Gillian Reeves

Cancer incidence and mortality in relation to body mass index in the Million Women Study: cohort study

Objective To examine the relation between body mass index (kg/m2) and cancer incidence and mortality. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants 1.2 million UK women recruited into the Million Women Study, aged 50-64 during 1996-2001, and followed up, on average, for 5.4 years for cancer incidence and 7.0 years for cancer mortality. Main outcome measures Relative risks of incidence and mortality for all cancers, and for 17 specific types of cancer, according to body mass index, adjusted for age, geographical region, socioeconomic status, age at first birth, parity, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, years since menopause, and use of hormone replacement therapy. Results 45 037 incident cancers and 17 203 deaths from cancer occurred over the follow-up period. Increasing body mass index was associated with an increased incidence of endometrial cancer (trend in relative risk per 10 units=2.89, 95% confidence interval 2.62 to 3.18), adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus (2.38, 1.59 to 3.56), kidney cancer (1.53, 1.27 to 1.84), leukaemia (1.50, 1.23 to 1.83), multiple myeloma (1.31, 1.04 to 1.65), pancreatic cancer (1.24, 1.03 to 1.48), non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.17, 1.03 to 1.34), ovarian cancer (1.14, 1.03 to 1.27), all cancers combined (1.12, 1.09 to 1.14), breast cancer in postmenopausal women (1.40, 1.31 to 1.49) and colorectal cancer in premenopausal women (1.61, 1.05 to 2.48). In general, the relation between body mass index and mortality was similar to that for incidence. For colorectal cancer, malignant melanoma, breast cancer, and endometrial cancer, the effect of body mass index on risk differed significantly according to menopausal status. Conclusions Increasing body mass index is associated with a significant increase in the risk of cancer for 10 out of 17 specific types examined. Among postmenopausal women in the UK, 5% of all cancers (about 6000 annually) are attributable to being overweight or obese. For endometrial cancer and adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus, body mass index represents a major modifiable risk factor; about half of all cases in postmenopausal women are attributable to overweight or obesity.

Body size and breast cancer risk: Findings from the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC)

The evidence for anthropometric factors influencing breast cancer risk is accumulating, but uncertainties remain concerning the role of fat distribution and potential effect modifiers. We used data from 73,542 premenopausal and 103,344 postmenopausal women from 9 European countries, taking part in the EPIC study. RRs from Cox regression models were calculated, using measured height, weight, BMI and waist and hip circumferences; categorized by cohort‐wide quintiles; and expressed as continuous variables, adjusted for study center, age and other risk factors. During 4.7 years of follow‐up, 1,879 incident invasive breast cancers were identified. In postmenopausal women, current HRT modified the body size–breast cancer association. Among nonusers, weight, BMI and hip circumference were positively associated with breast cancer risk (all ptrend ≤ 0.002); obese women (BMI > 30) had a 31% excess risk compared to women with BMI < 25. Among HRT users, body measures were inversely but nonsignificantly associated with breast cancer. Excess breast cancer risk with HRT was particularly evident among lean women. Pooled RRs per height increment of 5 cm were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00–1.16) in premenopausal and 1.10 (95% CI 1.05–1.16) in postmenopausal women. Among premenopausal women, hip circumference was the only other measure significantly related to breast cancer (ptrend = 0.03), after accounting for BMI. In postmenopausal women not taking exogenous hormones, general obesity is a significant predictor of breast cancer, while abdominal fat assessed as waist–hip ratio or waist circumference was not related to excess risk when adjusted for BMI. Among premenopausal women, weight and BMI showed nonsignificant inverse associations with breast cancer.

Evidence from randomised trials on the long-term effects of hormone replacement therapy

CONTEXT Over the past few decades hormone replacement therapy (HRT) has been used increasingly by post-menopausal women in western countries. The need for objective data on long-term effects prompted the setting up of randomised trials to compare cancer and cardiovascular disease endpoints in HRT users and non-users. With the early termination of part of the Womens Health Initiative trial (JAMA 2002; 288: 321-33), it is timely to review the evidence from such studies. STARTING POINT Four randomised trials including over 20000 women followed up for 4.9 years, on average, have now reported on the effect of HRT for major, potentially fatal, conditions. Overall, HRT users had a significantly increased incidence of breast cancer, stroke, and pulmonary embolism; a significantly reduced incidence of colorectal cancer and fractured neck of femur; but no significant change in endometrial cancer or coronary heart disease.There was no significant variation across the trials in the results for any condition. Three trials had recruited women with previous cardiovascular disease and the fourth, the Womens Health Initiative, had recruited healthy women. Combined oestrogen/progestagen HRT was used in three trials and oestrogen alone in one. Use of HRT over a 5-year period by healthy postmenopausal women in western countries is estimated to cause an extra breast cancer,stroke, or pulmonary embolus in about 6 per 1000 users aged 50-59 and 12 per 1000 aged 60-69. Over the same period, the estimated reduction in incidence of colorectal cancer or fractured neck of femur is 1.7 per 1000 users aged 50-59 and 5.5 per 1000 aged 60-69. The increased incidence of any one of these conditions is greater than any reduction, the estimated net excess over 5 years being 1 per 230 users aged 50-59, and 1 per 150 aged 60-69. WHERE NEXT Substantial new data should soon be available from randomised trials of oestrogen-alone HRT versus placebo, whereas few additional trial data on combined HRT are expected for about a decade. Existing randomised trials are too small to describe reliably the effect of HRT on important but rarer conditions, such as ovarian cancer, or on cause-specific mortality. Nor will they provide information about other types of oestrogen or progestagen. Answers to such questions will require judicious analysis and interpretation of data from observational studies.

Moderate Alcohol Intake and Cancer Incidence in Women

BACKGROUND With the exception of breast cancer, little is known about the effect of moderate intakes of alcohol, or of particular types of alcohol, on cancer risk in women. METHODS A total of 1,280,296 middle-aged women in the United Kingdom enrolled in the Million Women Study were routinely followed for incident cancer. Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 21 site-specific cancers according to amount and type of alcoholic beverage consumed. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS A quarter of the cohort reported drinking no alcohol; 98% of drinkers consumed fewer than 21 drinks per week, with drinkers consuming an average of 10 g alcohol (1 drink) per day. During an average 7.2 years of follow-up per woman 68,775 invasive cancers occurred. Increasing alcohol consumption was associated with increased risks of cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (increase per 10 g/d = 29%, 95% CI = 14% to 45%, Ptrend < .001), esophagus (22%, 95% CI = 8% to 38%, Ptrend = .002), larynx (44%, 95% CI = 10% to 88%, Ptrend = .008), rectum (10%, 95% CI = 2% to 18%, Ptrend = .02), liver (24%, 95% CI = 2% to 51%, Ptrend = .03), breast (12%, 95% CI = 9% to 14%, Ptrend < .001), and total cancer (6%, 95% CI = 4% to 7%, Ptrend < .001). The trends were similar in women who drank wine exclusively and other consumers of alcohol. For cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, the alcohol-associated risk was confined to current smokers, with little or no effect of alcohol among never and past smokers (P(heterogeneity) < .001). Increasing levels of alcohol consumption were associated with a decreased risk of thyroid cancer (Ptrend = .005), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (Ptrend = .001), and renal cell carcinoma (Ptrend = .03). CONCLUSIONS Low to moderate alcohol consumption in women increases the risk of certain cancers. For every additional drink regularly consumed per day, the increase in incidence up to age 75 years per 1000 for women in developed countries is estimated to be about 11 for breast cancer, 1 for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx, 1 for cancer of the rectum, and 0.7 each for cancers of the esophagus, larynx and liver, giving a total excess of about 15 cancers per 1000 women up to age 75.

Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1), IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3), and breast cancer risk: pooled individual data analysis of 17 prospective studies.

Summary Background Insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF1) stimulates mitosis and inhibits apoptosis. Some published results have shown an association between circulating IGF1 and breast-cancer risk, but it has been unclear whether this relationship is consistent or whether it is modified by IGF binding protein 3 (IGFBP3), menopausal status, oestrogen receptor status or other factors. The relationship of IGF1 (and IGFBP3) with breast-cancer risk factors is also unclear. The Endogenous Hormones and Breast Cancer Collaborative Group was established to analyse pooled individual data from prospective studies to increase the precision of the estimated associations of endogenous hormones with breast-cancer risk. Methods Individual data on prediagnostic IGF1 and IGFBP3 concentrations were obtained from 17 prospective studies in 12 countries. The associations of IGF1 with risk factors for breast cancer in controls were examined by calculating geometric mean concentrations in categories of these factors. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs of breast cancer associated with increasing IGF1 concentrations were estimated by conditional logistic regression in 4790 cases and 9428 matched controls, with stratification by study, age at baseline, and date of baseline. All statistical tests were two-sided, and a p value of less than 0·05 was considered significant. Findings IGF1 concentrations, adjusted for age, were positively associated with height and age at first pregnancy, inversely associated with age at menarche and years since menopause, and were higher in moderately overweight women and moderate alcohol consumers than in other women. The OR for breast cancer for women in the highest versus the lowest fifth of IGF1 concentration was 1·28 (95% CI 1·14–1·44; p<0·0001). This association was not altered by adjusting for IGFBP3, and did not vary significantly by menopausal status at blood collection. The ORs for a difference in IGF1 concentration between the highest and lowest fifth were 1·38 (95% CI 1·14–1·68) for oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours and 0·80 (0·57–1·13) for oestrogen-receptor-negative tumours (p for heterogeneity=0·007). Interpretation Circulating IGF1 is positively associated with breast-cancer risk. The association is not substantially modified by IGFBP3, and does not differ markedly by menopausal status, but seems to be confined to oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours. Funding Cancer Research UK.

The 21st century hazards of smoking and benefits of stopping: a prospective study of one million women in the UK

Summary Background Women born around 1940 in countries such as the UK and USA were the first generation in which many smoked substantial numbers of cigarettes throughout adult life. Hence, only in the 21st century can we observe directly the full effects of prolonged smoking, and of prolonged cessation, on mortality among women in the UK. Methods For this prospective study, 1·3 million UK women were recruited in 1996–2001 and resurveyed postally about 3 and 8 years later. All were followed to Jan 1, 2011, through national mortality records (mean 12 woman-years, SD 2). Participants were asked at entry whether they were current or ex-smokers, and how many cigarettes they currently smoked. Those who were ex-smokers at both entry and the 3-year resurvey and had stopped before the age of 55 years were categorised by the age they had stopped smoking. We used Cox regression models to obtain adjusted relative risks that compared categories of smokers or ex-smokers with otherwise similar never-smokers. Findings After excluding 0·1 million women with previous disease, 1·2 million women remained, with median birth year 1943 (IQR 1938–46) and age 55 years (IQR 52–60). Overall, 6% (66 489/1 180 652) died, at mean age 65 years (SD 6). At baseline, 20% (232 461) were current smokers, 28% (328 417) were ex-smokers, and 52% (619 774) were never-smokers. For 12-year mortality, those smoking at baseline had a mortality rate ratio of 2·76 (95% CI 2·71–2·81) compared with never-smokers, even though 44% (37 240/85 256) of the baseline smokers who responded to the 8-year resurvey had by then stopped smoking. Mortality was tripled, largely irrespective of age, in those still smoking at the 3-year resurvey (rate ratio 2·97, 2·88–3·07). Even for women smoking fewer than ten cigarettes per day at baseline, 12-year mortality was doubled (rate ratio 1·98, 1·91–2·04). Of the 30 most common causes of death, 23 were increased significantly in smokers; for lung cancer, the rate ratio was 21·4 (19·7–23·2). The excess mortality among smokers (in comparison with never-smokers) was mainly from diseases that, like lung cancer, can be caused by smoking. Among ex-smokers who had stopped permanently at ages 25–34 years or at ages 35–44 years, the respective relative risks were 1·05 (95% CI 1·00–1·11) and 1·20 (1·14–1·26) for all-cause mortality and 1·84 (1·45–2·34) and 3·34 (2·76–4·03) for lung cancer mortality. Thus, although some excess mortality remains among these long-term ex-smokers, it is only 3% and 10% of the excess mortality among continuing smokers. If combined with 2010 UK national death rates, tripled mortality rates among smokers indicate 53% of smokers and 22% of never-smokers dying before age 80 years, and an 11-year lifespan difference. Interpretation Among UK women, two-thirds of all deaths of smokers in their 50s, 60s, and 70s are caused by smoking; smokers lose at least 10 years of lifespan. Although the hazards of smoking until age 40 years and then stopping are substantial, the hazards of continuing are ten times greater. Stopping before age 40 years (and preferably well before age 40 years) avoids more than 90% of the excess mortality caused by continuing smoking; stopping before age 30 years avoids more than 97% of it. Funding Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Mortality in vegetarians and nonvegetarians: detailed findings from a collaborative analysis of 5 prospective studies

We combined data from 5 prospective studies to compare the death rates from common diseases of vegetarians with those of nonvegetarians with similar lifestyles. A summary of these results was reported previously; we report here more details of the findings. Data for 76172 men and women were available. Vegetarians were those who did not eat any meat or fish (n = 27808). Death rate ratios at ages 16-89 y were calculated by Poisson regression and all results were adjusted for age, sex, and smoking status. A random-effects model was used to calculate pooled estimates of effect for all studies combined. There were 8330 deaths after a mean of 10.6 y of follow-up. Mortality from ischemic heart disease was 24% lower in vegetarians than in nonvegetarians (death rate ratio: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.62, 0.94; P<0.01). The lower mortality from ischemic heart disease among vegetarians was greater at younger ages and was restricted to those who had followed their current diet for >5 y. Further categorization of diets showed that, in comparison with regular meat eaters, mortality from ischemic heart disease was 20% lower in occasional meat eaters, 34% lower in people who ate fish but not meat, 34% lower in lactoovovegetarians, and 26% lower in vegans. There were no significant differences between vegetarians and nonvegetarians in mortality from cerebrovascular disease, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, or all other causes combined.

Duration and magnitude of the postoperative risk of venous thromboembolism in middle aged women: prospective cohort study

Objective To examine the duration and magnitude of increased risk of venous thromboembolism after different types of surgery. Design Prospective cohort study (Million Women Study). Setting Questionnaire data from the Million Women Study linked with hospital admission and death records. Participants 947 454 middle aged women in the United Kingdom recruited in 1996-2001 and followed by record linkage to routinely collected NHS data on hospital admissions and deaths. During follow-up 239 614 admissions were for surgery; 5419 women were admitted, and a further 270 died, from venous thromboembolism. Main outcome measures Adjusted relative risks and standardised incidence rates for hospital admission or death from venous thromboembolism (pulmonary embolism or deep vein thrombosis), by time since and type of surgery. Results Compared with not having surgery, women were 70 times more likely to be admitted with venous thromboembolism in the first six weeks after an inpatient operation (relative risk 69.1, 95% confidence interval 63.1 to 75.6) and 10 times more likely after a day case operation (9.6, 8.0 to 11.5). The risks were lower but still substantially increased 7-12 weeks after surgery (19.6, 16.6 to 23.1 and 5.5, 4.3 to 7.0, respectively). This pattern of risk was similar for pulmonary embolism (n=2487) and deep venous thrombosis (n=3529). The postoperative risks of venous thromboembolism varied considerably by surgery type, with highest relative risks after inpatient surgery for hip or knee replacement and for cancer—1-6 weeks after surgery the relative risks were, respectively, 220.6 (187.8 to 259.2) and 91.6 (73.9 to 113.4). Conclusion The risk of deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism after surgery is substantially increased in the first 12 postoperative weeks, and varies considerably by type of surgery. An estimated 1 in 140 middle aged women undergoing inpatient surgery in the UK will be admitted with venous thromboembolism during the 12 weeks after surgery (1 in 45 after hip or knee replacement and 1 in 85 after surgery for cancer), compared with 1 in 815 after day case surgery and only 1 in 6200 women during a 12 week period without surgery.

Oral bisphosphonates and risk of cancer of oesophagus, stomach, and colorectum: case-control analysis within a UK primary care cohort

Objective To examine the hypothesis that risk of oesophageal, but not of gastric or colorectal, cancer is increased in users of oral bisphosphonates. Design Nested case-control analysis within a primary care cohort of about 6 million people in the UK, with prospectively recorded information on prescribing of bisphosphonates. Setting UK General Practice Research Database cohort. Participants Men and women aged 40 years or over—2954 with oesophageal cancer, 2018 with gastric cancer, and 10 641 with colorectal cancer, diagnosed in 1995-2005; five controls per case matched for age, sex, general practice, and observation time. Main outcome measures Relative risks for incident invasive cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, and colorectum, adjusted for smoking, alcohol, and body mass index. Results The incidence of oesophageal cancer was increased in people with one or more previous prescriptions for oral bisphosphonates compared with those with no such prescriptions (relative risk 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to1.66; P=0.02). Risk of oesophageal cancer was significantly higher for 10 or more prescriptions (1.93, 1.37 to 2.70) than for one to nine prescriptions (0.93, 0.66 to 1.31) (P for heterogeneity=0.002), and for use for over 3 years (on average, about 5 years: relative risk v no prescription, 2.24, 1.47 to 3.43). Risk of oesophageal cancer did not differ significantly by bisphosphonate type, and risk in those with 10 or more bisphosphonate prescriptions did not vary by age, sex, smoking, alcohol intake, or body mass index; by diagnosis of osteoporosis, fracture, or upper gastrointestinal disease; or by prescription of acid suppressants, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, or corticosteroids. Cancers of the stomach and colorectum were not associated with prescription of bisphosphonate: relative risks for one or more versus no prescriptions were 0.87 (0.64 to 1.19) and 0.87 (0.77 to 1.00). The specificity of the association for oesophageal cancer argues against methodological problems in the selection of cases and controls or in the analysis. Conclusions The risk of oesophageal cancer increased with 10 or more prescriptions for oral bisphosphonates and with prescriptions over about a five year period. In Europe and North America, the incidence of oesophageal cancer at age 60-79 is typically 1 per 1000 population over five years, and this is estimated to increase to about 2 per 1000 with five years’ use of oral bisphosphonates.

Hormonal therapy for menopause and breast-cancer risk by histological type: a cohort study and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Little information is available on how the risk of breast cancer associated with the use of hormone therapy for menopause varies by histological type. We aimed to describe such associations for eight histological types of breast cancer. METHODS Analyses are based on 1 031 224 postmenopausal women recruited in 1996-2001 into a nationwide UK cohort study, and followed for incident cancer and death. Relative risks associated with use of hormone therapy were estimated for eight histological types of breast cancer. FINDINGS During 3.6 million person-years of follow-up, 14 102 breast cancers were diagnosed, of which 13 782 (98%) had histological type recorded: 11 869 (86%) were invasive, including 8007 ductal, 1526 lobular, 365 mixed ductal-lobular, 492 tubular, 71 medullary, and 148 mucinous cancers; and 1913 (14%) were in situ, including 1443 ductal and 86 lobular cancers. The relative risks of invasive breast cancer in current users compared with never users of hormone therapy varied significantly according to tumour histology overall (p<0.0001), for users of oestrogen-only therapy (p=0.0001), and for users of oestrogen-progestagen therapy (p<0.0001). The largest relative risks in current compared with never users of hormone therapy were seen for lobular (relative risk 2.25, 95% CI 2.00-2.52), mixed ductal-lobular (2.13, 1.68-2.70), and tubular cancers (2.66, 2.16-3.28). The relative risks for ductal and mucinous cancers were 1.63 (95% CI 1.55-1.72) and 1.58 (1.08-2.31), respectively. The risk of medullary cancer was not increased (0.74, 0.43-1.28). The relative risk of in-situ disease in current users compared with never users of hormone therapy also varied significantly according to histological type (p=0.03), with a relative risk for lobular carcinoma in situ of 2.82 (1.72-4.63) and 1.56 (1.38-1.75) for ductal carcinoma in situ. The effects of hormone therapy on invasive ductal, lobular, and tubular cancer were generally greater for oestrogen-progestagen therapy than for oestrogen-only therapy, and were attenuated with increasing body-mass index (BMI). INTERPRETATION The risks associated with use of hormone therapy for menopause differ by histological type of breast cancer, and are substantially attenuated with increasing BMI.