Gino Casassa

Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf

acceleration exceeds 27 km 3 per year, and ice is thinning at rates of tens of meters per year. We attribute this abrupt evolution of the glaciers to the removal of the buttressing ice shelf. The magnitude of the glacier changes illustrates the importance of ice shelves on ice sheet mass balance and contribution to sea level change. INDEX TERMS: 1827 Hydrology: Glaciology (1863); 1863 Hydrology: Snow and ice (1827); 3349 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Polar meteorology; 6924 Radio Science: Interferometry; 9310 Information Related to Geographic Region: Antarctica. Citation: Rignot, E., G. Casassa, P. Gogineni, W. Krabill, A. Rivera, and R. Thomas (2004), Accelerated ice discharge from the Antarctic Peninsula following the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L18401, doi:10.1029/ 2004GL020697.

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate, and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ~6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between AD1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the Peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the Peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multi-decadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multi-decadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4° ± 1oC, and sea ice extent will decrease by ~30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questions about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earths climate and oceans.

Weather Observations Across the Southern Andes at 53°S

Regional variations of weather pattern were analyzed along a west-to-east profile across the Southern Andes (53°S), one of the most pronounced climate-divides in the world. For the first time we present a meteorological record from an array of three automatic weather stations (AWS), operated by the authors, for the central part of the climate divide which, together with previously existing Chilean weather stations, complete the transect. These data cover a time period of 3 yr. from October 1999 until September 2002. Air temperatures along the profile are highly correlated. Annual precipitation drops from between 6000 mm and 7000 mm at sea level along the main divide of the mountains to only about 1000 mm at the eastern slopes of the Andes and to as little as 430 mm at Punta Arenas. The variations of rainfall with wind direction and synoptic weather types are markedly different between the central part of the Andes and Punta Arenas. At the center of the climate divide precipitation correlates positively with wind speed from the west, whereas at Punta Arenas, east of the Andes, higher rainfall rates occur with easterly air flow. It is assumed that this reflects the barrier effect of the mountain range of the Andes. The results indicate that in order to make references about present or past climatic variations in Patagonia, it is essential to consider the effect of changes in circulation patterns.

Recent ice loss from the Fleming and other glaciers, Wordie Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula

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Use of remotely sensed and field data to estimate the contribution of Chilean glaciers to eustatic sea-level rise

Abstract A synthesis of glaciological studies carried out in Chile during recent decades is presented, including inventories and records of glacier variations, fluctuations of which are related to regional climate change and their contribution to eustatic sea-level rise. Based upon satellite imagery, aerial photographs and historical records, new data for 20 glaciers are presented. These new data are combined with previous records to cover the historical variations of 95 Chilean glaciers. Of these glaciers, only 6% show a net advance during the study period, 6% show no significant change, while 88% have retreated. The contribution of Chilean glaciers to eustatic sea-level rise has been estimated to be approximately 8.2% of the worldwide contribution of small glaciers on Earth during the last 51 years. Most of the glacier variations are thought to have been driven by a temperature increase, which has been documented by several stations in Chile. Anomalies in rainfall, and the decreasing trend in annual precipitation shown at a few stations, have probably also contributed to glacier recession. Based on observed climatic trends, it is expected that the glacier retreat will continue, that the mass balance will continue to show a negative trend and that thinning rates will increase. All of these changes will ultimately affect the availability of water resources in Chile that depend on glacierized basins.

Force-perturbation analysis of Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica, suggests cause for recent acceleration

Abstract Pine Island Glacier, flowing into the Amundsen Sea from West Antarctica, thinned substantially during the 1990s, its grounding line receded by several km, and its velocity increased by >10% to values approaching 3 km a–1. Here, we use these observations, together with estimates of ice thickness and surface strain rates, to estimate the perturbation in forces resisting ice flow compatible with the observations. The analysis assumes that such perturbations are transmitted far upstream from where they originate, and that creep response to the perturbations can be described by equations similar to those that govern ice-shelf creep. It indicates that observed acceleration between 1996 and 2000 could have been caused by progressive ungrounding within the most seaward 25 km ‘ice plain’ of the grounded glacier. Earlier retreat and thinning of the glacier’s floating ice shelf may have provided the conditions that initiated ungrounding of the ice plain. Our analysis indicates that continued ice-plain thinning at the current rate of about 2 ma–1 will result in a velocity increase by 1 km a–1 within the next 11 years as the ice plain becomes totally ungrounded.

Meteorological and Climatological Aspects of the Southern Patagonia Icefield

The Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI) is located at mid-latitudes in southern South America, which is dominated by the westerly regime and frontal systems. This results in a high frequency of cloudy days (more than 70% of the time) and precipitation events. Analyses of air temperature and precipitation data from southern meteorological stations for the past century indicate an overall warming and decrease in precipitation until the mid-80’s, but no significant changes are observed afterwards. In fact, the coastal stations show an increase in precipitation after the 1980’s. The mid-term behavior of the atmospheric variables introduces uncertainties in predicting the consequences of future climate change in southern South America.

Secular trend of the equilibrium-line altitude on the western side of the southern Andes, derived from radiosonde and surface observations

The altitude of the 08C isotherm obtained from radiosonde data of the aerological Chilean stations Antofagasta, Quintero/Santo Domingo, Puerto Montt and Punta Arenas are analyzed, along with surface temperature and precipitation records from nearby stations. The strong effect of the 1976/ 77 climate shift due to a change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is evident in the temperature and precipitation data. The data are used as input for an empirical model which reconstructs annually the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) for the last 49 years on the western side of the southern Andes. The model takes air temperature, precipitation and altitude as the main parameters, and was first developed by Fox (1993) and applied by Condom and others (2007). From the radiosonde data, a significant positive trend of the 08C isotherm has occurred in the northern, central and southern regions, indicating an ELA rise due to regional warming. General glacier retreat, ice thinning and negative mass balance observed during the past few decades in virtually all the Chilean Andes concur with the observed ELA reconstruction. In the Punta Arenas radiosonde record there is slight evidence for precipitation increase but no evidence for significant warming in the past few decades. This results in a slight lowering of the ELA according to the model reconstruction, which does not agree with the strong and increased glacier retreat observed in recent decades in Patagonia.

Ice-elevation changes of Glaciar Chico, southern Patagonia, using ASTER DEMs, aerial photographs and GPS data

Hielo Patagonico Sur (HPS; southern Patagonia icefield) is the largest temperate ice mass at mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. With few exceptions, the glaciers in this region have been retreating during the last 50 years. Based on field data, vertical aerial photographs and satellite images, ice-elevation changes since 1975 on Glaciar Chico, one of the main tongues of HPS, are presented. A maximum ice thinning of 5.4 0.55 m a -1 was observed at the glacier front between 1975 and 1997. Global positioning system (GPS) data were used in the accumulation area of the glacier to infer a thinning rate of 1.9 0.14 m a -1 between 1998 and 2001. This thinning rate is three times higher than the snow accumulation rate estimated for that part of the glacier. A mean net glacier mass balance of -0.29 0.097 km 3 w.e. a -1 was estimated between 1975 and 2001. Climate data suggest an increase in temperature and a reduction in precipitation during most of the 20th century in the vicinity of HPS. Although these climate changes are the primary explanation for the observed ice-elevation changes of the glacier, ice-dynamics effects are also believed to play an important role.

Improved estimation of the mass balance of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica from the CECS/NASA 2002 campaign

Abstract In November–December 2002, a joint airborne experiment by Centro de Estudios Cientifícos and NASA flew over the Antarctic ice sheet to collect laser altimetry and radio-echo sounding data over glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea. A P-3 aircraft on loan from the Chilean Navy made four flights over Pine Island, Thwaites, Pope, Smith and Kohler glaciers, with each flight yielding 1.5–2 hours of data. The thickness measurements reveal that these glaciers flow into deep troughs, which extend far inland, implying a high potential for rapid retreat. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar data (InSAR) and satellite altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS-1/-2) show rapid grounding-line retreat and ice thinning of these glaciers. Using the new thickness data, we have reevaluated glacier fluxes and the present state of mass balance, which was previously estimated using ice thicknesses deduced largely from inversion of elevation data assuming hydrostatic equilibrium. The revised total ice discharge of 241 ± 5km3 a–1 exceeds snow accumulation by 81 ± 17 km3 a–1 of ice, equivalent to a sea-level rise of 0.21 ± 0.04 mma–1. This magnitude of ice loss is too large to be caused by atmospheric forcing and implies dynamic thinning of the glaciers. This is confirmed by ice-flow acceleration observed with InSAR. We attribute the flow acceleration and ice thinning to enhanced bottom melting of the ice shelves by a warmer ocean, which reduces buttressing of the glaciers, and in turn accelerates them out of balance.