Giordano Mion

Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis?

We investigate the 20082009 trade collapse using microdata from a small open economy, Belgium. Belgian exports and imports mostly fell because of smaller quantities sold and unit prices charged rather than fewer firms, trading partners, and products being involved in trade. Our difference-in-difference results point to a fall in the demand for tradables as the main driver of the collapse. Finance and involvement in global value chains played a minor role. Firm-level exports-to-turnover and imports-to-intermediates ratios reveal a comparable collapse of domestic and cross-border operations. Overall, our results reject a crisis of cross-border trade per se.

Trade Integration, Firm Selection and the Costs of Non-Europe

In models with heterogeneous firms trade integration has a positive impact on aggregate productivity through the selection of the best firms as import competition drives the least productive ones out of the market. To quantify the impact of firm selection on productivity, we calibrate and simulate a multi-country multi-sector model with monopolistic competition and variable markups using firm-level data and aggregate trade figures on a panel of 11 EU countries. We find that EU trade has a sizeable impact on aggregate productivity. In 2000 the introduction of prohibitive trade barriers would have caused an average productivity loss of roughly 13 per cent, whereas a reduction of intra-EU trade costs by 5 per cent would have generated a productivity gain of roughly 2 per cent. Productivity losses and gains, however, vary a lot across countries and sectors depending on market accessibility and trade costs. We provide evidence that our results are robust to alternative distance and productivity measures.

The Determinants of Intra-Firm Trade

How successful is the theory of the firm in explaining intra-firm trade? To answer this question we exploit a unique dataset of 1,141,393 French import transactions, spanning across firm, countries and products in 1999, and reporting whether a transaction is intra-firm. Overall, we find support for the main predictions of the partial equilibrium property-rights approach and further deliver facts that can be useful for further theoretical development. We document substantial within-industry heterogeneity while providing evidence of the importance of the firm dimension of sourcing choices as well as of the key distinction between the extensive and intensive margins.

The Determinants of Intrafirm Trade: Evidence from French Firms

How well does the theory of the firm explain the choice between intrafirm and arms-length trade? This paper uses firm-level import data from France to look into this question. We find support for three key predictions of property rights theories of the multinational firm. Intrafirm imports are more likely in capital- and skill-intensive firms, in highly productive firms, and from countries with well-functioning judicial institutions. We bridge previous aggregate findings with our investigation by decomposing intrafirm imports into an extensive and intensive margin and uncover interesting patterns in the data that require further theoretical investigation.

TRADE, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY: TRADE, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

We develop a general equilibrium monopolistic competition model in which wages, productivity, consumption diversity, and markups respond to trade integration. We structurally estimate the model and simulate the impacts of removing all trade barriers generated by the Canada–U.S. border. Firm selection gets tougher by 8.09% in Canada and by 0.80% in the United States. Markups that consumers face, which are central to welfare, fall by up to 12.11% in Canadian provinces and by up to 2.82% in U.S. states. However, changes in markups measured at the firm level are ambiguous, thus providing a different piece of information.

Industry reallocations in a globalizing economy

Industry reallocations in a globalizing economy - We present the main insights from recent developments in New Trade Theory (NTT) on firms’ responses to globalisation and their implications for the reallocation of resources across firms and countries. In so doing, we do not want to propose a survey of the major contributions to NTT. We prefer, instead, to propose a simple twocountry partial equilibrium model that highlights the key features of NTT while bypassing most of its complexities. Both exports and foreign direct investment (henceforth, FDI) are considered, which makes the model also a useful pedagogical tool. Keywords: international integration; resource reallocation; economic geography; firm heterogeneity; multinationals. JEL Classification: F12