Gilles Hilary

Does Past Success Lead Analysts to Become Overconfident

This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful. The results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables. Our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short-lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings.

Endogenous Overconfidence in Managerial Forecasts

We examine whether attribution bias leads managers who have experienced short-term forecasting success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings. Importantly, this form of overconfidence is endogenous and dynamic. We also examine the effect of this cognitive bias on the managerial credibility. Consistent with the existence of dynamic overconfidence, managers who have predicted earnings accurately in the previous four quarters are less accurate in their subsequent earnings predictions. These managers also display greater divergence from the analyst consensus and are more precise. Lastly, investors and analysts react less strongly to forecasts issued by overconfident managers.

The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns

We test the implications of anchoring bias associated with forecast earnings per share (FEPS) for forecast errors, earnings surprises, stock returns, and stock splits. We find that analysts make optimistic (pessimistic) forecasts when a firm’s FEPS is lower (higher) than the industry median. Further, firms with FEPS greater (lower) than the industry median experience abnormally high (low) future stock returns, particularly around subsequent earnings announcement dates. These firms are also more likely to engage in stock splits. Finally, split firms experience more positive forecast revisions, more negative forecast errors, and more negative earnings surprises after stock splits.

Management Forecast Consistency

We posit that management forecasts, which are predictable transformations of realized earnings without random errors, are more informative than unbiased forecasts, which manifest small but unpredictable errors, even if biased forecasts are less accurate. Consistent with this intuition, we find that managers who make consistent forecasting errors have a greater ability to influence investor reactions and analyst revisions, even after controlling for the effect of accuracy. This effect is more economically significant and statistically robust than that of forecast accuracy. More sophisticated investors and experienced analysts are found to have a better understanding of the benefits of consistent management forecasts.

Accounting behavior of German firms after an ADR issuance

Abstract This paper presents preliminary evidence on whether German corporations that issue American depositary receipts (ADR) experience a change in the level of garbling in earnings as expressed under German Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). In a shareholder regime, a managers objective is to maximize the companys stock price. Past literature suggests that this will lead managers to follow a policy of more disclosure. In stakeholder regimes, managers have an ill-defined objective function and their compensation is not typically sensitive to the price of the stock. This literature suggests that managers in stakeholder regimes will manipulate earnings to satisfy the various constituents of the firm. By issuing an ADR, a company changes its regime: shareholders become relatively more important to the manager. To maximize the stock price, managers should minimize the overall noise in accounting numbers even under local GAAP. The empirical results are generally consistent with this hypothesis, but a small sample size prevents drawing definitive conclusions.

Managerial Reputation in Financial and Labor Markets

We investigate whether the financial markets reaction to managerial departure announcements reflects managerial reputation and whether this reaction is related to the managers subsequent labor market progress and firm performance. We show that abnormal stock returns around the announcement of a managers departure are negatively related to the prior performance of the firm under that manager. Abnormal returns are also negatively related to the managers pay relative to the pay of the other four highest paid executives at his previous employer. The market reaction around the time of departure announcement, prior performance and relative pay predict the managers subsequent labor market progress. These results are consistent with the idea that managers develop parallel reputations in financial and labor markets. Finally, we show that the markets perception of managerial ability is consistent with the subsequent performance both of the firm that loses a CEO and of the firm that hires the departing CEO as a new manager.

Marital Status and Earnings Management

Abstract In this note, we examine the effect of CEO marital status on the riskiness of financial reporting. Using multiple proxies, we find that firms headed by a single CEO display a higher degree of earnings management than those headed by a married CEO. The effect is economically significant. Our results persist in an instrumental variable regression, suggesting that our results are not driven by innate heterogeneity in preferences.

Distributed Ledgers and Operations: What Operations Management Researchers Should Know About Blockchain Technology

Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology. While it has grown in prominence, its full potential and possible downsides are not fully understood yet, especially with respect to Operations Management (OM). This article fills this gap. After briefly reviewing the technical foundations, we explore multiple business and policy aspects. We identify five key strengths, the corresponding five main weaknesses, and three research themes of applying Blockchain technology to OM. The key strengths are (1) visibility, (2) aggregation, (3) validation, (4) automation, and (5) resiliency. The corresponding weaknesses are (1) lack of privacy, (2) lack of standardization, (3) garbage in, garbage out, (4) black box effect, and (5) inefficiency. The three research themes are (1) information, (2) automation, and (3) tokenization. We illustrate these research themes with multiple promising research problems, ranging from classical inventory management, to new areas of ethical OM, and to questions of Industrial Organization.

Can Capital Constraints Restrain Creativity? The Spillover Effect of Budget Constraints on Employee Creativity

When setting budgets, managers may place constraints on how resources can be used in an effort to mitigate opportunistic behavior by subordinates. These restrictions can affect the ability of the subordinate to succeed in the budgeted task, but may also have an unintended spillover effect on the ability to innovate. Using an experiment, we find that individuals working under higher budgetary constraints are more efficient in their use of budgeted resources, but are less successful in the budgeted tasks, than their counterparts working under lower budgetary constraints. Importantly, we find that imposing budgetary constraints also causes employees to subsequently generate fewer highly original and creative ideas in an unrelated activity. These findings suggest that budget structures can have unintended consequences on the innovative capabilities of organizations. This paper contributes to the expansive budgeting literature by showing budgetary control design has organizational performance implications beyond the specified budgeted activity.

Messaging without a Message: Executive Value and Social Media Activity

We show that executives who start tweeting benefit from better career options. We motivate this finding using the well-established theory of limited attention. Consistent with this explanation, we find that content is irrelevant. Comparative statics are also consistent with our framework. In particular, the effect of Twitter is greater for executives who were largely unrecognized and who were underpaid before they started tweeting, who garner greater public attention from their social media activity, who enjoy higher professional mobility, and who operate in environments where compensation setting is less structured.