Giuseppe Amatulli

Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review

This article reviews major impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry.

Comprehensive Monitoring of Wildfires in Europe: The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS)

Fires are an integral component of ecosystem dynamics in European landscapes. However, uncontrolled fires cause large environmental and economic damages, especially in the Mediterranean region. On average, about 65000 fires occur in Europe every year, burning approximately half a million ha of wildland and forest areas; most of the burnt area, over 85%, is in the European Mediterranean region. Trends in number of fires and burnt areas in the Mediterranean region are presented in Fig. 1.

Estimating future burned areas under changing climate in the EU-Mediterranean countries

The impacts of climate change on forest fires have received increased attention in recent years at both continental and local scales. It is widely recognized that weather plays a key role in extreme fire situations. It is therefore of great interest to analyze projected changes in fire danger under climate change scenarios and to assess the consequent impacts of forest fires. In this study we estimated burned areas in the European Mediterranean (EU-Med) countries under past and future climate conditions. Historical (1985-2004) monthly burned areas in EU-Med countries were modeled by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index (CFWI). Monthly averages of the CFWI sub-indices were used as explanatory variables to estimate the monthly burned areas in each of the five most affected countries in Europe using three different modeling approaches (Multiple Linear Regression - MLR, Random Forest - RF, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines - MARS). MARS outperformed the other methods. Regression equations and significant coefficients of determination were obtained, although there were noticeable differences from country to country. Climatic conditions at the end of the 21st Century were simulated using results from the runs of the regional climate model HIRHAM in the European project PRUDENCE, considering two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2-B2). The MARS models were applied to both scenarios resulting in projected burned areas in each country and in the EU-Med region. Results showed that significant increases, 66% and 140% of the total burned area, can be expected in the EU-Med region under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively.

Weather Factors and Fire Danger in the Mediterranean

We recall the main elements of fire weather in the Mediterranean environment and present the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as the fire danger rating system currently most widely applied in Mediterranean Europe. We also present the results of some calibration studies of the FWI System component carried out in the Mediterranean environment by various authors. Secondly, we look at the distribution of FWI System component values during the 2,816 major fires (i.e. fires with final size > 500 ha) recorded in Southern Europe in the last 28 years. Finally we present a regression model we have developed that predicts (R2 = 0.87) monthly burned area in the European Mediterranean basin from monthly averages of the Initial Spread Index (ISI) and Drought Code (DC) components of FWI, valid for the months May to November.

Modelling and mapping the suitability of European forest formations at 1-km resolution

Proactive forest conservation planning requires spatially accurate information about the potential distribution of tree species. The most cost-efficient way to obtain this information is habitat suitability modelling i.e. predicting the potential distribution of biota as a function of environmental factors. Here, we used the bootstrap-aggregating machine-learning ensemble classifier Random Forest (RF) to derive a 1-km resolution European forest formation suitability map. The statistical model use as inputs more than 6,000 field data forest inventory plots and a large set of environmental variables. The field data plots were classified into different forest formations using the forest category classification scheme of the European Environmental Agency. The ten most dominant forest categories excluding plantations were chosen for the analysis. Model results have an overall accuracy of 76%. Between categories scores were unbalanced and Mesophitic deciduous forests were found to be the least correctly classified forest category. The model’s variable ranking scores are used to discuss relationship between forest category/environmental factors and to gain insight into the model’s limits and strengths for map applicability. The European forest suitability map is now available for further applications in forest conservation and climate change issues.