Gildas Cambon

About the role of Westerly Wind Events in the possible development of an El Niño in 2014

Similarities between early 1997 and 2014 has prompted climate scientists to wonder if an El Nino matching the 1997 “El Nino of the century” could develop in 2014. Until April 2014, the equatorial Pacific exhibited positive heat content anomalies along with an eastward warm pool displacement similar to those found during the onset of strong El Nino events. Yet in July 2014, the warm pool had retreated back to its climatological positions and equatorial temperature anomalies were much weaker than in mid-1997. Dedicated oceanic simulations reveal that these weak interannual anomalies can be attributed to differences in Westerly Wind Event (WWE) sequences. In contrast with 1997, the lack of WWEs from April to June significantly limited the growth of eastern Pacific anomalies and the eastward warm pool displacement in 2014. With the absence of additional WWE activity, prospects for a mature El Nino in late 2014 are fading.

Upwelling response to atmospheric coastal jets off central Chile: A modeling study of the October 2000 event

The spatial and temporal variability of nearshore winds in eastern boundary current systems affect the oceanic heat balance that drives sea surface temperature changes. In this study, regional atmospheric and oceanic simulations are used to document such processes during an atmospheric coastal jet event off central Chile. The event is well reproduced by the atmospheric model and is associated with the migration of an anomalous anticyclone in the southeastern Pacific region during October 2000. A robust feature of the simulation is a sharp coastal wind dropoff, which is insensitive to model resolution. As expected, the simulated oceanic response is a significant sea surface cooling. A surface heat budget analysis shows that vertical mixing is a major contributor to the cooling tendency both in the jet core area and in the nearshore zone where the magnitude of this term is comparable to the magnitude of vertical advection. Sensitivity experiments show that the oceanic response in the coastal area is sensitive to wind dropoff representation. This is because total upwelling, i.e., the sum of coastal upwelling and Ekman pumping, depends on the scale of wind dropoff. Because the latter is much larger than the upwelling scale, coastal wind dropoff has only a weak positive effect on vertical velocities driven by Ekman pumping but has a strong negative effect on coastal upwelling. Interestingly though, the weakening of coastal winds in the dropoff zone has a larger effect on vertical mixing than on vertical advection, with both effects contributing to a reduction of cooling.

Forcing mechanisms of intraseasonal SST variability off central Peru in 2000–2008

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) intraseasonal variability (40–90 days) along the coast of Peru is commonly attributed to the efficient oceanic connection with the equatorial variability. Here we investigate the respective roles of local and remote equatorial forcing on the intraseasonal SST variability off central Peru (8°S–16°S) during the 2000–2008 period, based on the experimentation with a regional ocean model. We conduct model experiments with different open lateral boundary conditions and/or surface atmospheric forcing (i.e., climatological or not). Despite evidence of clear propagations of coastal trapped waves of equatorial origin and the comparable marked seasonal cycle in intraseasonal Kelvin wave activity and coastal SST variability (i.e., peak in Austral summer), this remote equatorial forcing only accounts for ∼20% of the intraseasonal SST regime, which instead is mainly forced by the local winds and heat fluxes. A heat budget analysis further reveals that during the Austral summer, despite the weak along-shore upwelling (downwelling) favorable wind stress anomalies, significant cool (warm) SST anomalies along the coast are to a large extent driven by Ekman-induced advection. This is shown to be due to the shallow mixed layer that increases the efficiency by which wind stress anomalies relates to SST through advection. Diabatic processes also contribute to the SST intraseasonal regime, which tends to shorten the lag between peak SST and wind stress anomalies compared to what is predicted from an advective mixed-layer model.