Giorgos Mallinis

On the relationships between forest fires and weather conditions in Greece from long-term national observations (1894–2010)

Historical fire records and meteorological observations, spanning more than 1 century (1894–2010), were gathered and assembled in a database, to provide long-term fire–weather associations. We investigated the relationships between forest fire activity and meteorological parameters and sought to find temporal patterns and trends in these historical records and to identify any linkages between meteorological parameters and fire occurrence in the eastern Mediterranean region. Trend analysis of the time series revealed a statistically significant increase in the number of fires and air temperature, particularly after the mid-1970s. Fire occurrence, expressed as the annual number of fires and total burnt area, was strongly correlated with the mean maximum and the absolute maximum air temperature which, in turn, was related to the occurrence of summer heat waves. Total burnt area was also strongly negatively correlated with fire-season precipitation, and positively correlated with 2-year-lagged annual and summer precipitation, underlying the effect of precipitation in controlling fuel production and moisture. These findings support the argument that although annually lagged precipitation totals may have a marginal effect on fire risk by influencing biomass production and accumulation, the lag0 weather parameters are the main drivers of fire spread by directly controlling fuel moisture.

SVM-Based Fuzzy Decision Trees for Classification of High Spatial Resolution Remote Sensing Images

A novel fuzzy decision tree is proposed in this paper (the FDT-support vector machine (SVM) classifier), where the node discriminations are implemented via binary SVMs. The tree structure is determined via a class grouping algorithm, which forms the groups of classes to be separated at each internal node, based on the degree of fuzzy confusion between the classes. In addition, effective feature selection is incorporated within the tree building process, selecting suitable feature subsets required for the node discriminations individually. FDT-SVM exhibits a number of attractive merits such as enhanced classification accuracy, interpretable hierarchy, and low model complexity. Furthermore, it provides hierarchical image segmentation and has reasonably low computational and data storage demands. Our approach is tested on two different tasks: natural forest classification using a QuickBird multispectral image and urban classification using hyperspectral data. Exhaustive experimental investigation demonstrates that FDT-SVM is favorably compared with six existing methods, including traditional multiclass SVMs and SVM-based binary hierarchical trees. Comparative analysis is carried out in terms of testing rates, architecture complexity, and computational times required for the operative phase.

A Hidden Markov Models Approach for Crop Classification: Linking Crop Phenology to Time Series of Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing Data

Vegetation monitoring and mapping based on multi-temporal imagery has recently received much attention due to the plethora of medium-high spatial resolution satellites and the improved classification accuracies attained compared to uni-temporal approaches. Efficient image processing strategies are needed to exploit the phenological information present in temporal image sequences and to limit data redundancy and computational complexity. Within this framework, we implement the theory of Hidden Markov Models in crop classification, based on the time-series analysis of phenological states, inferred by a sequence of remote sensing observations. More specifically, we model the dynamics of vegetation over an agricultural area of Greece, characterized by spatio-temporal heterogeneity and small-sized fields, using RapidEye and Landsat ETM+ imagery. In addition, the classification performance of image sequences with variable spatial and temporal characteristics is evaluated and compared. The classification model considering one RapidEye and four pan-sharpened Landsat ETM+ images was found superior, resulting in a conditional kappa from 0.77 to 0.94 per class and an overall accuracy of 89.7%. The results highlight the potential of the method for operational crop mapping in Euro-Mediterranean areas and provide some hints for optimal image acquisition windows regarding major crop types in Greece.

Comparing ten classification methods for burned area mapping in a Mediterranean environment using Landsat TM satellite data

Various methods have been developed during the past three decades to improve the classification accuracy in burned area mapping using satellite data captured by different sensors. In this article, we compare ten such classification approaches using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery on three Mediterranean test sites by evaluating the classification accuracy using (i) a traditional pixel-based approach, (ii) the concept of the Pareto boundary of efficient solution and (iii) linear regression analysis. Additionally, we make a discrimination of errors depending on their distribution and causal factor. The classification approaches compared resulted in not statistically significant differences in the accuracy of the burned area maps. Differences between the methods were also observed when considering the accuracy along the edges of the burned patches; however, again these were not statistically significant. The findings of our study in a Mediterranean environment clearly demonstrate that, for the selection of the most suitable classification approach, other factors could be given more weight, such as computational resources, imagery characteristics, availability of ancillary data, available software and the analysts experience. Maybe the most important finding of our work is that the variance imposed by the methods is less than the variance imposed by factors differentiated locally in the three study sites since the between-group variance of the overall accuracy is higher than that of the within groups.

Wildfire Risk Assessment in a Typical Mediterranean Wildland–Urban Interface of Greece

The purpose of this study was to assess spatial wildfire risk in a typical Mediterranean wildland–urban interface (WUI) in Greece and the potential effect of three different burning condition scenarios on the following four major wildfire risk components: burn probability, conditional flame length, fire size, and source–sink ratio. We applied the Minimum Travel Time fire simulation algorithm using the FlamMap and ArcFuels tools to characterize the potential response of the wildfire risk to a range of different burning scenarios. We created site-specific fuel models of the study area by measuring the field fuel parameters in representative natural fuel complexes, and we determined the spatial extent of the different fuel types and residential structures in the study area using photointerpretation procedures of large scale natural color orthophotographs. The results included simulated spatially explicit fire risk components along with wildfire risk exposure analysis and the expected net value change. Statistical significance differences in simulation outputs between the scenarios were obtained using Tukey’s significance test. The results of this study provide valuable information for decision support systems for short-term predictions of wildfire risk potential and inform wildland fire management of typical WUI areas in Greece.

An object-based approach for flood area delineation in a transboundary area using ENVISAT ASAR and LANDSAT TM data

The aim of this study was to develop a straightforward approach for flood area mapping in a transboundary riverbed using Geographic Object-Based Image Analysis. Weak bilateral/multilateral cooperation among neighboring countries hampers effective disaster management and mitigation activities over transboundary areas and strengthens the demand for reliable remote-sensing-derived information. Three object-based classification approaches using ENVISAT/ASAR and multi-temporal LANDSAT TM data were developed and validated for flood area delineation. The accuracy assessment of the classification results was based on oblique air photo interpretation and an area-based comparison with the official flood map. The bi-level object-based model using the Normalized Difference Water Index and the original post-flood TM bands attained 92.67% overall accuracy in inundated-areas detection, while the ENVISAT/ASAR classification was the least accurate (85.33%), probably due to the lower spatial resolution of the Synthetic Aperture Radar image. A strong agreement (92.14%) was found between the LANDSAT flood extent and the official flood map, suggesting that the proposed method has the potential to be employed in the future as a standard part of a flood crisis management process.

A rule-based semi-automatic method to map burned areas: exploring the USGS historical Landsat archives to reconstruct recent fire history

This study presents a new semi-automatic method to map burned areas by using multi-temporal Land Remote Sensing Satellite Program (Landsat) Thematic Mapper (TM) and Enhanced TM Plus (ETM+) images. The method consists of a set of rules that are valid especially when the post-fire satellite image has been captured shortly after the fire event. The overall accuracy of the method when applied to two case studies in Mt Parnitha and Samos Island in Greece were 95.69% and 93.98%, respectively. The commission and omission errors for Mt Parnitha were 6.92% and 10.24%, while those for Samos Island were 3.97% and 8.80%, respectively. Between the two types of error, it is preferred to minimize omission errors, since commission errors can be easily identified as part of product quality assessment and algorithm tuning procedures. The rule-based approach minimizes human interventions and makes it possible to run the mapping algorithm for a series of images that would otherwise need extensive time investment. In case of failure to capture burned areas correctly, it is possible either to make some adjustments by modifying the thresholding coefficients of the rules, or to discard some of the rules, since some editing is usually required to correct errors following the automated extraction procedures. When this method was applied to a series of US Geological Survey (USGS) Landsat TM and ETM+ archived satellite images covering the periods 1984–1991 and 1999–2009, a total of 1773 fires were identified and mapped from six different scenes that covered Attica and the Peloponnese in Greece. The majority of uncaptured burned areas corresponded to fires with size classes of 0–1 ha and 1–5 ha, where the loss in capturing fire scars is generally significant. This was expected since it is possible that small fires, identified and recorded by forest authorities, may not have been captured by satellite data due to limitations arising either from the spatial resolution of the sensor or imposed by the temporal series, which do not systematically cover the full period.

Monitoring land use/land cover transformations from 1945 to 2007 in two peri-urban mountainous areas of Athens metropolitan area, Greece

The aims of this study were to map and analyze land use/land cover transitions and landscape changes in the Parnitha and Penteli mountains, which surround the Athens metropolitan area of Attica, Greece over a period of 62 years. In order to quantify the changes between land categories through time, we computed the transition matrices for three distinct periods (1945-1960, 1960-1996, and 1996-2007), on the basis of available aerial photographs used to create multi-temporal maps. We identified systematic and stationary transitions with multi-level intensity analysis. Forest areas in Parnitha remained the dominant class of land cover throughout the 62 years studied, while transitional woodlands and shrublands were the main classes involved in LULC transitions. Conversely, in Penteli, transitional woodlands, along with shrublands, dominated the study site. The annual rate of change was faster in the first and third time intervals, compared to the second (1960-1996) time interval, in both study areas. The category level analysis results indicated that in both sites annual crops avoided to gain while discontinuous urban fabric avoided to lose areas. At the transition level of analysis, similarities as well as distinct differences existed between the two areas. In both sites the gaining pattern of permanent crops with respect to annual crops and the gain of forest with respect to transitional woodland/shrublands were stationary across the three time intervals. Overall, we identified more systematic transitions and stationary processes in Penteli. We discussed these LULC changes and associated them with human interference (activity) and other major socio-economic developments that were simultaneously occurring in the area. The different patterns of change of the areas, despite their geographical proximity, throughout the period of analysis imply that site-specific studies are needed in order to comprehensively assess the driving forces and develop models of landscape transformation in Mediterranean areas.

A Comparative Analysis of EO-1 Hyperion, Quickbird and Landsat TM Imagery for Fuel Type Mapping of a Typical Mediterranean Landscape

Forest fires constitute a natural disturbance factor and an agent of environmental change with local to global impacts on Earth’s processes and functions. Accurate knowledge of forest fuel extent and properties can be an effective component for assessing the impacts of possible future wildfires on ecosystem services. Our study aims to evaluate and compare the spectral and spatial information inherent in the EO-1 Hyperion, Quickbird and Landsat TM imagery. The analysis was based on a support vector machine classification approach in order to discriminate and map Mediterranean fuel types. The fuel classification scheme followed a site-specific fuel model within the study area, which is suitable for fire behavior prediction and spatial simulation. The overall accuracy of the Quickbird-based fuel type mapping was higher than 74% with a quantity disagreement of 9% and an allocation disagreement of 17%. Both classifications from the Hyperion and Landsat TM fuel type maps presented approximately 70% overall accuracy and 16% allocation disagreement. The McNemar’s test indicated that the overall accuracy differences between the three produced fuel type maps were not significant (p < 0.05). Based on both overall and individual higher accuracies obtained with the use of the Quickbird image, this study suggests that the high spatial resolution might be more decisive than the high spectral resolution in Mediterranean fuel type mapping.

Assessment of Post-fire Soil Erosion Risk in Fire-Affected Watersheds Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Soil erosion is a prominent cause of land degradation and desertification in Mediterranean countries. The detrimental effects of soil erosion are exemplified in climate (in particular climate change), topography, human activities, and natural disasters. Forest fires, which are an integral part of Mediterranean ecosystems, are responsible for the destruction of above-and below-ground vegetation that protects against soil erosion. Under this perspective, the estimation of potential soil erosion, especially after fire events, is critical for identifying watersheds that require management to prevent sediment loss, flooding, and increased ecosystem degradation. The objective of this study was to model the potential post-fire soil erosion risk following a large and intensive wildland fire, in order to prioritize protection and management actions at the watershed level in a Mediterranean landscape. Burn severity and preand post-fire land cover/uses were mapped using an ASTER image acquired two years before the fire, air photos acquired shortly after the fire, and a Landsat TM image acquired within one month after-fire. We estimated pre-and post-fire sediment loss using an integrated GIS-based approach, and additionally we analyzed landscape erosion patterns. The overall accuracy of the severity map reached 83%. Severe and heavy potential erosion classes covered approximately 90% of the total area following the fire, compared to 55% before. The fire had a profound effect on the spatial erosion pattern by altering the distribution of the potential erosion classes in 21 out of 24 watersheds, and seven watersheds were identified as being the most vulnerable to post-fire soil erosion. The spatial pattern of the erosion process is important because landscape cover heterogeneity induced especially by fire is a dominant factor controlling runoff generation and erosion rate, and should be considered in post-fire erosion risk assessment.