Giovanni Di Matteo

Predictive Factors of Mortality From Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage: A Multicenter Study

OBJECTIVES:From an Italian Registry of patients with upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage (UGIH), we assessed the clinical outcomes and explored the roles of clinical, endoscopic, and therapeutic factors on 30-day mortality in a real life setting.METHODS:Prospective analysis of consecutive patients endoscoped for UGIH at 23 community and tertiary care institutions from 2003 to 2004. Covariates and outcomes were defined a priori and 30-day follow-up obtained. Logistic regression analysis identified predictors of mortality.RESULTS:One thousand and twenty patients were included. A total of 46 patients died for an overall 4.5% mortality rate. In all, 85% of deaths were associated with one or more major comorbidity. Sixteen of 46 patients (35%) died within the first 24 h of the onset of bleeding. Of these, eight had been categorized as ASA class 1 or 2 and none of them was operated upon, despite a failure of endoscopic intention to treatment in four. Regression analysis showed advanced age, presence of severe comorbidity, low hemoglobin levels at presentation, and worsening health status as the only independent predictors of 30-day mortality (P < 0.001). The acute use of a PPI exerted a protective effect (OR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09–0.73). Recurrent bleeding was low (3.2%). Rebleeders accounted for only 11% of the total patients deceased (OR 3.27, 95% CI 1.5–11.2).CONCLUSIONS:These results indicate that 30-day mortality for nonvariceal bleeding is low. Deaths occurred predominantly in elderly patients with severe comorbidities or those with failure of endoscopic intention to treatment.

Mortality from nonulcer bleeding is similar to that of ulcer bleeding in high-risk patients with nonvariceal hemorrhage: A prospective database study in Italy

BACKGROUND Nonulcer causes of bleeding are often regarded as minor, ie, associated with a lower risk of mortality. OBJECTIVE To assess the risk of death from nonulcer causes of upper GI bleeding (UGIB). DESIGN Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data from 3 national databases. SETTINGS Community and teaching hospitals. PATIENTS Consecutive patients admitted for acute nonvariceal UGIB. INTERVENTIONS Early endoscopy, medical and endoscopic treatment as appropriate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS Thirty-day mortality, recurrent bleeding, and need for surgery. RESULTS A total of 3207 patients (65.8% male), mean (standard deviation) age 68.3 (16.4) years, were analyzed. Overall mortality was 4.45% (143 patients). According to the source of bleeding, mortality was 9.8% for neoplasia, 4.8% for Mallory-Weiss tears, 4.8% for vascular lesions, 4.4% for gastroduodenal erosions, 4.4% for duodenal ulcer, and 3.1% for gastric ulcer. Frequency of death was not different among benign endoscopic diagnoses (overall P = .567). Risk of death was significantly higher in patients with neoplasia compared with benign conditions (odds ratio 2.50; 95% CI, 1.32-4.46; P < .0001). Gastric or duodenal ulcer significantly increased the risk of death, but this was not related to the presence of high-risk stigmata (P = .368). The strongest predictor of mortality for all causes of nonvariceal UGIB was the overall physical status of the patient measured with the American Society of Anesthesiologists score (1-2 vs 3-4, P < .001). LIMITATIONS No data on the American Society of Anesthesiologists class score in the Prometeo study. CONCLUSIONS Nonulcer causes of nonvariceal UGIB have a risk of death, similar to bleeding peptic ulcers in the clinical context of a high-risk patient.

Appropriateness guidelines and predictive rules to select patients for upper endoscopy: A nationwide multicenter study

OBJECTIVES:Selecting patients appropriately for upper endoscopy (EGD) is crucial for efficient use of endoscopy. The objective of this study was to compare different clinical strategies and statistical methods to select patients for EGD, namely appropriateness guidelines, age and/or alarm features, and multivariate and artificial neural network (ANN) models.METHODS:A nationwide, multicenter, prospective study was undertaken in which consecutive patients referred for EGD during a 1-month period were enrolled. Before EGD, the endoscopist assessed referral appropriateness according to the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines, also collecting clinical and demographic variables. Outcomes of the study were detection of relevant findings and new diagnosis of malignancy at EGD. The accuracy of the following clinical strategies and predictive rules was compared: (i) ASGE appropriateness guidelines (indicated vs. not indicated), (ii) simplified rule (≥45 years or alarm features vs. <45 years without alarm features), (iii) logistic regression model, and (iv) ANN models.RESULTS:A total of 8,252 patients were enrolled in 57 centers. Overall, 3,803 (46%) relevant findings and 132 (1.6%) new malignancies were detected. Sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the simplified rule were similar to that of the ASGE guidelines for both relevant findings (82%/26%/0.55 vs. 88%/27%/0.52) and cancer (97%/22%/0.58 vs. 98%/20%/0.58). Both logistic regression and ANN models seemed to be substantially more accurate in predicting new cases of malignancy, with an AUC of 0.82 and 0.87, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:A simple predictive rule based on age and alarm features is similarly effective to the more complex ASGE guidelines in selecting patients for EGD. Regression and ANN models may be useful in identifying a relatively small subgroup of patients at higher risk of cancer.

The "Prometeo" study: online collection of clinical data and outcome of Italian patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Goals: To implement an online, prospective collection of clinical data and outcome of patients with acute nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in Italy (“Prometeo” study). Background: Epidemiology, clinical features, and outcomes of nonvariceal UGIB are mainly known by retrospective studies and are probably changing. Study: Data were collected by 13 Gastrointestinal Units in Italy from June 2006 to June 2007 (phase 1) and from December 2008 to December 2009 (phase 2): an interim analysis of data was performed between the 2 phases to optimize the online database. All the patients consecutively admitted for acute nonvariceal UGIB were enrolled. Demographic and clinical data were collected, a diagnostic endoscopy performed, with endoscopic hemostasis if indicated. Results: One thousand four hundred thirteen patients (M=932, mean age±SD=66.5±15.8; F=481, mean age±SD=74.2±14.6) were enrolled. Comorbidities were present in 83%. 52.4% were treated with acetyl salicylic acid or other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs): only 13.9% had an effective gastroprotection. Previous episodes of UGIB were present in 13.3%. Transfusion were needed in 43.9%. Shock was present in 9.3%. Endoscopic diagnosis was made in 93.2%: peptic lesions were the main cause of bleeding (duodenal ulcer 36.2%, gastric ulcer 29.6%, gastric/duodenal erosions 10.9%). At endoscopy, Helicobacter pylori was searched in 37.2%, and found positive in 51.3% of tested cases. Early rebleeding was observed in 5.4%: surgery was required in 14.3% of them. Bleeding-related death occurred in 4.0%: at multivariate analysis, the risk of death was correlated with female sex [odds ratio (OR=2.19, P=0.0089)], presence of neoplasia (OR=2.70, P=0.0057) or multiple comorbidities (OR=5.04, P=0.0280), shock at admission (OR=4.55, P=0.0001), and early rebleeding (OR=1.47, P=0.004). Conclusions: Prometeo database has provided an up-to-date picture of acute nonvariceal UGIB in Italy: patients are elderly, predominantly males, and with important comorbidities. Gastroprotection is underutilized during NSAIDs treatment. With respect to previous studies, Prometeo shows a higher incidence of low-dose acetyl salicylic acid use and comorbidities, whereas no significant difference were found in other items (etiology of bleeding, NSAIDs use, need for endoscopic hemostasis, incidence of rebleeding, and overall mortality).