Giovanni Barone-Adesi

VaR without correlations for portfolios of derivative securities

We propose filtering historical simulation by GARCH processes to model the future distribution of assets and swap values. Options’ price changes are computed by full reevaluation on the changing prices of underlying assets. Our methodology takes implicitly into account assets’ correlations without restricting their values over time or computing them explicitly. VaR values for portfolios of derivative securities are obtained without linearising them. Historical simulation assigns equal probability to past returns, neglecting current market conditions. Our methodology is a refinement of historical simulation.

Arbitrage Equilibrium with Skewed Asset Returns

The quadratic form of the covariance-co-skewness model by Kraus and Litzenberger and arbitrage pricing theory are used for an empirical investigation of market equilibrium with skewed seecurity returns. Empirical tests similar to the ones in Black-Jensen-Scholes and Gibbons are discussed. The empirical estimates give some support to the Kraus-Litzenberger hypothesis on skewness preference. However, there is some evidence that the tested arbitrage equilibrium is not a complete description of security pricing.

Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)

Filtered historical simulation provides the general framework to our backtests of portfolios of derivative securities held by a large sample of financial institutions. We allow for stochastic volatility and exchange rates. Correlations are preserved implicitly by our simulation procedure. Options are repriced at each node. Overall results support the adequacy of our framework, but our VaR numbers are too high for swap portfolios at long horizons and too low for options and futures portfolios at short horizons.

Seasonality in Canadian Stock Prices: A Test of the “Tax-Loss-Selling” Hypothesis

A popular hypothesis to explain the anomalous January returns of common stocks is based on the argument that there is considerable tax-loss selling by investors toward the end of the year. The purpose of this study is to test the tax-loss-selling hypothesis with data on Canadian stocks. Although the introduction of capital gains tax in Canada seems to have affected the behavior of stock returns, the findings do not support the proposition that taxinduced trading is the sole cause of the seasonality in stock returns in Canada.

The valuation of American call options and the expected ex-dividend stock price decline

Abstract This study focuses on the ex-dividend stock price decline implicit within the valuation of American call options on dividend-paying stocks. The Roll (1977) American call option pricing formula and the observed structure of CBOE call option transaction prices are used to infer the expected ex-dividend stock price decline as a proportion of the amount of the dividend. The relative decline is shown to be not meaningfully different from one, confirming some recent evidence from studies which examined stock prices in the days surrounding ex-dividend.

Approximations for the values of american options

The solution of the American option valuation problem is the solution of a parabolic partial differential equation satisfying free boundary conditions. The free boundary represents the critical price, at which the option should be exercised. In this paper the free boundary is determined by an algebraic relation and an approximate solution derived. A suitable modification of the approximate solution gives the exact solution. The uniqueness of the free boundary implies the expression determined by the algebraic relation is the true critical price

An option pricing formula for the GARCH diffusion model

The first four conditional moments of the integrated variance implied by the GARCH diffusionprocess are derived analytically. Based on these moments and on a power series method an analytical approximation formula to price European options under the GARCH diffusion model is obtained. Monte Carlo simulations show that this approximation formula up to order three is accurate for a large set of reasonable parameters and highlight potential instabilities of the fourth term. Finally, the closed-form approximation formula is used to shed light on the qualitative properties of implied volatility surfaces induced by GARCH diffusion models.

Equity financing and corporate convertible bond policy

Abstract A co-operative game playing model is used to examine ex ante the decision parameters which are involved in the selection of callable convertible bonds as a means of delayed equity financing. The differential tax treatment of coupon interest and dividend payments, coupled with market friction and incompleteness, provides sufficient reason for convertible debt issuance. Though there is a myopic incentive to expropriate wealth from convertible bondholders by inducing early conversion, value-maximizing managers choose to delay calling in order to maintain access to capital markets on favorable terms.

Numerical evaluation of the critical price and American options

An approximate solution to the American put value is proposed and implemented numerically. Relaxation techniques enable the critical price to be determined with high accuracy. The method uses a modification of the quadratic approximation of MacMillan and Barone-Adesi and Whaley which gives an expression for the critical price. Numerical experimentation and iterative methods quickly provide highly accurate solutions.

Market Models and Heteroscedasticity of Residual Security Returns

Bickels tests provide attractive robust alternatives to traditional tests of heteroscedasticity. NYSE securities have homoscedastic residuals once nonnormality of security returns is allowed. Some portfolio designs may generate some heteroscedastic residuals, but this heteroscedasticity is reduced by the Kraus-Litzenberger quadratic market model. This result suggests a misspecification in the traditional market model.