Giovanni Majnoni

How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators

Abstract We explore for individual banks, active in the East Asian countries during the years 1996–1998, the performance of three sets of indicators of bank fragility that can be computed from publicly available information: accounting data, stock market prices, and credit ratings. We find significantly different patterns among the three groups of indicators in their ability of forecasting financial distress at a specific point in time and over time. More specifically, in the East Asia crisis episode the information based on stock prices or on judgmental assessments of credit rating agencies did not outpace backward looking information contained in balance sheet data. Stock market based information, though, has responded more quickly to changing financial conditions than ratings of credit risk agencies. Overall, the evidence supports the policy conclusion that, where the information processing is quite costly, as in most developing countries, it is important to use simultaneously a plurality of indicators to assess bank fragility.

Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences

The paper has three objectives. After a general introduction to some of the concepts and basic techniques of stress testing, the paper gives an overview of some of the conceptual issues involved in evaluating risks at the aggregated level of financial systems. Second, this study provides a basic framework and toolkit for conducting stress tests. Finally, the paper reviews some of the stress-testing analyses conducted in the context of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and suggests simplified approaches to deal with situations where the quantity and quality of the data is less than ideal.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Bank Capital Requirements in Emerging Economies : Past Evidence to Assess the Future

The authors test for emerging economies, the hypothesis - previously verified only for the Group of 10 (G-10) countries - that enforcing bank capital asset requirements, exerts a negative effect on the supply of credit. Their econometric analysis of data on individual banks, suggests three main results: 1) Enforcement of capital asset requirements - according to the 1998 Basel standard - significantly curtailed credit supply, particularly at less-well-capitalized banks. 2) This negative effect is not limited to countries enforcing capital asset requirements in the aftermath of a currency, or financial crises. 3) The adverse impact of capital requirements on the credit supply was somewhat smaller for foreign-owned banks, suggesting that opening up to foreign investors, may be an effective way to partly shield the domestic banking sector from negative shocks. Overall, by inducing banks to reduce their lending, enforcement of capital asset requirements may well have induced an aggregate slowdown, or contraction in credit in the emerging economies examined. The results have relevance for the ongoing debate on the impact of the revision of bank capital asset requirements, contemplated by the 1999 Basel proposal. They suggest that in several emerging economies, the phasing in of higher capital requirements needs to be carefully managed, to avoid a credit supply retrenchment, which should not be underestimated.

THE ROLE OF RATING AGENCY ASSESSMENTS IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: IMPACT OF THE PROPOSED BASEL GUIDELINES

Abstract We assess the potential impact for non-high-income countries (NHICs) of linking bank capital asset requirements (CARs) to private sector ratings–as contemplated by the new Basel proposal. Specifically, we show that linking bank CARs to external ratings would have a series of undesirable effects for NHICs. First, since ratings are by far less widespread for banks and corporations in NHICs, bank CARs would be practically insensitive to improvements in the quality of assets, widening the gap between banks of equal financial strength located in higher and lower income countries. Second, bank and corporate ratings in NHICs (as opposed to their homologues in high-income countries) are strongly linked to their sovereign ratings. This would expose bank capital requirements in NHICs to the same “pro-cyclical” swings, which have characterized sovereign rating revision in the recent crisis episodes. We conclude that linking bank CARs to private sector ratings would worsen the availability and cost of credit to NHICs – with potential negative effects on the level of economic activity – and suggest that a reassessment of the Basel proposal may help to avoid such undesired consequences.

The Dynamics of Foreign Bank Ownership: Evidence from Hungary

The early start of the process of bank restructuring and privatization in Hungary provides a longer and richer amount of evidence than that available for any other transition economy. The authors analyze the dynamics of bank restructuring in Hungary with a focus on the role played by foreign ownership. They explore the performance over time of foreign-owned Hungarian banks and study the extent to which efficiency gains are affected by the chosen acquisition strategy-strategic acquisition in contrast with investment in a newly established bank (greenfield investment)-or by the management style adopted after the acquisition. The authors supplement previous results on the effects of foreign bank ownership in three ways. First, they explicitly consider the time span required for the change of ownership to affect bank performance. Second, the authors explore how important the chosen acquisition strategy is for the success of an acquisition. And third, they study how relevant the adopted management style is to this end, as proxied by the degree of reliance on foreign management.

Improving Credit Information, Bank Regulation, and Supervision: On the Role and Design of Public Credit Registries

The authors analyze how data in public credit registries can be used both to strengthen bank supervision and to improve the quality of credit analysis by financial institutions. Empirical tests using public credit registry (PCR) data were performed in collaboration with the central banks in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. The results of the empirical tests confirm the value of the data for credit risk evaluation and provide insights regarding its use in supervision, including in calculations of credit risk for capital and provisioning requirements, or as a check on a banks internal ratings for the Basel IIs internal rating-based approach. The authors also define a set of critical design parameters and use the results to comment on appropriate public registry design. Finally, they discuss the relationship between the different objectives of a PCR and how they influence the registrys design.

Financial Regulatory Harmonization and the Globalization of Finance

In the globalizing economy, national policymakers are often forced to accept the challenge of financial integration. Faced with the potentially destabilizing effects of international financial markets, they have to strengthen financial regulation, importing international best practices and aligning domestic with foreign regulation, to avoid destabilizing phenomena of regulatory arbitrage. The authors explore the main features of the ongoing process of worldwide financial regulatory convergence and the role played by the global dissemination of financial standards and codes. They analyze the reasons behind the generalized acceptance of international best practices and the limits of the standards and codes approach to financial regulatory harmonization.

Reforming Bank Capital Requirements: Implications of Basel II for Latin American Countries

The controversial proposal to overhaul the international accord regarding the regulation of bank capital was completed in 2004, and the thirteen Basel Committee member countries are set to implement the new accord, known as Basel II, by 2007. We develop a Basel II decision tree to guide policymakers facing the issue of whether to adopt the new accord. We also estimate credit risk in banks across three Latin American countries using a homogeneous methodology. Our findings suggest that Latin America falls between the two main Basel II alternatives. Non-G10 countries may thus wish to recalibrate Basel IIs internal ratings-based (IRB) approach. Alternatively, we propose an intermediate centralized ratings-based (CRB) approach. We argue that the CRB approach may be made compatible with Basel II by developing an integrated policy for provisions and capital. We perceive a danger that Basel II may be adopted too quickly or inappropriately and may then represent the end of a standard rather than the establishment of a new one. We suggest that a Basel II-compatible CRB approach with homogeneous definitions would enhance true comparability.

Access and Risk - Friends or Foes? Lessons from Chile

This paper documents the link between risk, stability, and access to credit markets in an emerging economy. It presents annual credit loss distributions of Chilean banks for the period 1999-2005, providing the first empirical evidence of the cyclical pattern of expected losses and unexpected losses of bank loan portfolios in emerging countries. The paper provides three main contributions to the debate on bank solvency and access to credit markets. First, it derives nonparametric estimators of expected losses and unexpected losses, free from model error and, in particular, from distributional restrictions. Second, it shows how the distribution of credit losses for portfolios of retail and commercial loans is affected by the lumpiness of bank loans. Finally, it shows that the shape of credit loss distributions helps select appropriate policies to promote broader and sounder access to bank credit for the poor and the unbanked.

Fundamentals, beliefs, and financial contagion

Abstract We study contagion in a model in which financial crises can occur due to both weak fundamentals and adverse self-fulfilling expectations. Contagion emerges only if a crisis in one country leads international investors to rationally update beliefs about fundamentals in other countries. But purely expectational crises may be contagious, as investors may infer that fundamentals are weak. Hence, the structure of information is crucial. The analysis delivers useful lessons for assessing which countries are more vulnerable to contagion, which types of crises are more infectious, and whether increased transparency ameliorates contagion effects.