Giovanni Fusco

A New Data-Driven Approach to Forecast Freight Transport Demand

Transport modeling, in general, and freight transport modeling, in particular, are becoming important tools for investigating the effects of investments and policies. Freight demand forecasting models are still in an experimentation and evolution stage. Nevertheless, some recent European projects, like Transtools or ETIS/ETIS Plus, have developed a unique modeling and data framework for freight forecast at large scale so to avoid data availability and modeling problems.

Beyond the built-up form/mobility relationship: Spatial affordance and lifestyles

Abstract The aim of the paper is to explore the interplay of spatial affordance and lifestyles within a metropolitan context. The reorganisation of urban regions in integrated metropolitan areas generates new lifestyles based on hyper-mobility (often in the form of car dependency) and poly-topic practice of space. At the same time, the physical and functional characteristics of urban and rural components of space are modified. Within a quantitative approach, spatial indicators are used to describe the different facets of spatial affordance and of lifestyles of the resident population. The case study is the French Riviera metropolitan area, in south-eastern France. The indicators are used within a Bayesian Network model to identify typologies of place in the metropolitan area. Two typologies are produced. The first one identifies seven classes of spatial affordance ranging from regularly planned, dense and mixed urban cores to less accessible peripheral rural villages under metropolitan influence. The second one looks for profiles of place based on the prevalent lifestyles of its population (dwelling regimes). Once again seven classes are determined, including urban, suburban and metropolitan-rural lifestyles. The correspondence between spatial affordance and lifestyles is later explored to compose a more thorough description of places. The research confirms the need to enlarge the view of the built-up form/mobility relationship, shows the usefulness of the concepts of spatial affordance and dwelling regimes and explores new methodologies for identifying profiles of place. The probabilistic framework of Bayesian Networks proves particularly well suited to capture the fuzzy relationship between spatial affordance and lifestyle.

Questions of uncertainty in geography

The concept of uncertainty has fostered in the last decade’s fundamental and applied research in different disciplinary fields. Couclelis (2003) clearly demonstrated the pervasiveness of uncertainty in the production process of geographical knowledge. The paper shares this epistemological point of view. Pragmatically, its goal is to show how questions of uncertainty arise in the praxis of geographic research. It suggests that scientific work can be enriched, and not hindered, by addressing uncertainty in knowledge. The paper discusses eight domains within the activity of the geographer, where questions of uncertainty arise: geographic information, geographic definitions, the explanation of geographic phenomena, the complexity of spatial systems, geosimulation, the representation of spatial knowledge, subjectivity in spatial phenomena, and planning. Within each domain uncertainty issues are identified as well as their possible interrelations.

Uncertainty in Interaction Modelling: Prospecting the Evolution of Urban Networks in South-Eastern France *

The applications presented in this chapter represent a complete modelling chain, integrating interaction modelling and uncertainty issues. New protocols to extract urban networks from spatial interaction data within a regional space are proposed. Bayesian Networks are later used to produce a model of the evolution of these networks. The results of prospective simulations of the future evolution of regional urban networks are subsequently integrated in a GIS platform to obtain an appropriate cartographic representation. GIS modelling and mapping integrate the probabilistic content of the model results, representing the degree of uncertainty in the knowledge of the future state of every component of the regional system.

Prospecting the Evolution of a Winegrowing Region through MAS Modelling

The Bandol winegrowing region (South-Eastern France) is presently confronted with growing urban pressure. This paper prospects the evolution of winegrowing in the region through scenario simulation in a Multi-Agent System model. The model is confronted with the difficulties of combining real data with expert knowledge. Entry data are the cadastral map, land-use and land-use plans, economic data on winegrowers and several external parameters. Spatial strategic foresight is exploratory and does not determine a certain future for the study area. The starting point is the simulation of a trend scenario. Alternative scenarios are later elaborated by modifying coherently the parameter set of the geosimulations. Their goal is to understand the possible consequences of departures from trend dynamics on the study area and its winegrowing economy. The paper shows the interest of using a MAS model, developed from real-world data, in order to simulate scenarios for spatial strategic foresight. Under the constraint of a set of hypotheses, the MAS model produces spatial forms for possible futures of the Bandol region and shows the overall resilience of its winegrowing economy.