Girijasankar Mallik

Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Cointegration Analysis of the Six Poorest African Countries

After more than thirty five years of development assistance, the people in the poorest African countries are still living in poverty. Their real per capita income since 1965 has either declined or remained stagnant. The obvious question is: why could these countries not break the poverty trap despite receiving large inflows of foreign aid? This paper examines the effectiveness of foreign aid for economic growth in the six poorest and highly aid dependent African countries, namely the Central African Republic, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone and Togo. Using cointegration analysis, we have found that a long run relationship exists between per-capita real GDP, aid as a percentage of GDP, investment as a percentage of GDP and openness. However, the long run effect of aid on growth was found to be negative for most of these countries.

Inflation, government expenditure and real income in the long-run

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and real income in Australia, Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden and the UK which have adopted a “formal” policy of low or zero inflation target. Using cointegration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM)), we find that the long‐run relationship between inflation and real income is positive in most cases. We further find that contrary to the belief of new‐classical economics, government expenditure too is positively related to real income in the long‐run.

Factors influencing women's empowerment on microcredit borrowers: a case study in Bangladesh

Womens empowerment in relation to microcredit programmes is a prominent issue in the literature of microcredit. Not only the founder of the Grameen Bank is awarded the 2006 Nobel Peace Prize on the microcredit programme of Bangladesh but it has also been a topic of great interest to researchers since its introduction in mid-1970s. This study views womens empowerment from an emancipation perspective. The study uses quasi-experimental approach to compare womens empowerment between microcredit borrowers and non-borrowers. Using control-group method (non-borrowers from non-programme villages), this study identifies factors that influence womens empowerment. It also examines the impact on womens empowerment of borrowers having different levels of income. Results show that non-borrowers are equally empowered as microcredit borrowers. It has also been found that age and education levels of women are significant factors in such an empowerment.

Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia. Design/methodology/approach - Multivariate EGARCH models has been used to estimate the relationship between inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for Australia. Findings - Using quarterly data in multivariate EGARCH models, this study finds that both inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty have negative and significant effects on output growth. The paper also finds that, while inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on inflation, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation. The study uses a newly constructed oil price dummy as a control variable and finds that oil price changes significantly increase inflation uncertainty. The study also finds that inflation uncertainty and the inflation level have both declined since the adoption of a formal inflation-targeting monetary policy in Australia. Research limitations/implications - Multivariate EGARCH model can be used to estimate the effects of inflation, inflation uncertainty, growth and growth uncertainty for cross-country analysis. Originality/value - This is the first study of the effect of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and growth in Australia using a newly constructed oil price dummy in a multivariate EGARCH framework.

Has the link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates changed after inflation targeting

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation-targeting countries. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the form of a time-varying parameter model with a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) specification, used to derive impulse uncertainty and structural uncertainty. Findings - This study attempts to establish a link between inflation uncertainty and interest rates for five inflation-targeting countries, i.e. Canada, Finland, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. Decomposing inflation uncertainty into two components – impulse and structural, a positive association was found between the expected inflation and interest rates. Structural uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on interest rates for some countries. It has also been found that the long-run effects of inflation on interest rates are less than unity for the post-inflation targeting period, which implies that in some respect the Central Bank has been successful in targeting inflation. This has allowed the Central Bank to employ a less restrictive monetary policy in an environment of a credible inflation-targeting strategy. Research limitations/implications - Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) can be used instead of GARCH modelling. Originality/value - This is the first study that has tried to establish the link between different types of inflation uncertainty and interest rates for the inflation-targeting countries to see the effect of inflation targeting.

Macroeconomic Factors and Bank and Finance Stock Prices: The Australian Experience

This paper investigates the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock prices in the banking and finance sector in Australia using quarterly data for the period 1980Q1-99Q1. The research methodology consists of conducting cointegration tests and estimating an error correction model for examining the long run relationship between bank and finance stock prices and macroeconomic variables such as inflation, interest rate and real GDP growth. The study reveals that the bank and finance stock prices are cointegrated with all three macroeconomic variables. The interest rate has a negative effect, whereas GDP growth has a positive effect on stock prices. Inflation has no significant effect on stock prices, which supports Famas proxy hypothesis.

The Importance of Mathematics Background and Student Performance in A Property Degree

Abstract This paper investigates the relative importance of a wide range of academic and personal variables that may impact on student performance in a property degree. In particular, the importance of the property students’ mathematics background and prior knowledge is assessed. Using a multi-year data set over 2006–2010, regression analysis (OLS) and quantile regression analysis are used to quantify the marginal learning effects of specific variables, including mathematics background. This issue is assessed at the overall property student performance level ( Grade Point Average (GPA) on completion of property degree) and at the individual property subject level (3 valuation subjects). Mathematics background is seen to be an important determinant of success in the property degree; particularly in the more advanced valuation subjects requiring cashflow analysis. The property education implications are also highlighted.

The impact of student characteristics on academic achievement: Findings from an online undergraduate property program

This study provides an empirical investigation into the impact of individual student characteristics on academic achievement through an online undergraduate property program. Using a multi-year data set over 2007–2012, the results from our OLS regressions show that there is a significant positive association between university entry scores and academic achievement in an online undergraduate property program. In addition, student performance is significantly related to age and the grades that the students receive in two core knowledge subjects. Further property education implications are also highlighted.

Do the Determinants of Employability and Earnings Returns Produce Similar Outcomes in Metropolitan and Regional Labour Markets? The Case of New South Wales, Australia

Mallik G., Basu P. K., Hicks J. and Sappey R. Do the determinants of employability and earnings returns produce similar outcomes in metropolitan and regional labour markets? The case of New South Wales, Australia, Regional Studies. This paper analyses and compares the determinants of employability and earnings return outcomes in two diversified labour markets in Australia. Using advanced econometric techniques to analyse Confidentialised Unit Record Files (CURF) data from the 2006 Census, the paper identifies educational qualifications, broad occupational group, immigration status and age as the major determinants. In general, the metropolitan Sydney market places a greater value on higher education qualifications than do labour markets in the regions; immigrants, particularly from non-English speaking countries, are more likely to be disadvantaged in Sydney; and ageing provides a mixed impact in regional areas where on average older people work longer, but at lower wages.

Effects of Housing Allowances on Housing Prices in Australia: A Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of the housing allowance for first homebuyers provided by the Federal government, together with nominal interest rate and employment on housing prices in Australia using cointegration analysis and an error correction model. Granger causality is also tested. Results show that the growth rates in average house prices for established houses and for project homes are Granger caused jointly by employment growth and interest rate increases. The cointegration analysis shows that housing prices are positively affected by falling interest rates and rising employment. The recent housing allowance is found to have a positive and significant effect on housing prices in Australia.