Glenn E. Stauffer

Evaluating the demographic buffering hypothesis with vital rates estimated for Weddell seals from 30 years of mark–recapture data

1. Life-history theory predicts that those vital rates that make larger contributions to population growth rate ought to be more strongly buffered against environmental variability than are those that are less important. Despite the importance of the theory for predicting demographic responses to changes in the environment, it is not yet known how pervasive demographic buffering is in animal populations because the validity of most existing studies has been called into question because of methodological deficiencies. 2. We tested for demographic buffering in the southern-most breeding mammal population in the world using data collected from 5558 known-age female Weddell seals over 30 years. We first estimated all vital rates simultaneously with mark-recapture analysis and then estimated process variance and covariance in those rates using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. We next calculated the population growth rates sensitivity to changes in each of the vital rates and tested for evidence of demographic buffering by comparing properly scaled values of sensitivity and process variance in vital rates. 3. We found evidence of positive process covariance between vital rates, which indicates that all vital rates are affected in the same direction by changes in annual environment. Despite the positive correlations, we found strong evidence that demographic buffering occurred through reductions in variation in the vital rates to which population growth rate was most sensitive. Process variation in vital rates was inversely related to sensitivity measures such that variation was greatest in breeding probabilities, intermediate for survival rates of young animals and lowest for survival rates of older animals. 4. Our work contributes to a small but growing set of studies that have used rigorous methods on long-term, detailed data to investigate demographic responses to environmental variation. The information from these studies improves our understanding of life-history evolution in stochastic environments and provides useful information for predicting population responses to future environmental change. Our results for an Antarctic apex predator also provide useful baselines from a marine ecosystem when its top- and middle-trophic levels were not substantially impacted by human activity.

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Nest Success of Grassland Sparrows on Reclaimed Surface Mines

ABSTRACT Grasslands resulting from surface mine reclamation support grassland songbird populations in several midwestern and eastern states in the United States, especially where reclaimed mines are large (>1,000 ha). However, most reclaimed surface mines in Pennsylvania are small (<200 ha), and nest success is unknown. We evaluated nest success of grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum), Henslows (A. henslowii), and Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) on 4 reclaimed surface mines (50–180 ha) in western Pennsylvania, USA from 2006 to 2007. Overall nest success based on mean covariate values was 0.435 (95% CI = 0.376–0.504) for grasshopper sparrows, 0.396 (95% CI = 0.295–0.533) for Henslows sparrows, and 0.158 (95% CI = 0.063–0.392) for Savannah sparrows. These estimates of nest success are comparable to those on larger reclaimed mines and other habitats. Grasshopper and Henslows sparrow nests that were well concealed were less likely to fail than highly visible nests (&bgr;visible = -0.028, CI = -0.051 to -0.005 for grasshopper sparrows; &bgr;visible = -0.063, CI = -0.112 to -0.014 for Henslows sparrows), and nests in areas with surrounding deep litter were more likely to fail than nests in areas with shallow litter (&bgr;litterD = -0.145, CI = -0.335 to 0.045 for grasshopper sparrows; &bgr;litterD = -0.676, CI = -1.187 to -0.116 for Henslows sparrows). Savannah sparrow nests in areas with high visual obstruction by vegetation were less likely to fail than nests in areas with sparse and short vegetation (&bgr;VisOb = 0.048, CI = 0.006–0.091). Daily probability of survival for grasshopper sparrow nests was greatest early and late in the breeding season, and Savannah sparrow nest survival followed a decreasing linear trend. Nest survival of Henslows sparrows was greater on warm days (&bgr;temp = 0.197, CI = 0.014–0.379), whereas for Savannah sparrows nest survival decreased on warm days and on days with rain, but for Savannah sparrows confidence intervals of weather effects included zero (&bgr;temp = -0.098, CI = -0.246 to 0.050; &bgr;rain = 3.13, CI = -14.19 to 20.45). We suggest that small reclaimed surface mine grasslands can provide valuable nesting habitat and could be important to the conservation of grassland bird populations. Because nest success can increase in the latter part of the nesting season, agricultural disturbances or management activities in mid- to late summer could adversely affect reproductive success.

Environmental correlates of temporary emigration for female Weddell seals and consequences for recruitment

In colonial-breeding species, prebreeders often emigrate temporarily from natal reproductive colonies then subsequently return for one or more years before producing young. Variation in attendance-nonattendance patterns can have implications for subsequent recruitment. We used open robust-design multistate models and 28 years of encounter data for prebreeding female Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii (Lesson)) to evaluate hypotheses about (1) the relationships of temporary emigration (TE) probabilities to environmental and population size covariates and (2) motivations for attendance and consequences of nonattendance for subsequent probability of recruitment to the breeding population. TE probabilities were density dependent (ˆ bBPOP ¼ 0.66, c SE ¼ 0.17; estimated effects (b) and standard errors of population size in the previous year) and increased when the fast-ice edge was distant from the breeding colonies (ˆ bDIST ¼ 0.75, c SE ¼ 0.04; estimated effects and standard errors of distance to the sea-ice edge in the current year on TE probability in the current year) and were strongly age and state dependent. These results suggest that trade-offs between potential benefits and costs of colony attendance vary annually and might influence motivation to attend colonies. Recruitment probabilities were greatest for seals that consistently attended colonies in two or more years (e.g., ˆ wage10 ¼ 0.56, SD ¼ 0.17) and lowest for seals that never or inconsistently attended prior to recruitment (e.g., ˆ wage10 ¼ 0.32, SD ¼ 0.15), where ˆ wage10 denotes the mean recruitment probability (over all years) for 10-year-old seals for the specified prebreeder state. In colonial-breeding seabirds, repeated colony attendance increases subsequent probability of recruitment to the adult breeding population; our results suggest similar implications for a marine mammal and are consistent with the hypothesis that prebreeders were motivated to attend reproductive colonies to gain reproductive skills or perhaps to optimally synchronize estrus through close association with mature breeding females.

Shifts in vegetation and avian community structure following the decline of a foundational forest species, the eastern hemlock

ABSTRACT Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) is undergoing widespread decline throughout the eastern United States due to the introduction of the nonnative hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae). In light of hemlocks unique significance for avian communities, we examined the long-term response of the breeding bird community to the decline and die-off of this foundational forest species. We conducted variable-radius point counts to survey bird communities in both hemlock and hardwood stands in 2000, during the early stages of adelgid infestation, and again in 2015 and 2016, following significant hemlock decline. We also measured the severity of hemlock decline and associated vegetation variables in the same hemlock stands in which avian surveys were completed. We used multispecies occupancy models to examine species-specific and species group responses to hemlock decline. Results showed that, across hemlock stands, hemlock basal area declined from a mean of 56% of the total basal area to 46%, and that hemlock decline was correlated with current vegetation structure, including an increased deciduous understory. Species richness of hemlock-associated birds declined by an average of ∼1 species per survey location. The Black-throated Green Warbler (Setophaga virens) was the most strongly affected, declining in occupancy by 30%. All other species groups responded positively, with the strongest responses by species associated with the shrub layer, forest edge, and mature deciduous habitat. The species composition in hemlock and hardwood stands became more similar over time as the unique species assemblages in hemlock stands gave way to the avian community of the surrounding hardwood landscape, highlighting a trend toward homogenization of the avian community. Where hemlock-associated bird species persisted, their presence was correlated with a combined effect of greater hemlock basal area and better hemlock condition. Our results demonstrate that the decline of hemlocks has restructured vegetation communities and their associated avian communities over time, with strong implications for forest-specialist birds.