Giovanni Vecchi

Height and the Normal Distribution: Evidence from Italian Military Data

Researchers modeling historical heights have typically relied on the restrictive assumption of a normal distribution, only the mean of which is affected by age, income, nutrition, disease, and similar influences. To avoid these restrictive assumptions, we develop a new semiparametric approach in which covariates are allowed to affect the entire distribution without imposing any parametric shape. We apply our method to a new database of height distributions for Italian provinces, drawn from conscription records, of unprecedented length and geographical disaggregation. Our method allows us to standardize distributions to a single age and calculate moments of the distribution that are comparable through time. Our method also allows us to generate counterfactual distributions for a range of ages, from which we derive age-height profiles. These profiles reveal how the adolescent growth spurt (AGS) distorts the distribution of stature, and they document the earlier and earlier onset of the AGS as living conditions improved over the second half of the nineteenth century. Our new estimates of provincial mean height also reveal a previously unnoticed “regime switch” from regional convergence to divergence in this period.

IS THE KUZNETS CURVE STILL ALIVE? EVIDENCE FROM ITALIAN HOUSEHOLD BUDGETS, 1881 1961

This paper investigates secular changes in the distribution of personal expen-diture in Italy over the period 1881-1961. To do so, the authors constructed a new dataset, the Italian Household Budgets Database (IHBD), consisting of 4,370 family-level budgets. Methodologically, this paper improves upon most existing studies in that: (i) the entire distribution of the expenditure curve is in-vestigated, rather than just sections or likely determinants of it; (ii) confidence intervals are attached to the point estimates (Gini coefficients); and (iii) signifi-cance tests ascertain that the estimated path of inequality is not due to sam-pling variation. The secular trend in consumption expenditure inequality is found to be downward sloped. Inequality declines sharply at the beginning of the century, increases during the great depression, and falls again thereafter. These findings cast considerable doubt on the existence of an inverted-U shaped Kuznets curve, as far as the Italian case is concerned.

Monetary Union, institutions and financial market integration: Italy, 1862–1905

Abstract Years into the single currency, EMU financial markets are not fully integrated. We argue that the phenomenon can be better understood by looking at financial markets’ behavior in the wake of Italy’s monetary unification (1862). Variables such as the spread of the telegraph, trade volumes, and the diffusion of the ‘single currency’ fail to explain why it took 25 years for prices across regional stock exchanges to converge. A single Italian financial market appeared only when the State prevailed upon local vested interests by enforcing nation-wide financial market legislation.

Italy's Growth and Decline, 1861–2011

The large body of new statistical data that became available after the 150th anniversary of Italy’s unification permits a re-examination of Italy’s economic growth. Up-to-date estimates and re-interpretations of Italy’s gdp from 1861 to 2011—at both the national and regional levels—in the light of institutional and technological changes within an international context find that Italy’s economic growth was substantial early in the twentieth century but slackened considerably since the 1990s, despite successes in long-term performance. Analysis suggests that the country is on the road to irreversible decline. Part of the problem lies in the failure of the southern regions to converge economically with the more highly developed central and northern regions.

The Well-Being of Italians: A Comparative Historical Approach

The paper describes the evolution of the well-being of the Italians during the 150 years since the countrys unification. The progress in material standard of living was substantial, with GDP per capita growing 13 times between 1861 and 2010 and hours of work (and hence effort) falling considerably, but was roughly in line with that experienced by most other European countries. By relying on a novel database on household budgets, the paper shows that economic growth was accompanied by a long-run reduction of inequality that appears however to have been reversed in the last two decades. Progress was not limited to the economic domain: educational attainment improved considerably, although less than in other countries; on the other hand, the increase in life expectancy was spectacular and brought Italians to lead the international ranking.

On Historical Household Budgets

The paper argues that household budgets are the best starting point for investigating a number of big questions related to the evolution of the living standards during the last two-three centuries. If one knows where to look, historical family budgets are more abundant than might be suspected. And statistical techniques have been developed to handle the associated problems of small, incomplete, and unrepresentative samples. We introduce the Historical Household Budgets (HHB) Project, aimed at gathering data and sources, but also at creating an informational infrastructure that provides i) reliable storage and easy access to historical family budget data, along with ii) tools to configure the data as it is entered so as to harmonise it with present-day surveys.

Nutrizione e povertà in Italia, 1861-1911

Il saggio ricostruisce l’evoluzione della diffusione e dell’intensita della sottonutrizione nell’Italia liberale. Le stime, ottenute da un campione di bilanci alimentari familiari, mostrano che nel 1881 almeno un terzo delle famiglie italiane sono denutrite, non dispongono cioe di 2.000 kilocalorie/persona/giorno. Fra il 1881 e il 1901 la percentuale di famiglie denutrite diminuisce del 15-20 percento. Durante gli stessi anni, diminuisce il deficit calorico medio, e i guadagni calorici beneficiano in misura maggiore le famiglie piu denutrite fra quelle denutrite. Quanto alla composizione della dieta della popolazione, aumentano i consumi di proteine animali e di lipidi. I risultati ottenuti ridimensionano l’enfasi sinora posta sulla cronicita della poverta: nel corso del ventennio 1881-1901 la poverta estrema (per quanto puo essere approssimata dalla sottonutrizione), inizialmente piu diffusa nelle regioni del centro-nord, “ha puntato a sud” e ha progressivamente abbandonato le famiglie con occupazioni non agricole. Parole chiave: poverta, sottonutrizione, malnutrizione, Italia liberale.  * Ringraziamo Gianni Toniolo e Franco Peracchi per le discussioni avute sui temi e sui metodi affrontati in questo saggio. Gli autori rimangono i soli responsabili di eventuali errori. † Autore da contattarsi per commenti. E-mail: giovanni.vecchi@uniroma2.it.

House prices in Italy, 1927-2012

In this paper we examine the dynamics of house prices and residential land prices from 1927 to 2012. We find that real house prices increased more than threefold in that period, and more than fivefold in large cities. This was considerably more than real construction costs, which only doubled. Over two thirds of the increase in house prices between 1950 and 2012 was due to higher residential land prices. The increase in the wealth-to-GDP ratio observed in Italy since the middle of last century is largely due to the rise in real house prices. Although higher prices make purchasing a home more difficult for first-time buyers, our findings lessen concerns about the potential distributive tensions arising from the growth of the wealth-to-GDP ratio.

Durable Goods and Poverty Measurement

The paper focuses on durable goods and their role in the measurement of living standards. The paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of the methods available to estimate the value of the services flowing from consumer durable goods. It also provides a unified framework that encompasses the acquisition approach, the rental equivalent approach, and the user cost approach. The pros and cons of each method are discussed in the context of poverty and inequality analysis and it is argued that the user cost should receive the highest consideration.