Gilbert V. Nartea

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Matter in Emerging Markets? Evidence From China

We investigate the time series behavior of idiosyncratic volatility and its role in asset pricing in China. We find no evidence of a long-term trend in the time series behavior of idiosyncratic volatility. Idiosyncratic volatility in China is best characterized by an autoregressive process with regime shifts that coincide with structural market reforms. We also document evidence of a negative idiosyncratic volatility effect in China with anecdotal evidence suggesting that it could be driven by investor preference for high idiosyncratic volatility stocks.

Extreme returns in emerging stock markets: evidence of a MAX effect in South Korea

We investigate the significance of extreme positive returns (MAX) in the cross-sectional pricing of stocks in South Korea. Our results provide important out-of-sample evidence of a strong negative MAX effect similar to that documented by Bali et al. (2011) in the US stock market. For equal-weighted portfolios, the difference between returns on the portfolios with the highest and lowest maximum daily returns is - 1.87% per month. The corresponding difference in alpha is - 1.41% per month. The results are robust to controls for size, value, skewness, momentum, short-term reversal and idiosyncratic volatility. We also sort the portfolios by the average of the five highest daily returns within the month and report return and alpha spreads of - 2.21% and - 2.01% per month, respectively. However, unlike in Bali et al. (2011), the MAX effect cannot reverse the idiosyncratic volatility effect in the South Korean stock market. Our results imply investor preference for high-MAX stocks, consistent with cumulative prospect theory (CPT) where investors sub-optimally overweight the possibility that extreme returns will persist. The MAX effect is also consistent with the optimal expectations framework where investors derive utility from overestimating the probabilities of events in which their investments pay off well.

Role of Farm Real Estate in a Globally Diversified Asset Portfolio

Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the benefits of further diversifying a global portfolio of financial assets with New Zealand farm real estate (FRE). Design/methodology/approach - The paper compares efficient sets generated with and without FRE using portfolio theory. Findings - The results show that given the predominantly negative correlation between FRE and financial assets, the risk-return tradeoffs of portfolios of financial assets can be improved significantly. The diversification benefits measured in terms of risk reduction, return enhancement, and improvement in the Sharpe performance ratios are robust under a number of FRE risk-return scenarios as well as under high and low inflationary periods. Using five and ten-year rolling periods it also finds that FRE is a consistent part of risk efficient portfolios. Consistent with the results reported in Lee and Stevenson, for the UK real estate the risk reduction benefits of diversifying with FRE are larger than the risk enhancement benefits. Practical implications - The results suggest that FRE takes on a consistent role of risk-reducer rather than a return-enhancer in a globally diversified portfolio. FRE appears to deserve more serious consideration by investment practitioners that it has been accorded in the past. Originality/value - The study examines the role of direct real estate in a globally diversified portfolio of financial assets.

Sources of Risk and Risk Management Strategies: The Case of Smallholder Farmers in a Developing Economy

© 2012 Aditto et al., licensee InTech. This is an open access chapter distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Sources of Risk and Risk Management Strategies: The Case of Smallholder Farmers in a Developing Economy

Diversification Benefits from New Zealand Real Estate

Abstract Although the benefits of further diversifying a portfolio of New Zealand financial assets with unsecuritised New Zealand real estate have been confirmed in previous studies, this paper examines the benefits of further diversifying a portfolio by including rural grazing property. Modern portfolio theory is used to determine the benefits of including rural property, as well as the traditional property investment assets, in a diversified investment portfolio based on New Zealand investment assets. In addition, efficient sets generated with and without real estate are compared and found significant return enhancement and risk reduction benefits of adding retail property and farm real estate to the mix. These benefits are robust even when real estate return variance is increased sixfold or when real estate returns are reduced by 20 per cent, suggesting that real estate can reasonably be expected to be a consistent part of risk efficient portfolios.

Economic risk analysis of alternative farming systems for smallholder farmers in central and north-east Thailand

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to investigate farmers’ risk aversion using the equally likely certainty equivalent approach and the negative exponential utility function to identify risk preference classification. Design/methodology/approach - – Stochastic efficiency with respect to a function is applied to determine the risk efficient farming systems for the farmers in central and north-east regions of Thailand. Findings - – The study results showed that maize followed by sorghum is the most risk efficient farming system for the extremely risk averse rain-fed farmers in the central region of Thailand. Intensive planting of wet rice and dry rice cultivation is preferred by the extremely risk averse central region irrigated farmers. Wet rice and cassava together with raising small herd of cattle is the most economically viable farming system for the extremely risk averse rain-fed farmers in the north-east region, while two rice crops with raising cattle is preferred by the extremely risk averse north-east irrigated farmers of Thailand. Originality/value - – The findings of this study provide useful information to reinforce the empirical basis for risk analysis for Thai farmers. The results will provide more accurate information regarding risk at the farm level to policy makers and researchers.

Bubble footprints in the Malaysian stock market: are they rational?

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Malaysian stock market in light of contradictory results presented in previous studies. Design/methodology/approach - – The authors use descriptive statistics, explosiveness tests and the duration dependence test. They use an expanded data set that encompasses at least two alleged bubble episodes addressing a significant limitation of previous studies. The authors use both monthly and weekly returns addressing concerns about the sensitivity of duration dependence test results to the use of monthly versus weekly returns, as well as a battery of alternative measures of returns. Findings - – The authors detect bubble footprints but they do not appear to be rational. They found no evidence of rational speculative bubbles over the sample period regardless of whether monthly or weekly returns was used. The authors suggest that if there were bubbles in the Malaysian stock market, they might have been caused by irrational investor behaviour. The authors’ results do not support the suggestion that the duration dependence test is sensitive to the use of monthly versus weekly returns. Practical implications - – Despite the absence of rational bubbles in the Malaysian stock market, the faint bubble footprints detected still suggest caution for investors, as the authors cannot categorically rule out the presence of irrational bubbles. Originality/value - – This paper clarifies conflicting results of previous studies. It also contributes to the literature on bubble testing by presenting new evidence from an emerging market refuting the claim that duration dependence test results are sensitive to the use of either weekly or monthly returns.

Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum Returns and Market Dynamics: Evidence from Japan

We test the behavioural theories of overconfidence and underreaction on cross-sectional (CS) and times-series (TS) momentum returns in the Japanese stock markets. Both CS and TS momentum returns are large and significant when the market continues in the same state and turns into losses when the market transitions to another state, consistent with the overconfidence but not the underreaction model. We find that TS conditional momentum returns exceed conditional CS momentum returns because of its active position since TS takes a net long (short) position following UP (DN) markets while CS is a zero-cost strategy irrespective of the market state. Finally, we find no relation between idiosyncratic volatility and momentum returns which is not supportive of either the overconfidence or underreaction model but implies that idiosyncratic volatility is not a significant limit to arbitrage in Japan.

Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum Returns and Market Dynamics: Are Islamic Stocks Different?

We search for differences in both unconditional and conditional momentum returns of Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks and test implications of competing behavioral theories that aim to explain momentum returns. Our results show that there is no significant difference in momentum returns between Islamic versus Non-Islamic stocks with respect to both cross-sectional (CS) and time-series (TS) momentum strategies even when we condition momentum returns on market dynamics, information uncertainty (IU), and idiosyncratic volatility (IV). We also find that the TS strategy outperforms (underperforms) the CS strategy in market continuations (transitions) consistent with the recent evidence in the U.S. market. Furthermore, we find that CS and TS strategies of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks are profitable only when the market continues in the same state consistent with overconfidence driving momentum returns of both Islamic and Non-Islamic stocks.

Momentum, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Market Dynamics: Evidence from China

Recent evidence on the relation between momentum and idiosyncratic volatility (IV) in the U.S. is mixed. We verify the relation between momentum and IV in China and find at best, no relation supporting the view that idiosyncratic risk is not a significant arbitrage cost for momentum returns. While the absence of a positive relation between momentum returns and IV rejects both the underreaction and the overconfidence and self-attribution stories of momentum, we find support for the overconfidence and self-attribution story from our results on market dynamics and momentum. Our results are robust when verified in other Asian markets. We also find support for the suggestion that cross-country differences in momentum returns could be the result of differences in market dynamics rather than differences in levels of individualism as suggested earlier in the literature.