Giovanni Tripepi

Plasma concentration of asymmetrical dimethylarginine and mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease: a prospective study

BACKGROUND The plasma concentration of asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an inhibitor of nitric-oxide synthase, which has been linked to endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerosis in the general population, is raised in patients with end-stage renal disease and could contribute to the high cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic renal failure. We investigated the relation between cardiovascular risk factors and plasma ADMA concentration in a cohort of haemodialysis patients (n=225), and tested the predictive power of ADMA for mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS Patients had standard dialysis three times a week. We accurately recorded cardiovascular events over a mean follow-up of 33.4 months (SD 14.6); these events were reviewed by a panel of physicians. We identified correlates of plasma ADMA by univariate and multivariate analyses. FINDINGS On univariate analysis, ADMA concentration in plasma was directly related to concentrations of fibrinogen and L-arginine in plasma, duration of dialysis treatment, and serum cholesterol concentration, and was inversely related to serum albumin concentration. On multivariate analysis, only plasma fibrinogen (p=0.0001) and serum albumin (p=0.04) concentrations were independently related to plasma ADMA concentration (multiple r=0.44, p=0.0001). 83 patients died, 53 (64%) by cardiovascular causes. In a Coxs proportional-hazards model, plasma ADMA ranked as the second factor predicting overall mortality (hazard ratio 1.26, 95% Cl 1.11-1.41, p=0.0001) and cardiovascular events (1.17, 1.04-1.33, p=0.008). INTERPRETATION In haemodialysis patients, plasma ADMA is a strong and independent predictor of overall mortality and cardiovascular outcome. These findings lend support to the hypothesis that accumulation of ADMA is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease in chronic renal failure.

Asymmetrical Dimethylarginine Predicts Progression to Dialysis and Death in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease: A Competing Risks Modeling Approach

High plasma asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA) signals endothelial dysfunction and atherosclerosis in the general population and predicts mortality in ESRD. The relationship among plasma levels of ADMA, renal function, and the risk for progression to ESRD (halving GFR or dialysis start) and death in an incident cohort of 131 patients with chronic kidney disease was investigated. Coxs competing risk regression was used to model double-failure times (progression to ESRD and death) as a function of ADMA. Covariates that were considered for adjustment included clinical characteristics, baseline GFR (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation 7 formula), proteinuria, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, serum C-reactive protein, homocysteine, and concomitant therapies. Mean age at enrollment was 71 +/- 11 yr, and 24% of patients had diabetes. Baseline GFR ranged from 8 to 77 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (average 31 +/- 15 ml/min per 1.73 m2). ADMA was inversely related to GFR, ranking as the third predicting factor (partial r = -0.22, P = 0.01), after hemoglobin and urinary protein, in a general linear model that included multiple correlates of GFR. After a mean follow-up of 27 mo (range 3.4 to 36), 29 patients progressed to ESRD and 31 died. ADMA (hazard ratio per 0.1 muM/L 1.203; 95% confidence interval 1.071 to 1.350) predicted event occurrence independent of other potential confounders, including GFR, proteinuria, hemoglobin, and homocysteine. In patients with mild to advanced chronic kidney disease, plasma ADMA is inversely related to GFR and represents a strong and independent risk marker for progression to ESRD and mortality. These novel findings further expand the implications of previous observations in ESRD patients and generate hypotheses on the role of ADMA in progressive chronic nephropathies.

Vitamin D levels and patient outcome in chronic kidney disease

Vitamin D deficiency has been linked to cardiovascular disease and early mortality in patients on hemodialysis; however, it is not known if the same association exists at earlier stages of chronic kidney disease. To determine this we enrolled 168 consecutive new referrals to a chronic kidney disease clinic over a 2 year period and followed them for up to 6 years. All patients were clinically stable and had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at stage 2 or less and were without an imminent need for dialysis. Baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels directly and significantly correlated with eGFR. After an average follow-up of 48 months, 48 patients started dialysis and 78 had died. In crude analyses, 25-hydroxyvitamin D predicted both time to death and end-stage renal disease. A dual-event Coxs model confirmed 25-hydroxyvitamin D as an independent predictor of study outcomes when adjusted for age, heart failure, smoking, C-reactive protein, albumin, phosphate, use of converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers, and eGFR. Our study shows that plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D is an independent inverse predictor of disease progression and death in patients with stage 2-5 chronic kidney disease.

Inflammation is associated with carotid atherosclerosis in dialysis patients

Objective To investigate the relationship between inflammatory processes and atherosclerosis in uraemic patients on chronic dialysis. Design A cross-sectional study in 138 dialysis patients (92 on haemodialysis and 46 on continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis). Methods Serum C-reactive protein (CRP), IgG anti-Chlamydia pneumoniae antibodies, lipoprotein (a), fibrinogen and plasma homocysteine as well as the intima–media thickness and the number of atherosclerotic plaques of the carotid arteries (by Echo-Colour-Doppler) were measured in each patient. Results One hundred and eight patients had at least one plaque and 26 had more than six plaques. Serum CRP was above the upper limit of the normal range (5 mg/l) in 85 of 138 patients (62%). IgG anti-Chlamydia pneumoniae antibodies were detectable in 64% of patients (high level in 24%, intermediate in 33% and low in 7%) and undetectable in the remaining 36% of patients. In a multiple regression model age (β = 0.35), serum CRP (β = 0.23), plasma homocysteine (β = 0.19), duration of dialysis (β = 0.19) and pulse pressure (β = 0.18) were independent predictors of intima–media thickness (R = 0.54, P < 0.0001). Similarly, age (β = 0.33), serum CRP (β = 0.29), plasma homocysteine (β = 0.20) and serum albumin (β = −0.18) were independent correlates of the number of atherosclerotic plaques (R = 0.55, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, in smokers, the interaction serum CRP–IgG anti–Chlamydia pneumoniae antibodies was the stronger independent predictor (β = 0.43, P = 0.0001) of the number of atherosclerotic plaques while no such relationship (P = 0.73) was found in non-smokers. Conclusions In patients on chronic dialysis treatment CRP is independently associated to carotid atherosclerosis and appears at least in part to be explained by IgG anti-Chlamydia pneumoniae antibodies level. These data lend support to the hypothesis that inflammation plays a role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis in these patients.

Inflammation Markers, Adhesion Molecules, and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with ESRD: Searching for the Best Risk Marker by Multivariate Modeling

Inflammation is a major risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular (CV) complications in patients with ESRD. The predictive value of C-reactive protein (CRP) of the main proinflammatory cytokines (IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-18, and TNF-alpha) and of two adhesion molecules (intercellular adhesion molecule-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1) in 217 dialysis patients was compared. Serum IL-6 and CRP added significant prediction power to the multivariate Cox model of all-cause death, and the gain in the prediction power attributable to IL-6 was approximately two times higher than that of CRP. Patients in the third tertiles of serum IL-6 and CRP had a relative risk of all-cause mortality 2.5 and 1.8 times higher than those in the first corresponding tertiles, and there was no statistical difference between these two relative risks. The gain in prediction power associated with TNF-alpha, IL-beta, IL-18, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 was of small degree (P = NS). Similarly, serum IL-6 added the highest prediction power to the CV death model, and the IL-6 attributable gain was approximately two times higher than that of serum CRP. However, the risk estimate for CV mortality of patients with high serum IL-6 did not differ significantly from that of patients with high serum CRP. IL-6 adds significantly greater predictive power for all-cause and CV death to statistical models based on traditional and nontraditional risk factors in ESRD patients. However, the risk estimate by CRP being reasonably close to that of IL-6, CRP may be a cheap alternative to IL-6 in clinical practice.

Abdominal Obesity and All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in End-Stage Renal Disease

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive value for all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) death of anthropometric measurements of abdominal obesity in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). BACKGROUND Surrogate measures of abdominal obesity and segmental fat distribution (waist circumference and waist/hip ratio [WHR]) are stronger predictors of all-cause and CV death than body mass index (BMI) in the general population, but the issue has never been investigated in patients with ESRD. METHODS We performed a prospective cohort study in 537 patients with ESRD (age 63 +/- 15 years). RESULTS In BMI-adjusted Cox models, waist circumference was a direct predictor of all-cause and CV mortality (p < 0.001), whereas BMI showed an inverse relationship (p < 0.001) with these outcomes. The incidence rates of overall and CV death were maximal in patients with relatively lower BMI scores (below the median) and higher waist circumferences (at least the median) and minimal in patients with higher BMI scores (at least the median) and small waist circumferences (below the median). The prognostic power of waist circumference for all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] [10-cm increase]: 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02 to 1.47; p = 0.03) and CV mortality (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.73; p = 0.006) remained significant after adjustment for CV comorbidities and traditional and emerging risk factors. WHR was found to be related to all-cause (p = 0.009) and CV mortality (p = 0.07). CONCLUSIONS Abdominal obesity underlies a high risk of all-cause and CV mortality in patients with ESRD. Redefinition of nutritional status by combining the metrics of abdominal obesity and BMI may refine prognosis in the ESRD population.

Risk prediction models

Prognostic research focuses on the prediction of the future course of a given disease in probability terms. Prognostication is performed by clinical decision makers by using risk prediction models that allow us to estimate the probability that a specific event occurs in a given patient over a predefined time period conditional on prognostic factors (predictors). Before application in clinical practice, risk prediction models should be properly validated by assessing their discrimination and calibration, or explained variation. Reclassification analyses allow us to evaluate the gain in risk prediction by using a new model compared with an established one. We discuss the concepts of developing and validating risk prediction models by means of two examples, the Framingham risk calculator for prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD), and the recently published Renal Risk Score to predict progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Phosphate May Promote CKD Progression and Attenuate Renoprotective Effect of ACE Inhibition

Phosphate may promote the onset and progression of chronic nephropathies. Here we evaluated the relationships between baseline serum phosphate levels, disease progression, and response to ACE inhibition in 331 patients with proteinuric nephropathies in the prospective Ramipril Efficacy In Nephropathy (REIN) trial. Independent of treatment, patients with phosphate levels in the highest two quartiles progressed significantly faster either to ESRD or to a composite endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine or ESRD compared with patients with phosphate levels below the median (P < 0.001). Results were similar when we analyzed phosphate as a continuous variable (P ≤ 0.004). The renoprotective effect of ramipril decreased as serum phosphate increased (P ≤ 0.008 for interaction); this modification of the treatment effect by phosphate persisted despite adjusting for potential confounders such as GFR and urinary protein. In summary, these data suggest that phosphate is an independent risk factor for progression of renal disease among patients with proteinuric CKD, and high levels of phosphate may even attenuate the renoprotective effect of ACE inhibitors. Future trials should test whether reducing serum phosphate improves renal outcomes and optimizes the renoprotective effect of ACE inhibition.

Prognostic Value of Echocardiographic Indicators of Left Ventricular Systolic Function in Asymptomatic Dialysis Patients

Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are at high risk for heart failure, but the prevalence and the prognostic value of asymptomatic systolic dysfunction in these patients are unknown. In this prospective cohort study, the authors have therefore assessed by echocardiography the prevalence and the prognostic value of systolic function as estimated by ejection fraction (EF), fractional shortening at endocardial level (endoFS), and at midwall (mwFS), in a cohort of 254 asymptomatic dialysis patients. Systolic dysfunction had a prevalence rate of 26% by endoFS and of 48% by mwFS. During the follow-up period, 125 patients had one or more fatal and nonfatal CV events. On multivariate COX regression analysis, the three LV systolic function indicators were independently associated with incident fatal and nonfatal CV events, and there were no differences in the predictive power of these indicators (P > 0.30). The prediction power of LV function indicators was largely independent of traditional and novel risk factors in ESRD such as C-reactive protein and asymmetric dimethyl arginine (ADMA). ADMA was significantly related with LV function indicators as well as with mortality and incident CV events, but these links were much reduced (P = NS) in models including LV function indicators. Of note, the risk of CV events was minimal in patients with normal LV mass and function, intermediate in patients with either LVH or systolic dysfunction, and maximal in patients displaying both alterations. The study of myocardial contractility by echocardiography provides prognostic information independently of LV mass and other risk factors in ESRD. Risk stratification by simple systolic function parameters may prove useful in secondary prevention strategies in these patients.

Novel Cardiovascular Risk Factors in End-Stage Renal Disease

Traditional risk factors only in part explain the risk differential between the general population and the population of patients with chronic nephropathies. Uncontrolled hyperphosphatemia and high calcium phosphate product constitute risk factors for cardiovascular calcifications, cardiac ischemia, and adverse cardiovascular outcomes, yet inflammation may be an even more important trigger of vascular calcification than these metabolic derangements. Homocysteine predicts cardiovascular events in ESRD, but evidence that this sulfur amino acid is directly implicated in the high cardiovascular mortality of uremic patients is still lacking. It seems unlikely that Chlamydia pneumoniae is a major risk factor in dialysis patients because the association between anti-Chlamydia antibodies and incident cardiovascular events seems to depend largely on the confounding effect of some traditional risk factors. Oxidative stress and raised plasma concentration of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) are pervasive in ESRD, and high ADMA in these patients may be at least in part the expression of the high rate of generation of oxidants. ADMA per se seems responsible for a 52% increase in the risk of death and for a 34% increase in the risk of cardiovascular events in dialysis patients.