Gilla Sünnenberg

Rural landscape visualisation from GIS databases: a comparison of approaches, options and problems

As public participation in environmental decision-making becomes more prevalent, there is a growing need to communicate effectively with a non-expert audience. Visual presentation has been identified as an effective means of communicating landscape-related information, particularly due to the increasing ease with which computer visualisation techniques can utilise GIS data. Such data are already widely used when assessing environmental and landscape issues, and there are several different ways in which visualisations may be produced; this paper sets out a typology encompassing the most popular techniques, and, using a common GIS database, proceeds to assesses a number of different visualisation software packages. Three primary issues are considered: data needs; ease of use; and quality of output. Examples of visualisations produced in each software package are provided for comparison.

Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes

Climate change is an issue that will increasingly require policy consideration, but for which knowledge and information at the local or landscape scale is either lacking or largely inaccessible. This paper explores the possibility of reinterpreting climate impacts information and presenting it through GIS-based visualisations in a manner that might assist decision-making at the local level. A GIS database was constructed for an agricultural landscape in Norfolk. Future land-use changes under climate change scenario for the 2020s, provided by a land use allocation model at 1 km grid-square resolution, were downscaled to the field-level database using a series of decision rules. The predicted land use changes were then visualised using photorealistic image rendering software. As a technical exercise this work illustrates the extent of recent advances in GIS-based visualisation, but it is also recognised that there needs to be further work on a range of topics (including impact assessment methodologies, the representation of uncertainty and design guidelines) if such images are to be widely used as a information provision and decision support tool in relation to climate change.

The availability of land for perennial energy crops in Great Britain

This paper defines the potentially available land for perennial energy crops across Great Britain as the first component of a broader appraisal undertaken by the ‘Spatial Modelling of Bioenergy in Great Britain to 2050’ project. Combining data on seven primary constraints in a GIS reduced the available area to just over 9 M ha (40% of GB). Adding other restrictions based on land cover naturalness scores to represent landscape considerations resulted in a final area of 8.5 M ha (37% of GB). This distribution was compared with the locations of Miscanthus and SRC willow established under the English Energy Crop Scheme during 2001–2011 and it was found that 83% of the planting fell within the defined available land. Such a correspondence provides confidence that the factors considered in the analysis were broadly consistent with previous planting decisions.

A classification of local authority waste collection and recycling strategies in England and Wales

A new system of classification for local authorities in England and Wales is described based on key variables that relate to waste collection and provision of recycling infra-structure. This system, based on a hierarchical cluster analysis, has benefits over the simple geographical or socio-economic classifications that are currently employed for comparing districts on their waste management and recycling performance. Applications of the cluster analysis demonstrate its potential to contrast the performance of local authorities that provide their householders with different methods of waste containment for regular household waste collections (e.g. wheeled bins verses plastic sacks) and pursue different recycling strategies with different levels of infra-structure provision.

Potential impacts on ecosystem services of land use transitions to second-generation bioenergy crops in GB

We present the first assessment of the impact of land use change (LUC) to second‐generation (2G) bioenergy crops on ecosystem services (ES) resolved spatially for Great Britain (GB). A systematic approach was used to assess available evidence on the impacts of LUC from arable, semi‐improved grassland or woodland/forest, to 2G bioenergy crops, for which a quantitative ‘threat matrix’ was developed. The threat matrix was used to estimate potential impacts of transitions to either Miscanthus, short‐rotation coppice (SRC, willow and poplar) or short‐rotation forestry (SRF). The ES effects were found to be largely dependent on previous land uses rather than the choice of 2G crop when assessing the technical potential of available biomass with a transition from arable crops resulting in the most positive effect on ES. Combining these data with constraint masks and available land for SRC and Miscanthus (SRF omitted from this stage due to lack of data), south‐west and north‐west England were identified as areas where Miscanthus and SRC could be grown, respectively, with favourable combinations of economic viability, carbon sequestration, high yield and positive ES benefits. This study also suggests that not all prospective planting of Miscanthus and SRC can be allocated to agricultural land class (ALC) ALC 3 and ALC 4 and suitable areas of ALC 5 are only minimally available. Beneficial impacts were found on 146 583 and 71 890 ha when planting Miscanthus or SRC, respectively, under baseline planting conditions rising to 293 247 and 91 318 ha, respectively, under 2020 planting scenarios. The results provide an insight into the interplay between land availability, original land uses, bioenergy crop type and yield in determining overall positive or negative impacts of bioenergy cropping on ecosystems services and go some way towards developing a framework for quantifying wider ES impacts of this important LUC.

Estimating UK perennial energy crop supply using farm-scale models with spatially disaggregated data

To achieve the UK Governments aim of expansion in the growth of perennial energy crops requires farmers to select these crops in preference to conventional rotations. Existing studies estimating the total potential resource have either only simplistically considered the farmer decision‐making and opportunity costs, for example using an estimate of annual land rental charge; or have not considered spatial variability, for example using representative farm types. This paper attempts to apply a farm‐scale modelling approach with spatially specific data to improve understanding of potential perennial energy crop supply. The model main inputs are yield maps for the perennial energy crops, Miscanthus and willow grown as short‐rotation coppice (SRC), and regional yields for conventional crops. These are used to configure location specific farm‐scale models, which optimize for profit maximization with risk aversion. Areas that are unsuitable or unavailable for energy crops, due to environmental or social factors, are constrained from selection. The results are maps of economic supply, assuming a homogenous farm‐gate price, allowing supply cost curves for the UK market to be derived. The results show a high degree of regional variation in supply, with different patterns for each energy crop. Using estimates of yields under climate change scenarios suggests that Miscanthus supply may increase under future climates while the opposite effect is suggested for SRC willow. The results suggest that SRC willow is only likely to able to supply a small proportion of the anticipated perennial energy crop target, without increases in market prices. Miscanthus appears to have greater scope for supply, and its dominance may be amplified over time by the effects of climate change. Finally, the relationship to the demand side of the market is discussed, and work is proposed to investigate the factors impacting how the market as a whole may develop.

Modelling land-use scenarios to reduce groundwater nitrate pollution: the European Water4All project

The Water4All project funded by the EU InterregIIIB programme aimed to demonstrate groundwater protection in the context of spatial planning and the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive. Through a series of workshops, the four partner countries (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK) developed a handbook containing an approach for risk-based land and water management to reduce diffuse pollution of groundwater from agricultural sources. Best practice guidelines were catalogued as a matrix of compensated and non-compensated ‘soft’ to ‘hard’ measures and were supported by illustrative case studies. The Water4All project also showed that spatially targeted measures can have wider benefits as part of a ‘whole landscape’ approach to planning and management. As an example, this paper explores a set of theoretical land-use scenarios, developed in consultation with stakeholders, which could potentially decrease nitrate concentrations in the regionally important Lincolnshire Limestone aquifer in eastern England. The results of a combined export coefficient and numerical groundwater modelling approach showed that a decrease in groundwater nitrate concentrations can be achieved over several decades with the implementation of a groundwater protection zone in which there is a significant element of land conversion from arable to woodland and grass. Hence, a long-term commitment to land management is required if the alternative and expensive end-of-pipe water treatment is to be avoided.

The potential for bioenergy crops to contribute to meeting GB heat and electricity demands

The paper presents a model system, which consists of a partial equilibrium model and process‐based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, to determine the optimal distributions of both Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and short rotation coppice willow (SRC) (Salix. viminalis L. x S. viminalis var Joruun) in Great Britain (GB), as well as their potential contribution to meet heat and electricity demand in GB. Results show that the potential contribution of Miscanthus and SRC to heat and electricity demand is significant. Without considering farm‐scale economic constraints, Miscanthus and SRC could generate, in an economically competitive way compared with other energy generation costs, 224 800 GWh yr−1 heat and 112 500 GWh yr−1 electricity, with 8 Mha of available land under Miscanthus and SRC, accounting for 66% of total heat demand and 62% of total electricity demand respectively. Given the pattern of heat and electricity demand, and the relative yields of Miscanthus and SRC in different parts of GB, Miscanthus is mainly favoured in the Midlands and areas in the South of GB, whereas SRC is favoured in Scotland, the Midlands and areas in the South of GB.