqi deaths as a consequence of the war, which corresponds to 2.5% of the population in the study area. Of post-invasion deaths, 601 027 (426 369-793 663) were due to violence, the most common cause being gunfire. INTERPRETATION The number of people dying in Iraq has continued to escalate. The proportion of deaths ascribed to coalition forces has diminished in 2006, although the actual numbers have increased every year. Gunfire remains the most common cause of death, although deaths from car bombing have increased.

Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey

BACKGROUND In March, 2003, military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a survey to compare mortality during the period of 14.6 months before the invasion with the 17.8 months after it. METHODS A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the 2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17.8 months after the invasion with the 14.6-month period preceding it. FINDINGS The risk of death was estimated to be 2.5-fold (95% CI 1.6-4.2) higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1.5-fold (1.1-2.3) higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected (8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents, and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the primary cause of death. Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8.1-419) than in the period before the war. INTERPRETATION Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths, or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.

Discontinuation of cost sharing in Uganda

OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of ending cost sharing on use of outpatient services and how this was perceived by health workers and members of a health unit management committee. METHODS From 10 districts across Uganda, 78 health facilities were selected. Attendance at these facilities was assessed for eight months before and 12 months after cost sharing ended. The data represented 1 966 522 outpatient visits. Perceptions about the impact of ending cost sharing were obtained from the 73 health workers and 78 members of the health unit management committee who were available. FINDINGS With the end of cost sharing, the mean monthly number of new visits increased by 17 928 (53.3%), but among children aged <5 years the increase was 3611 (27.3%). Mean monthly reattendances increased by 2838 (81.3%) among children aged <5 years and 1889 (24.3%) among all people. Attendances for immunizations, antenatal clinics, and family planning all increased, despite these services having always been free. Health workers reported a decline in morale, and many health unit management committees no longer met regularly. CONCLUSION Use of all services increased - even those that had never before been subject to fees. The loss of some autonomy by the health facility and diminished community governance of health facilities may have long term negative effects.

A balanced scorecard for health services in Afghanistan

The Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) in Afghanistan has developed a balanced scorecard (BSC) to regularly monitor the progress of its strategy to deliver a basic package of health services. Although frequently used in other health-care settings, this represents the first time that the BSC has been employed in a developing country. The BSC was designed via a collaborative process focusing on translating the vision and mission of the MOPH into 29 core indicators and benchmarks representing six different domains of health services, together with two composite measures of performance. In the absence of a routine health information system, the 2004 BSC for Afghanistan was derived from a stratified random sample of 617 health facilities, 5719 observations of patient-provider interactions, and interviews with 5597 patients, 1553 health workers, and 13,843 households. Nationally, health services were found to be reaching more of the poor than the less-poor population, and providing for more women than men, both key concerns of the government. However, serious deficiencies were found in five domains, and particularly in counselling patients, providing delivery care during childbirth, monitoring tuberculosis treatment, placing staff and equipment, and establishing functional village health councils. The BSC also identified wide variations in performance across provinces; no province performed better than the others across all domains. The innovative adaptation of the BSC in Afghanistan has provided a useful tool to summarize the multidimensional nature of health-services performance, and is enabling managers to benchmark performance and identify strengths and weaknesses in the Afghan context.

Deaths among humanitarian workers

The nature of humanitarian relief has changed dramatically in the past decade as conflicts have ceased being wars between states and are now largely internal conflict taking place amid the anarchy of weakened or collapsed states.1 Increasingly, civilians and those who try to protect and assist them are seen as legitimate targets for extortion, harassment, rape, and brutality.2 Providing assistance while protecting the providers is the dilemma facing all international aid organisations. 3 4 To gain a better understanding of deaths in this group, we analysed 382 deaths in humanitarian workers between 1985 and 1998. Most humanitarian organisations believe that the number of deaths among relief workers has been increasing.5 Although data exist for deaths among development workers, Peace Corps volunteers, and other expatriates, there have been no data on deaths among humanitarian workers.6–9 #### Summary points Wars between states have been largely replaced by internal conflict and anarchy, which have put the lives of civilians and humanitarian workers at ever increasing risk Between 1985 and 1998 nearly a half of deaths traced were in workers from UN programmes, and a quarter were in UN peacekeepers Most deaths were due to intentional violence (guns or other weapons), many associated with banditry One third of deaths occurred in the first 90 days of service, with 17% dying within the first 30 days; the timing of death was unrelated to previous field experience The number of deaths peaked with the Rwanda crisis in 1994 and has been decreasing for all groups except for non-governmental organisations, where it continues to increase We collected information from the records of aid agencies and organisations. We included any death between 1985 and 1998 occurring in workers in the field or as a result of them having worked in the field during emergency or …

Determinants of Skilled Birth Attendant Utilization in Afghanistan : A Cross-Sectional Study

OBJECTIVES We sought to identify characteristics associated with use of skilled birth attendants where health services exist in Afghanistan. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study in all 33 provinces in 2004, yielding data from 617 health facilities and 9917 women who lived near the facilities and had given birth in the past 2 years. RESULTS Only 13% of respondents had used skilled birth attendants. Women from the wealthiest quintile (vs the poorest quintile) had higher odds of use (odds ratio [OR] = 6.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.4, 8.9). Literacy was strongly associated with use (OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 2.0, 3.2), as was living less than 60 minutes from the facility (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.1, 2.0) and residing near a facility with a female midwife or doctor (OR = 1.4; 95% CI = 1.1, 1.8). Women living near facilities that charged user fees (OR = 0.8; 95% CI = 0.6, 1.0) and that had male community health workers (OR = 0.6; 95% CI = 0.5, 0.9) had lower odds of use. CONCLUSIONS In Afghanistan, the rate of use of safe delivery care must be improved. The financial barriers of poor and uneducated women should be reduced and culturally acceptable alternatives must be considered.

Measuring and managing progress in the establishment of basic health services: the Afghanistan health sector balanced scorecard

The Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) of Afghanistan has adopted the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) as a tool to measure and manage performance in delivery of a Basic Package of Health Services. Based on results from the 2004 baseline round, the MOPH identified eight of the 29 indicators on the BSC as priority areas for improvement. Like the 2004 round, the 2005 and 2006 BSCs involved a random selection of more than 600 health facilities, 1700 health workers and 5800 patient-provider interactions. The 2005 and 2006 BSCs demonstrated substantial improvements in all eight of the priority areas compared to 2004 baseline levels, with increases in median provincial scores for presence of active village health councils, availability of essential drugs, functional laboratories, provider knowledge, health worker training, use of clinical guidelines, monitoring of tuberculosis treatment, and provision of delivery care. For three of the priority indicators-drug availability, health worker training and provider knowledge-scores remained unchanged or decreased between 2005 and 2006. This highlights the need to ensure that early gains achieved in establishment of health services in Afghanistan are maintained over time. The use of a coherent and balanced monitoring framework to identify priority areas for improvement and measure performance over time reflects an objectives-based approach to management of health services that is proving to be effective in a difficult environment.

Configuring Balanced Scorecards for Measuring Health System Performance: Evidence from 5 Years' Evaluation in Afghanistan

Anbrasi Edward and colleagues report the results of a balanced scorecard performance system used to examine 29 key performance indicators over a 5-year period in Afghanistan, between 2004 and 2008.

Tsunami mortality in Aceh Province, Indonesia

OBJECTIVE Nine tsunami-affected districts in Aceh, Indonesia, were surveyed between February and August 2005 to characterize tsunami mortality. METHODS The surveys employed a two-stage cluster methodology with probability proportional to size sampling, and encompassed 1653 tsunami-displaced households with a pre-tsunami population of 10 063 individuals. FINDINGS Of the original pre-tsunami population, a total of 1642 people, or 17%, were reported as dead or missing in the tsunami. Crude mortality rates in the four survey areas ranged from a high of 23.6% in Aceh Jaya district on the west coast to 5.3% on the east coast. Age-specific mortality rates followed a similar pattern across the four survey areas, with the highest mortality concentrating in the youngest children (aged 0-9 years) and oldest adults (70+). The risk of mortality was significantly greater among females than males; this difference was most pronounced among individuals between ages 10 and 69 years, and diminished among younger and older age groups. CONCLUSION Mortality risk in the 2004 Asian tsunami varied by geographic location, age and sex. The districts of Aceh Jaya, Banda Aceh and Aceh Besar experienced the greatest mortality. Risk of death was highest among females, and among the oldest and youngest population subgroups. While the full human impact of the Asian tsunami in Aceh Province, in terms of lives lost or damaged, may never be fully measured, the resulting female deficit will likely be the tsunamis most deeply felt and prolonged impact.

Point-of-use water treatment and diarrhoea reduction in the emergency context: an effectiveness trial in Liberia

Communicable diseases are of particular concern in conflict and disaster‐affected populations that reside in camp settings. In the acute emergency phase, diarrhoeal diseases have accounted for more than 40% of deaths among camp residents. Clear limitations exist in current water treatment technologies, and few products are capable of treating turbid water. We describe the findings of a 12‐week effectiveness study of point‐of‐use water treatment with a flocculant–disinfectant among 400 households in camps for displaced populations in Monrovia, Liberia. In intervention households, point‐of‐use water treatment with the flocculant–disinfectant plus improved storage reduced diarrhoea incidence by 90% and prevalence by 83%, when compared with control households with improved water storage alone. Among the intervention group, residual chlorine levels met or exceeded Sphere standards in 85% (95% CI: 83.1–86.8) of observations with a 95% compliance rate.