Gilbert Nestel

Economic determinants and consequences of self-reported work disability

This paper examines the determinants of and behavioral responses to self-reported work disability in samples of older men and women stratified by race. Strong support is found for the hypothesis that economic factors as well as poor health influence the probability that individuals report health conditions limit the amount or kind of work they do. In particular, lower expected wage rates significantly raise the probability of reporting work disablement, controlling for health status and health-related job requirements. The empirical analysis also shows that only a part of the reduced labor supply of disabled individuals is attributable to health conditions. The policy and methodological implications of these findings are discussed.

Further Evidence on the Economic Effects of Poor Health

This paper examines variations in current economic welfare attributable to different profiles or histories of health status over the preceding ten year period. A two-equation model, estimated with National Longitudinal Survey data for four sex-race groups, provides convincing evidence that health problems incurred in the past adversely affect current earnings. This legacy is difficult to overcome; it remains even for individuals in improving health willing to devote relatively greater effort to market work. A history of poor health is also shown to exact substantially different economic tolls from men and women as well as from whites and blacks.

Factors Affecting Individual Persistence Rates in Undergraduate College Programs

This study uses a sample drawn from the National Longitudinal Surveys of young men attending college in the 1960’s. Some of the principal conclusions of the multivariate analyses are: (1) Factors determining persistence vary widely with the stage of the undergraduate career; (2) race and parental SES bear no net relation to dropping out; (3) the impact of ability declines with progress toward graduation; (4) entering college in a two-year institution is inversely associated with persistence. These and other findings demonstrate that much previous research has perpetuated erroneous inferences about dropping out of college, not the least of which is that the process can be modeled in a single equation representing the likelihood of graduation by any given group of freshmen.

Gross State Product and an Econometric Model of a State

Abstract A methodology for estimating a states gross state product (GSP) from primary data sources is presented and applied to Ohio. The social accounts for estimating GSP are used as a skeletal framework orf building a 27 equation econometric model of Ohio. The model is essentially an interdependent system consisting of behavioral equations in the following sectors: consumer, investment, state fiscal, output and personal income, and federal income tax. The sample period for most of the equations is 1949–1963. The adequacy of the model is assessed by the traditional tests of significance of the structural coefficients. In addition, the reduced form of the model is used to estimate the values of the endogenous variables for the sample period. Finally policy analysis is performed by considering alternative assumptions on one exogenous variable, prime military contracts awarded in Ohio, and determining its impact on each of the 27 endogenous variables.

Occupational Differences in the Ability of Men to Delay Retirement

Whether the functional capacity of older men to remain at work differs by occupational assignment is an important consideration in judging policies designed to advance the age of retirement. A competing-risk model of retirement, disability and death is used to test hypotheses about the influence of physically strenuous work on the ability to delay retirement. Time-dependent hazard rate functions are estimated with panel data on a nationally representative sample of older American males. Physical job requirements and health conditions are found to affect the likelihood of retiring in a disabled state. However, projections of the fractions of workers in physically strenuous and sedentary job categories that are likely to encounter difficulty in staying in the labor force do not differ greatly. Special policy consideration of workers in nonsedentary occupations may therefore be questioned.

Occupation, Impaired Health, and the Functional Capacity of Men to Continue Working

Whether the functional capacity of older men to remain at work differs by occupational assignment is an important consideration in judging policies designed to advance the age of retirement. A continuous-time Markov model of retirement, disability, and death is used to test hypotheses about the influence of physically demanding work and impaired health on the ability to delay retirement. The model is estimated with panel data on a nationally representative sample of older American males. Physical job requirements and health conditions are found to affect the likelihood of retiring in a disabled state. However, cohort projections of the fractions of workers in physically demanding and sedentary job categories retiring nondisabled are very similar. Special policy consideration of workers in physically demanding occupations may therefore be questioned.

Work capacity of older men and age-eligibility for Medicare benefits.

Whether the functional capacities of older Americans enable them to remain in the work force longer, is a significant consideration in appraising proposals to advance the normal eligibility age for Medicare benefits. This article analyzes the durations of work capability and work disablement of a representative panel of 5000 white and black men in their sixties and early seventies. The analysis shows that these men and succeeding cohorts of men are expected to function capably for long enough periods to meet the conditions necessary for raising the age of Medicare eligibility