Gilbert J. Huber

Normal people working in normal organizations with normal equipment: System safety and cognition in a mid-air collision

A fundamental challenge in improving the safety of complex systems is to understand how accidents emerge in normal working situations, with equipment functioning normally in normally structured organizations. We present a field study of the en route mid-air collision between a commercial carrier and an executive jet, in the clear afternoon Amazon sky in which 154 people lost their lives, that illustrates one response to this challenge. Our focus was on how and why the several safety barriers of a well structured air traffic system melted down enabling the occurrence of this tragedy, without any catastrophic component failure, and in a situation where everything was functioning normally. We identify strong consistencies and feedbacks regarding factors of system day-to-day functioning that made monitoring and awareness difficult, and the cognitive strategies that operators have developed to deal with overall system behavior. These findings emphasize the active problem-solving behavior needed in air traffic control work, and highlight how the day-to-day functioning of the system can jeopardize such behavior. An immediate consequence is that safety managers and engineers should review their traditional safety approach and accident models based on equipment failure probability, linear combinations of failures, rules and procedures, and human errors, to deal with complex patterns of coincidence possibilities, unexpected links, resonance among system functions and activities, and system cognition.

Analysis of the resilience of team performance during a nuclear emergency response exercise

The current work presents results from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of a nuclear disaster simulation. Audio-visual records were collected from an emergency room team composed of individuals from 26 different agencies as they responded to multiple scenarios in a simulated nuclear disaster. This simulation was part of a national emergency response training activity for a nuclear power plant located in a developing country. The objectives of this paper are to describe sources of resilience and brittleness in these activities, identify cues of potential improvements for future emergency simulations, and leveraging the resilience of the emergency response system in case of a real disaster. Multiple CTA techniques were used to gain a better understanding of the cognitive dimensions of the activity and to identify team coordination and crisis management patterns that emerged from the simulation exercises.

A program to support the construction and evaluation of resilience indicators

The main objective of this work is to propose a method and a tool to support the development of indicators able to inform an organization about the state of its resilience through a cyclical process of identifying its resilience factors, proposing resilience indicators, assessing its organizational resilience followed by assessing and improving the resilience indicators. The research uses concepts from complex adaptive systems and from resilience engineering to establish an initial set of indicators able to assess elements that contribute to organizational resilience, and structures them temporarily as a hierarchy. A software application to support indicator definition and structuring, questionnaire generation, and result assessment activities was built to assist in speeding up the experiment-adjust cycle. Prototype indicators were instantiated with helicopter operating companies in mind, and were reviewed by a domain expert.

Reflections on work as done (WAD) and work as imagined (WAI) in an emergency response organization: A study on firefighters training exercises

Emergency response organizations need to be resilient to cope with escalating events resulting from dynamic, unexpected, or complex situations. In Brazil, the Firefighter Corps are military hierarchal organizations with a culture based on fixed structures, well defined norms and procedures. These push against innovations which are necessary to be resilient. This research describes how firefighter captains in the 30-35-year age range managed an emergency response escalation in light of standard operating procedures (SOPs) during a training exercise. The study used ethnographic methods to find and discuss gaps between the instructions and the activities carried out during the exercise, highlighting the differences between work as done (WAD) and work as imagined (WAI), as it was instantiated in the SOP prescriptions. The aim was to produce reflections on WAI and WAD as a way to raise awareness of the need for a cultural change toward resilience in firefighter organizations. This was achieved through firefighter engagement with a comprehensive visualization of the analysis results which afforded easy interaction between the experts, the data, and the researchers.

A fuzzy model to assess disaster risk reduction maturity level based on the Hyogo Framework for Action

The Hyogo Framework for Action was conceived to help nations build resilience against disasters. This framework was negotiated and approved by the United Nations at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, held in Hyogo, Japan, in 2005. Disaster risk reductions systems are multi-agency integrated environment needing clear goals and ways to assess their evolution for planning purposes. The assessment of risk reduction maturity levels in countries/cities is difficult due to the large amount of data that must be collected and integrated to assess what is being done within each action indicated by the Hyogo Framework. Most indicators dependent on human perception are used in this assessment, making it highly dependent on the evaluators’ perceptions. The objective of this work is to propose a participatory fuzzy model able to assess the maturity level of disaster risk reduction using indicators in line with the Hyogo Framework. We apply the model and the evaluation method in an exploratory study in the city of Rio de Janeiro where there are several communities at risk of landslides due heavy rains.