Giulio Caravagna

The calculus of looping sequences

We describe the Calculus of Looping Sequences (CLS) which is suitable for modeling microbiological systems and their evolution. We present two extensions, CLS with links (LCLS) and Stochastic CLS. LCLS simplifies the description of protein interaction at a lower level of abstraction, namely at the domain level. Stochastic CLS allows us to describe quantitative aspects of the modeled systems, such as the frequency of chemical reactions. As examples of application to real biological systems, we show the simulation of the activity of the lactose operon in E.coli and the quorum sensing process in P.aeruginosa, both described with Stochastic CLS.

The Interplay of Intrinsic and Extrinsic Bounded Noises in Biomolecular Networks

After being considered as a nuisance to be filtered out, it became recently clear that biochemical noise plays a complex role, often fully functional, for a biomolecular network. The influence of intrinsic and extrinsic noises on biomolecular networks has intensively been investigated in last ten years, though contributions on the co-presence of both are sparse. Extrinsic noise is usually modeled as an unbounded white or colored gaussian stochastic process, even though realistic stochastic perturbations are clearly bounded. In this paper we consider Gillespie-like stochastic models of nonlinear networks, i.e. the intrinsic noise, where the model jump rates are affected by colored bounded extrinsic noises synthesized by a suitable biochemical state-dependent Langevin system. These systems are described by a master equation, and a simulation algorithm to analyze them is derived. This new modeling paradigm should enlarge the class of systems amenable at modeling. We investigated the influence of both amplitude and autocorrelation time of a extrinsic Sine-Wiener noise on: the Michaelis-Menten approximation of noisy enzymatic reactions, which we show to be applicable also in co-presence of both intrinsic and extrinsic noise, a model of enzymatic futile cycle and a genetic toggle switch. In and we show that the presence of a bounded extrinsic noise induces qualitative modifications in the probability densities of the involved chemicals, where new modes emerge, thus suggesting the possible functional role of bounded noises.

Inferring Tree Causal Models of Cancer Progression with Probability Raising

Existing techniques to reconstruct tree models of progression for accumulative processes, such as cancer, seek to estimate causation by combining correlation and a frequentist notion of temporal priority. In this paper, we define a novel theoretical framework called CAPRESE (CAncer PRogression Extraction with Single Edges) to reconstruct such models based on the notion of probabilistic causation defined by Suppes. We consider a general reconstruction setting complicated by the presence of noise in the data due to biological variation, as well as experimental or measurement errors. To improve tolerance to noise we define and use a shrinkage-like estimator. We prove the correctness of our algorithm by showing asymptotic convergence to the correct tree under mild constraints on the level of noise. Moreover, on synthetic data, we show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art, that it is efficient even with a relatively small number of samples and that its performance quickly converges to its asymptote as the number of samples increases. For real cancer datasets obtained with different technologies, we highlight biologically significant differences in the progressions inferred with respect to other competing techniques and we also show how to validate conjectured biological relations with progression models.

Tumour suppression by immune system through stochastic oscillations

The well-known Kirschner-Panetta model for tumour-immune System interplay [Kirschner, D., Panetta, J.C., 1998. Modelling immunotherapy of the tumour-immune interaction. J. Math. Biol. 37 (3), 235-252] reproduces a number of features of this essential interaction, but it excludes the possibility of tumour suppression by the immune system in the absence of therapy. Here we present a hybrid-stochastic version of that model. In this new framework, we show that in reality the model is also able to reproduce the suppression, through stochastic extinction after the first spike of an oscillation.

Algorithmic methods to infer the evolutionary trajectories in cancer progression

Significance A causality-based machine learning Pipeline for Cancer Inference (PiCnIc) is introduced to infer the underlying somatic evolution of ensembles of tumors from next-generation sequencing data. PiCnIc combines techniques for sample stratification, driver selection, and identification of fitness-equivalent exclusive alterations to exploit an algorithm based on Suppes’ probabilistic causation. The accuracy and translational significance of the results are studied in detail, with an application to colorectal cancer. The PiCnIc pipeline has been made publicly accessible for reproducibility, interoperability, and future enhancements. The genomic evolution inherent to cancer relates directly to a renewed focus on the voluminous next-generation sequencing data and machine learning for the inference of explanatory models of how the (epi)genomic events are choreographed in cancer initiation and development. However, despite the increasing availability of multiple additional -omics data, this quest has been frustrated by various theoretical and technical hurdles, mostly stemming from the dramatic heterogeneity of the disease. In this paper, we build on our recent work on the “selective advantage” relation among driver mutations in cancer progression and investigate its applicability to the modeling problem at the population level. Here, we introduce PiCnIc (Pipeline for Cancer Inference), a versatile, modular, and customizable pipeline to extract ensemble-level progression models from cross-sectional sequenced cancer genomes. The pipeline has many translational implications because it combines state-of-the-art techniques for sample stratification, driver selection, identification of fitness-equivalent exclusive alterations, and progression model inference. We demonstrate PiCnIc’s ability to reproduce much of the current knowledge on colorectal cancer progression as well as to suggest novel experimentally verifiable hypotheses.

Fine-tuning anti-tumor immunotherapies via stochastic simulations

BackgroundAnti-tumor therapies aim at reducing to zero the number of tumor cells in a host within their end or, at least, aim at leaving the patient with a sufficiently small number of tumor cells so that the residual tumor can be eradicated by the immune system. Besides severe side-effects, a key problem of such therapies is finding a suitable scheduling of their administration to the patients. In this paper we study the effect of varying therapy-related parameters on the final outcome of the interplay between a tumor and the immune system.ResultsThis work generalizes our previous study on hybrid models of such an interplay where interleukins are modeled as a continuous variable, and the tumor and the immune system as a discrete-state continuous-time stochastic process. The hybrid model we use is obtained by modifying the corresponding deterministic model, originally proposed by Kirschner and Panetta. We consider Adoptive Cellular Immunotherapies and Interleukin-based therapies, as well as their combination. By asymptotic and transitory analyses of the corresponding deterministic model we find conditions guaranteeing tumor eradication, and we tune the parameters of the hybrid model accordingly. We then perform stochastic simulations of the hybrid model under various therapeutic settings: constant, piece-wise constant or impulsive infusion and daily or weekly delivery schedules.ConclusionsResults suggest that, in some cases, the delivery schedule may deeply impact on the therapy-induced tumor eradication time. Indeed, our model suggests that Interleukin-based therapies may not be effective for every patient, and that the piece-wise constant is the most effective delivery to stimulate the immune-response. For Adoptive Cellular Immunotherapies a metronomic delivery seems more effective, as it happens for other anti-angiogenesis therapies and chemotherapies, and the impulsive delivery seems more effective than the piece-wise constant. The expected synergistic effects have been observed when the therapies are combined.

Bio-PEPAd: A non-Markovian extension of Bio-PEPA

Delays in biological systems may be used to model events for which the underlying dynamics cannot be precisely observed, or to provide abstraction of some behavior of the system resulting in more compact models. In this paper, we enrich the stochastic process algebra Bio-PEPA, with the possibility of assigning delays to actions, yielding a new non-Markovian stochastic process algebra: Bio-PEPAd. This is a conservative extension meaning that the original syntax of Bio-PEPA is retained and the delay specification which can now be associated with actions may be added to existing Bio-PEPA models. The semantics of the firing of the actions with delays is the delay-as-duration approach, earlier presented in papers on the stochastic simulation of biological systems with delays. This semantics of the algebra is given in the Starting-Terminating style, meaning that the state and the completion of an action are observed as two separate events, as required by delays. We formally define the encoding of Bio-PEPAd systems in Generalized Semi-Markov Processes (GSMPs), as input for a Delay Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (DSSA) and as sets of Delay Differential Equations (DDEs), the deterministic framework for modeling of biological systems with delays. Finally, we prove theorems stating the relation between Bio-PEPA and Bio-PEPAd models. We end the paper with an example model of biological systems with delays to illustrate the approach.

Investigating the relation between stochastic differentiation, homeostasis and clonal expansion in intestinal crypts via multiscale modeling.

Colorectal tumors originate and develop within intestinal crypts. Even though some of the essential phenomena that characterize crypt structure and dynamics have been effectively described in the past, the relation between the differentiation process and the overall crypt homeostasis is still only partially understood. We here investigate this relation and other important biological phenomena by introducing a novel multiscale model that combines a morphological description of the crypt with a gene regulation model: the emergent dynamical behavior of the underlying gene regulatory network drives cell growth and differentiation processes, linking the two distinct spatio-temporal levels. The model relies on a few a priori assumptions, yet accounting for several key processes related to crypt functioning, such as: dynamic gene activation patterns, stochastic differentiation, signaling pathways ruling cell adhesion properties, cell displacement, cell growth, mitosis, apoptosis and the presence of biological noise. We show that this modeling approach captures the major dynamical phenomena that characterize the regular physiology of crypts, such as cell sorting, coordinate migration, dynamic turnover, stem cell niche correct positioning and clonal expansion. All in all, the model suggests that the process of stochastic differentiation might be sufficient to drive the crypt to homeostasis, under certain crypt configurations. Besides, our approach allows to make precise quantitative inferences that, when possible, were matched to the current biological knowledge and it permits to investigate the role of gene-level perturbations, with reference to cancer development. We also remark the theoretical framework is general and may be applied to different tissues, organs or organisms.

CABeRNET: a Cytoscape app for augmented Boolean models of gene regulatory NETworks

BackgroundDynamical models of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) are highly effective in describing complex biological phenomena and processes, such as cell differentiation and cancer development. Yet, the topological and functional characterization of real GRNs is often still partial and an exhaustive picture of their functioning is missing.ResultsWe here introduce CABeRNET, a Cytoscape app for the generation, simulation and analysis of Boolean models of GRNs, specifically focused on their augmentation when a only partial topological and functional characterization of the network is available. By generating large ensembles of networks in which user-defined entities and relations are added to the original core, CABeRNET allows to formulate hypotheses on the missing portions of real networks, as well to investigate their generic properties, in the spirit of complexity science.ConclusionsCABeRNET offers a series of innovative simulation and modeling functions and tools, including (but not being limited to) the dynamical characterization of the gene activation patterns ruling cell types and differentiation fates, and sophisticated robustness assessments, as in the case of gene knockouts. The integration within the widely used Cytoscape framework for the visualization and analysis of biological networks, makes CABeRNET a new essential instrument for both the bioinformatician and the computational biologist, as well as a computational support for the experimentalist. An example application concerning the analysis of an augmented T-helper cell GRN is provided.

Bounded noises as a natural tool to model extrinsic fluctuations in biomolecular networks

In the first part of this invited paper we review the role of both extrinsic and intrinsic stochasticity in shaping the dynamics of biomolecular networks. In particular, we stress the use of bounded stochastic processes as a model of extrinsic random perturbations. In the second part, we propose three examples of molecular circuits under the influence of external fluctuations modeled by means of bounded noises. The first two examples involve the linear decay of a protein with, respectively, large or low number of molecules, so to stress different modeling approaches. The third example concerns the spatio-temporal dynamics of proteins determining the chemotaxis-driven polarization of a cell. In these examples one can observe phenomena that are dependent on the specific class of employed bounded noise.