Gisela Dahlquist

Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

BACKGROUND The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe. METHODS 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log linear rates of increase were estimated in five geographical regions, and used in conjunction with published incidence rates and population projections to predict numbers of new cases throughout Europe in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. FINDINGS Ascertainment was better than 90% in most registers. All but two registers showed significant yearly increases in incidence, ranging from 0.6% to 9.3%. The overall annual increase was 3.9% (95% CI 3.6-4.2), and the increases in the age groups 0-4 years, 5-9 years, and 10-14 years were 5.4% (4.8-6.1), 4.3% (3.8-4.8), and 2.9% (2.5-3.3), respectively. The number of new cases in Europe in 2005 is estimated as 15 000, divided between the 0-4 year, 5-9 year, and 10-14 year age-groups in the ratio 24%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. In 2020, the predicted number of new cases is 24 400, with a doubling in numbers in children younger than 5 years and a more even distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020. INTERPRETATION If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years is predicted between 2005 and 2020, and prevalent cases younger than 15 years will rise by 70%. Adequate health-care resources to meet these childrens needs should be made available. FUNDING European Community Concerted Action Program.

Neurological sequelae in children born after in-vitro fertilisation: a population-based study

BACKGROUND There is an absence of population-based long-term studies on the risk of neurological sequelae in children born after in-vitro fertilisation (IVF). Our aim was to compare the frequency of such problems between IVF-born children and controls. METHODS We did a population-based retrospective cohort study in which we compared development of neurological problems in 5680 children born after IVF, with 11360 matched controls. For 2060 twins born after IVF, a second set of controls (n=4120), all twins, were selected. We obtained data on neurological problems from the records of the Swedish habilitation centres. FINDINGS Children born after IVF are more likely to need habilitation services than controls (odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.2). For singletons, the risk was 1.4 (1.0-2.1). The most common neurological diagnosis was cerebral palsy, for which children born after IVF had an increased risk of 3.7(2.0-6.6), and IVF singletons of 2.8 (1.3-5.8). Suspected developmental delay was increased four-fold (1.9-8.3) in children born after IVF. Twins born after IVF did not differ from control twins with respect to risk of neurological sequelae. Low-birthweight and premature infants were more likely to need habilitation than fullterm babies. Maternal age did not affect risk. INTERPRETATION Our study suggests that children born after IVF have an increased risk of developing neurological problems, especially cerebral palsy. These risks are largely due to the high frequency of twin pregnancies, low birthweight, and prematurity among babies born after IVF. To limit these risks, we recommend that only one embryo should be transferred during IVF.

Trends in childhood type 1 diabetes incidence in Europe during 1989–2008: evidence of non-uniformity over time in rates of increase

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of the study was to describe 20-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in 23 EURODIAB centres and compare rates of increase in the first (1989–1998) and second (1999–2008) halves of the period.MethodsAll registers operate in geographically defined regions and are based on a clinical diagnosis. Completeness of registration is assessed by capture–recapture methodology. Twenty-three centres in 19 countries registered 49,969 new cases of type 1 diabetes in individuals diagnosed before their 15th birthday during the period studied.ResultsAscertainment exceeded 90% in most registers. During the 20-year period, all but one register showed statistically significant changes in incidence, with rates universally increasing. When estimated separately for the first and second halves of the period, the median rates of increase were similar: 3.4% per annum and 3.3% per annum, respectively. However, rates of increase differed significantly between the first half and the second half for nine of the 21 registers with adequate coverage of both periods; five registers showed significantly higher rates of increase in the first half, and four significantly higher rates in the second half.Conclusions/interpretationThe incidence rate of childhood type 1 diabetes continues to rise across Europe by an average of approximately 3–4% per annum, but the increase is not necessarily uniform, showing periods of less rapid and more rapid increase in incidence in some registers. This pattern of change suggests that important risk exposures differ over time in different European countries. Further time trend analysis and comparison of the patterns in defined regions is warranted.

Worldwide childhood type 1 diabetes incidence--what can we learn from epidemiology?

Abstract:  Type 1 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes in most part of the world, although reliable data are still unavailable in several countries. Wide variations exist between the incidence rates of different populations, incidence is lowest in China and Venezuela (0.1 per 100 000 per year) and highest in Finland and Sardinia (37 per 100 000 per year). In most populations girls and boys are equally affected. In general, the incidence increases with age, the incidence peak is at puberty. After the pubertal years, the incidence rate significantly drops in young women, but remains relatively high in young adult males up to the age 29–35 years. Prospective national and large international registries (DIAMOND and EURODIAB) demonstrated an increasing trend in incidence in most regions of the world over the last few decades and increases seem to be the highest in the youngest age group. Analytical epidemiological studies have identified environmental risk factors operating early in life which might have contributed to the increasing trend in incidence. These include enteroviral infections in pregnant women, older maternal age (39–42 years), preeclampsia, cesarean section delivery, increased birthweight, early introduction of cow’s milk proteins and an increased rate of postnatal growth (weight and height). Optimal vitamin D supplementation during early life has been shown to be protective. Some of these environmental risk factors such as viruses may initiate autoimmunity toward the beta cell, other exposures may put on overload on the already affected beta cell and thus accelerate the disease process.

Dietary factors and the risk of developing insulin dependent diabetes in childhood.

OBJECTIVE--To study different nutrients and food additives as risk factors for insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in childhood. DESIGN--Prospective case-control study. Parents of the children being studied were asked to fill in a questionnaire regarding the childrens frequency of consumption of various foods. Parents of children with diabetes were asked about the period before onset of the disease. SETTING--Population based study throughout Sweden. SUBJECTS--339 Children aged 0-14 who had recently developed insulin dependent diabetes mellitus and 528 control children matched for age, sex, and county of residence who were traced through the official Swedish population register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Foods were classified according to their content of protein, fat, carbohydrates, monosaccharides or disaccharides, nitrosamines, nitrates or nitrites, vitamin C, and fibres. The frequency of intake was categorised as high, medium, and low and the relative risk for developing insulin dependent diabetes was estimated for the three frequencies of intake and calculated as odds ratios. RESULTS--Significant linear trends for dose response in odds ratios by frequency of intake were shown for solid foods containing high amounts of protein (odds ratio for low frequency of intake 1.0; medium 2.3; and high 5.5), and nitrosamines (1.0; 1.7; 2.6) and significant but non-linear trends were found for carbohydrates (1.0; 1.3; 4.4) and nitrates or nitrites (1.0; 0.8; 2.4). The significant trends were not affected when the results were standardised for possible confounders. No significant increases in odds ratios were found for protein, monosaccharides and disaccharides, vitamin C, and fibres. CONCLUSION--Nutrients and food additives such as protein, carbohydrate, and nitrosamine compounds may influence the risk of developing insulin dependent diabetes in childhood and significant trends in odds ratios indicate a causal relation.

Maternal Enteroviral Infection During Pregnancy as a Risk Factor for ChildHood IDDM: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

Using the nationwide childhood-onset diabetes register in Sweden, we were able to trace children who contracted diabetes before the age of 15 years and who were born at a specific hospital in Sweden where maternal sera from delivery had been stored during the years 1969-1989. Sera obtained at delivery from 57 mothers of diabetic children were compared with sera from 203 mothers of control subjects who were delivered at the same hospital during the same time period. The sera were analyzed blindly using a group-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for enteroviral IgG and IgM antibodies before and after urea wash as an avidity test. On the same plates, IgG antibodies to herpes, mumps, and toxoplasmosis were analyzed. The mean absorbance values of enteroviral IgG antibodies against enteroviral antigens (echo30, coxsackie B5, and echo9) were significantly higher among mothers whose children later developed diabetes (P = 0.002, P = 0.02, and P = 0.04, respectively). When reduction in activity after urea wash, indicating recently formed antibodies, was compared, the differences were even more pronounced (P < 0.001 for all three antigens). No significant differences were found for antibodies against herpes (all types), herpes type 2, mumps, or toxoplasmosis. When IgM activity and/or a significant decrease in avidity index, an indication of recent enterovirus infection, was used as a risk exposure, the odds ratio standardized for year of birth (95% confidence interval) was 3.19 (1.39–7.30). We conclude that the results of this study indicate that enteroviral infection during pregnancy is a risk factor for childhood-onset diabetes in the offspring. Whether one or several viruses in the enterovirus group are responsible remains to be discovered.

Diabetes in the young - a global view and worldwide estimates of numbers of children with type 1 diabetes

This paper describes the methodology, results and limitations of the 2013 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Atlas (6th edition) estimates of the worldwide numbers of prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in children (<15 years). The majority of relevant information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly diagnosed cases. Studies were graded on quality criteria and, if no information was available in the published literature, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Prevalence rates were then derived from these incidence rates and applied to United Nations 2012 Revision population estimates for 2013 for each country to obtain estimates of the number of prevalent cases. Data availability was highest for the countries in Europe (76%) and lowest for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa (8%). The prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 500,000 children aged under 15 years with type 1 diabetes worldwide, the largest numbers being in Europe (129,000) and North America (108,700). Countries with the highest estimated numbers of new cases annually were the United States (13,000), India (10,900) and Brazil (5000). Compared with the prevalence estimates made in previous editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, the numbers have increased in most of the IDF Regions, often reflecting the incidence rate increases that have been well-documented in many countries. Monogenic diabetes is increasingly being recognised among those with clinical features of type 1 or type 2 diabetes as genetic studies become available, but population-based data on incidence and prevalence show wide variation due to lack of standardisation in the studies. Similarly, studies on type 2 diabetes in childhood suggest increased incidence and prevalence in many countries, especially in Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities, but detailed population-based studies remain limited.

Thirty Years of Prospective Nationwide Incidence of Childhood Type 1 Diabetes: The Accelerating Increase by Time Tends to Level Off in Sweden

OBJECTIVE During the past few decades, a rapidly increasing incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been reported from many parts of the world. The change over time has been partly explained by changes in lifestyle causing rapid early growth and weight development. The current study models and analyzes the time trend by age, sex, and birth cohort in an exceptionally large study group. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The present analysis involved 14,721 incident cases of T1D with an onset of 0–14.9 years that were recorded in the nationwide Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry from 1978 to 2007. Data were analyzed using generalized additive models. RESULTS Age- and sex-specific incidence rates varied from 21.6 (95% CI 19.4–23.9) during 1978–1980 to 43.9 (95% CI 40.7–47.3) during 2005–2007. Cumulative incidence by birth cohort shifted to a younger age at onset during the first 22 years, but from the birth year 2000 a statistically significant reversed trend (P < 0.01) was seen. CONCLUSIONS Childhood T1D increased dramatically and shifted to a younger age at onset the first 22 years of the study period. We report a reversed trend, starting in 2000, indicating a change in nongenetic risk factors affecting specifically young children.

Can we slow the rising incidence of childhood-onset autoimmune diabetes? The overload hypothesis

Overload of the beta cell, mediated by a variety of mechanisms, may sensitise it to immune damage and apoptosis, and thus accelerate ongoing autoimmune processes leading to its destruction. Environmental risk determinants that may exert such overload effects include insulin resistance due to excess fat cell accumulation, and increased insulin requirement due to a high growth rate, physical stress (infection, inflammation) or psychological stress. The increasing incidence of childhood diabetes, and the shift to younger age at onset, is unlikely to be driven by environmental risk factors that have been associated with initiation of autoimmunity, e.g. virus infections or early infant feeding. Risk factors that may accelerate beta cell destruction have shown a steady increase in the population, and are more plausible causes of such a pattern of change. Child growth, weight and birthweight are well-established estimates of community wealth and increase in most countries of Europe. Overfeeding of children early in life leads to both accelerated growth and weight, and even a moderate excess of child growth, not necessarily associated with obesity, is associated with risk of type 1 diabetes. New, safe and effective immune-modulating drugs for possible arrest of the autoimmune process may become available in time, but in the interim these accelerating factors may be targeted. Public health programmes for pregnant mothers and young families, aiming at changing overfeeding and the sedentary lifestyle of the children would be preferable to other alternatives. Interventions such as these would be safe and could potentially influence future risks of type 1 and type 2 diabetes and other major threats to adult health.

Maternal-child blood group incompatibility and other perinatal events increase the risk for early-onset type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus

SummaryThe nationwide Swedish Childhood Diabetes Registry, which ascertains 99% of recent-onset Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetic children (0–14 years) in Sweden, was linked with the Swedish Medical Birth Registry. A matched case-control study was carried out analysing about 20 perinatal variables concerning mother and child. A total of 2757 infants who became diabetic during the period 1978–1988 were analysed. For each case infant three control children were randomly selected from among all infants born in the same year and at the same delivery unit as the case infant. The following statistically significant risk factors were identified for Type 1 diabetes with an onset before 15 years of age: maternal diabetes (OR=3.90), maternal age above 35 (OR=1.36), maternal non-smoking (OR=1.54), pre-ec-lamptic toxaemia (OR=1.19), caesarian section (OR=1.32), and maternal-child blood group incompatibility (OR=1.61). When the analysis was restricted to Type 1 diabetes with an onset before the age of 5 years, most odds ratios were increased — for blood group incompatibility OR=3.86 (95% confidence interval 1.54–9.65). Icterus without blood group incompatibility was not a significant risk factor. When each risk factor was analysed after standardization for all other risk factors, the odds ratios remained significantly increased. Scrutiny of medical records for cases and control children with a diagnosis of blood group incompatibility verified the diagnosis in close to 90% of children. The more severe cases needing phototherapy and/or blood transfusion were found to have a greater risk than milder cases. In conclusion, an early immunological event due to maternal-child blood group incompatibility, known to be associated with neonatal Beta-cell dysfunction, represents an increased risk for Type 1 diabetes in young children. Other stressful perinatal events may also be risk factors for Type 1 diabetes.