Giorgio Topa

Social Interactions, Local Spillovers and Unemployment

I analyse a model that explicitly incorporates local interactions and allows agents to exchange information about job openings within their social networks. Agents are more likely to be employed if their social contacts are also employed. The model generates a stationary distribution of unemployment that exhibits positive spatial correlations. I estimate the model via an indirect inference procedure, using Census Tract data for Chicago. I find a significantly positive amount of social interactions across neighbouring tracts. The local spillovers are stronger for areas with less educated workers and higher fractions of minorities. Furthermore, they are shaped by ethnic dividing lines and neighbourhood boundaries.

Does microcredit reach the poor and vulnerable? Evidence from northern Bangladesh

Subsidized loans have a history of being diverted to the rich. Yet recently microcredit programs, such as the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, have become popular among donors and governments as a way to channel funds to the poor. This paper uses a unique panel dataset from two Bangladeshi villages to test if the modern microcredit movement is different from its predecessors. Poverty is measured by levels of consumption. Vulnerability is measured as fluctuations in consumption associated with inefficient risk sharing. We find that subsidized credit is largely successful at reaching the poor and vulnerable. The probability that a microcredit member is below the poverty line is substantially higher than that of a randomly picked household in both villages. In the village where female headed households were found to be vulnerable, nearly half of the female headed households belonged to microcredit programs yet only a quarter of male headed households were microcredit members. While restricting loans to the landless is not effective in reaching the poor and vulnerable, targeting female headed households is.

Religious Intermarriage and Socialization in the United States

This paper presents an empirical analysis of a choice‐theoretic model of cultural transmission. In particular, we use data from the General Social Survey to estimate the structural parameters of a model of marriage and child socialization along religious lines in the United States. The observed intermarriage and socialization rates are consistent with Protestants, Catholics, and Jews having a strong preference for children who identify with their own religious beliefs and making costly decisions to influence their children’s religious beliefs. Our estimates imply dynamics of the shares of religious traits in the population that are in sharp contrast with the predictions obtained by linear extrapolations from current intermarriage rates.

Neighborhood Effects: Accomplishments and Looking Beyond Them

The paper addresses the empirical significance of the social context in economic decisions. Decisions of individuals who share spatial and social milieus are likely to be interdependent, and econometric identification of social effects poses intricate data and methodological problems, including dealing with self-selection in spatial and social groups. It uses a simple empirical framework to introduce social interactions effects at different levels of aggregation, and examines estimation problems in linear models, the impact of self-selection and of nonlinearities. It also examines neighborhood effects in job matching and proposes a research agenda that offers new techniques and data sources.

Cooperation as a transmitted cultural trait

In this paper, we study an endogenous cultural selection mechanism for cooperative behavior in a setting where agents are randomly matched in a one-shot interaction Prisoner’s Dilemma, and may or may not have complete information about their opponent’s preferences. We focus on an endogenous socialization mechanism in which parents spend costly effort to transmit directly their trait to their offspring, taking into account the impact of (oblique) societal pressures on cultural transmission. For various ranges of parameter values, this mechanism generates a polymorphic population with a long-run presence of cooperative agents, even where replicator and indirect evolutionary mechanisms would bring about a monomorphic population with non-cooperation. Further, under some circumstances, the long-run fraction of cooperative agents is shown to be larger under incomplete than complete information.

Labor Markets and Referrals

Abstract The use of social networks and personal referrals in the labor market is very widespread. Both firms and workers may find it beneficial to use these informal channels to produce successful matches between job seekers and vacancies. This Chapter discusses the existing literature and highlights the most robust results. It describes the theoretical literature on the use of informal search methods, both in a micro and in a macro setting, as well as the empirical findings in this area. The empirical evidence comes both from direct surveys of workers and firms and from indirect estimates that exploit structural modeling as well as natural experiments. Finally, the Chapter discusses open questions and possible avenues for future research. JEL Codes: C21, D21, J64, R23

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND BEHAVIOR: DO SURVEY RESPONDENTS ACT ON THEIR BELIEFS?

We compare the inflation expectations reported by consumers in a survey with their behavior in a financially incentivized investment experiment. The survey is found to be informative in the sense that the beliefs reported by the respondents are correlated with their choices in the experiment. More importantly, we find evidence that most respondents act on their inflation expectations showing patterns consistent with economic theory. Respondents whose behavior cannot be rationalized tend to have lower education and lower numeracy and financial literacy. These findings help confirm the relevance of inflation expectations surveys and provide support to the microfoundations of modern macroeconomic models.

Do Informal Referrals Lead to Better Matches? Evidence from a Firm's Employee Referral System

Using a new firm-level data set that includes explicit information on referrals by current employees, we investigate the hiring process and the relationships among referrals, match quality, wage trajectories, and turnover for a single US corporation and test various predictions of theoretical models of labor market referrals. We find that referred candidates are more likely to be hired; experience an initial wage advantage, which dissipates over time; and have longer tenure in the firm. Further, the variances of the referred and nonreferred wage distributions converge over time. The observed referral effects appear to be stronger at lower skill levels. The data also permit analysis of the role of referrer-referee pair characteristics.

Empirical Models of Cultural Transmission

This paper reviews several issues concerning an empirical analysis of the endogenous formation of preferences, as well as cognitive and psychological traits. In particular we show by means of examples how, with existing data, it is possible to identify empirically the distinct influence of family and society at large in the determination of cultural traits, and to disentangle genetic inheritability from cultural and environmental factors determining cognitive and psychological traits. (JEL: I2, Z1, D9) Copyright (c) 2003 The European Economic Association.

Neighborhood and Network Effects

In this chapter, we provide an overview of research on neighborhoods and social networks and their role in shaping behavior and economic outcomes. We include discussion of empirical and theoretical analyses of the role of neighborhoods and social networks in crime, education and labor-market outcomes. In particular, we discuss in detail identification problems in peer, neighborhood and network effects and the policy implications of integrating the social and the geographical space, especially for ethnic minorities.