Gina Mills

How is ozone pollution reducing our food supply

Ground-level ozone pollution is already decreasing global crop yields (from ∼2.2-5.5% for maize to 3.9-15% and 8.5-14% for wheat and soybean, respectively), to differing extents depending on genotype and environmental conditions, and this problem is predicted to escalate given climate change and increasing ozone precursor emissions in many areas. Here a summary is provided of how ozone pollution affects yield in a variety of crops, thus impacting global food security. Ozone causes visible injury symptoms to foliage; it induces early senescence and abscission of leaves; it can reduce stomatal aperture and thereby carbon uptake, and/or directly reduce photosynthetic carbon fixation; it can moderate biomass growth via carbon availability or more directly; it can decrease translocation of fixed carbon to edible plant parts (grains, fruits, pods, roots) due either to reduced availability at source, redirection to synthesis of chemical protectants, or reduced transport capabilities via phloem; decreased carbon transport to roots reduces nutrient and water uptake and affects anchorage; ozone can moderate or bring forward flowering and induce pollen sterility; it induces ovule and/or grain abortion; and finally it reduces the ability of some genotypes to withstand other stresses such as drought, high vapour pressure deficit, and high photon flux density via effects on stomatal control. This latter point is emphasized here, given predictions that atmospheric conditions conducive to drought formation that also give rise to intense precursor emission events will become more severe over the coming decades.

Evidence of ozone-induced adverse effects on crops in the Mediterranean region

Abstract The impacts of ambient ozone pollution on crops in the Mediterranean countries have been recorded regularly in the so-called “grey literature” of UN/ECE Workshop Reports for the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, and less frequently in the peer-reviewed literature. This short communication reviews such records and shows that ambient ozone episodes have been reported to cause visible injury on 24 agricultural and horticultural crops grown in commercial fields including three of the most important crops in the region (wheat, maize, and grapevine). On one occasion, the damage was so extensive that complete crop loss occurred in commercial glasshouses of Butterhead lettuce in one area of Greece. Experiments with open-top chambers have indicated that ambient ozone caused 17–39% yield loss in crops such as wheat, bean, watermelon and tomato. The applicability of the long-term critical level of ozone described by Fuhrer et al. (Environ. Pollut. 97 (1997) 91) for the Mediterranean areas is also considered.

An international cooperative programme indicates the widespread occurrence of ozone injury on crops

The UN/ECE ICP-Vegetation 1 routinely investigates the effects of ambient ozone pollution on crops throughout Europe. Each year, a series of co-ordinated ambient air experiments are conducted over a large area of Europe and a range of crop species are observed for the occurrence of injury following ozone episodes. In 1995 and 1996, ozone injury was observed at sites throughout Europe from United Kingdom (Nottingham) to the Russian Federation (Moscow) and from Sweden (Ostad) to Italy (Naples). The only site participating in the ICP-Vegetation where it was not observed was that at Finland (Jokioinen). Injury was identified on subterranean and white clover, French bean, soybean, tomato, and watermelon at one or more sites. Injury was also detected in gardens and on crops growing in commercial fields. Two short-term critical levels which incorporate ozone dose and air saturation vapour pressure deficit (VPD) were derived from the 1995 data. These were (i) an AOT40 2 of 200 ppb.h over 5 days when mean VPD (0930‐1630 h) is below 1.5 kPa and (ii) an AOT40 of 500 ppb.h over 5 days when mean VPD (0930‐1630 h) is above 1.5 kPa. In general, the 1996 data supported these critical levels although injury did occur on two occasions when the AOT40 was less than 50 ppb.h, and the VPD was less than 0.6 kPa. Thus, ICP-Vegetation experiments have shown that ozone injury can occur over much of Europe and that plants are most at risk in conditions of high atmospheric humidity. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling complex environmental data

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used to model the interactions that occur between ozone pollution, climatic conditions, and the sensitivity of crops and other plants to ozone. A number of generic methods for analysis and modeling are presented. These methods are applicable to the modeling and analysis of any data where an effect (in this case damage to plants) is caused by a number of variables that have a nonlinear influence. Multilayer perceptron ANNs are used to model data from a number of sources and analysis of the trained optimized models determines the accuracy of the models predictions. The models are sufficiently general and accurate to be employed as decision support systems by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) in determining the critical acceptable levels of ozone in Europe. Comparison is made of the accuracy of predictions for a number of modeling approaches. It is shown that the ANN approach is more accurate than other methods and that the use of principal components analysis on the inputs can improve the model. The validation of the models relies on more than simply an error measure on the test data. The relative importance of the causal agents in the model is established in the first instance by summing absolute weight values. This indicates whether the model is consistent with domain knowledge. The application of a range of conditions to the model then allows predictions to be made about the nonlinear influences of the individual principal inputs and of combinations of two inputs viewed as a three-dimensional graph. Equations are synthesized from the ANN to represent the model in an explicit mathematical form. Models are formed with essential parameters and other inputs are added as necessary, in order of decreasing priority, until an acceptable error level is reached. Secondary indicators substituting for primary indicators with which they are strongly correlated can be removed. From the synthesized equations both known and novel aspects of the process modeled can be identified. Known effects validate the model. Novel effects form the basis of hypotheses which can then be tested.

Nitrogen concentrations in mosses indicate the spatial distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Europe

In 2005/6, nearly 3000 moss samples from (semi-)natural location across 16 European countries were collected for nitrogen analysis. The lowest total nitrogen concentrations in mosses (<0.8%) were observed in northern Finland and northern UK. The highest concentrations (≥ 1.6%) were found in parts of Belgium, France, Germany, Slovakia, Slovenia and Bulgaria. The asymptotic relationship between the nitrogen concentrations in mosses and EMEP modelled nitrogen deposition (averaged per 50 km × 50 km grid) across Europe showed less scatter when there were at least five moss sampling sites per grid. Factors potentially contributing to the scatter are discussed. In Switzerland, a strong (r(2) = 0.91) linear relationship was found between the total nitrogen concentration in mosses and measured site-specific bulk nitrogen deposition rates. The total nitrogen concentrations in mosses complement deposition measurements, helping to identify areas in Europe at risk from high nitrogen deposition at a high spatial resolution.

Terrestrial mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric POPs pollution: a review

Worldwide there is concern about the continuing release of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) into the environment. In this study we review the application of mosses as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition of POPs. Examples in the literature show that mosses are suitable organisms to monitor spatial patterns and temporal trends of atmospheric concentrations or deposition of POPs. These examples include polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The majority of studies report on PAHs concentrations in mosses and relative few studies have been conducted on other POPs. So far, many studies have focused on spatial patterns around pollution sources or the concentration in mosses in remote areas such as the polar regions, as an indication of long-range transport of POPs. Very few studies have determined temporal trends or have directly related the concentrations in mosses with measured atmospheric concentrations and/or deposition fluxes.

Country-specific correlations across Europe between modelled atmospheric cadmium and lead deposition and concentrations in mosses

Previous analyses at the European scale have shown that cadmium and lead concentrations in mosses are primarily determined by the total deposition of these metals. Further analyses in the current study show that Spearman rank correlations between the concentration in mosses and the deposition modelled by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) are country and metal-specific. Significant positive correlations were found for about two thirds or more of the participating countries in 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 (except for Cd in 1990). Correlations were often not significant and sometimes negative in countries where mosses were only sampled in a relatively small number of EMEP grids. Correlations frequently improved when only data for EMEP grids with at least three moss sampling sites per grid were included. It was concluded that spatial patterns and temporal trends agree reasonably well between lead and cadmium concentrations in mosses and modelled atmospheric deposition.

Heavy metal and nitrogen concentrations in mosses are declining across Europe whilst some “hotspots” remain in 2010

In recent decades, naturally growing mosses have been used successfully as biomonitors of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen. Since 1990, the European moss survey has been repeated at five-yearly intervals. In 2010, the lowest concentrations of metals and nitrogen in mosses were generally found in northern Europe, whereas the highest concentrations were observed in (south-)eastern Europe for metals and the central belt for nitrogen. Averaged across Europe, since 1990, the median concentration in mosses has declined the most for lead (77%), followed by vanadium (55%), cadmium (51%), chromium (43%), zinc (34%), nickel (33%), iron (27%), arsenic (21%, since 1995), mercury (14%, since 1995) and copper (11%). Between 2005 and 2010, the decline ranged from 6% for copper to 36% for lead; for nitrogen the decline was 5%. Despite the Europe-wide decline, no changes or increases have been observed between 2005 and 2010 in some (regions of) countries.

New flux based dose–response relationships for ozone for European forest tree species

To derive O3 dose-response relationships (DRR) for five European forest trees species and broadleaf deciduous and needleleaf tree plant functional types (PFTs), phytotoxic O3 doses (PODy) were related to biomass reductions. PODy was calculated using a stomatal flux model with a range of cut-off thresholds (y) indicative of varying detoxification capacities. Linear regression analysis showed that DRR for PFT and individual tree species differed in their robustness. A simplified parameterisation of the flux model was tested and showed that for most non-Mediterranean tree species, this simplified model led to similarly robust DRR as compared to a species- and climate region-specific parameterisation. Experimentally induced soil water stress was not found to substantially reduce PODy, mainly due to the short duration of soil water stress periods. This study validates the stomatal O3 flux concept and represents a step forward in predicting O3 damage to forests in a spatially and temporally varying climate.

Phenological weighting of ozone exposures in the calculation of critical levels for wheat, bean and plantain.

This paper presents phenological weighting factors to be applied to AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure above a threshold of 40 nl l(-1)) ozone exposure-response relationships for crops at different growth stages. The quantification of such factors represents a step-forward in the derivation of Level II critical levels for ozone. The weighting factors presented are derived from published literature on the sensitivity of wheat (Triticum aestivum), bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) and plantain (Plantago major) to ozone at different growth stages. Weighting functions were calculated using either multiple linear regression or the reciprocal residual mean square (RMS(-1)). The resulting weights were transformed into multiplication factors to be applied to the monthly AOT40 during the 3-month assessment period of critical level exceedance. Interspecific differences were too large to allow for the development of a unified weighting function for the three species considered. For wheat grain yield, the derived multiplication factors varied by almost four-fold (0.40, 1.06, 1.54), while those for bean pod yield varied by only about 25% (0.85, 1.01, 1.14). The available data for plantain were restricted to short-term studies conducted under controlled conditions. These data were not suitable for the derivation of weighting factors comparable to those derived for bean and wheat. Based on known differences in wheat development and phenology across Europe, the need for a geographic differentiation of the time period for the calculation of the critical level exceedances is also discussed and examples provided of the adoption of the derived weightings in the mapping of critical level exceedances. Differences between critical level exceedance maps using weighted and unweighted AOT40 calculations are discussed.