Glenn Fowler

Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to create pest risk maps, and can potentially yield different depictions of risk for the same species. Inherent uncertainties about the biology of the invader, future climate conditions, and species interactions further complicate map interpretation. If multiple maps are available, risk managers must choose how to incorporate the various representations of risk into their decisionmaking process, and may make significant errors if they misunderstand what each map portrays. This article describes the need for pest risk maps, compares pest risk mapping methods, and recommends future research to improve such important decision-support tools.

NAPPFAST : An internet system for the weather-based mapping of plant pathogens

In recent years, the number of exotic pest introductions has increased rapidly as a result of increased volume of trade (22). The serious and sometimes irreparable ecological and economic damage of exotic pathogens, such as Cryphonectria parasitica, Ophiostoma novo-ulmi, and Phytophthora ramorum, the causal agents of chestnut blight, Dutch elm disease, and Sudden Oak Death, respectively, are amply documented (1,6,42). An estimate of annual losses for exotic plant pathogens is

Climate Suitability for Magnaporthe oryzae Triticum Pathotype in the United States

21 billion dollars (32). The Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) (Sidebar 1) division within the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has the goal of safeguarding agriculture and natural resources from the risks associated with the entry, establishment, and spread of exotic pathogens. Two important components of the APHIS-PPQ mission are risk analysis and pest detection. A key goal of the risk analysis program is to identify exotic pest pathways and to assess the risks these exotic pests pose to plants and plant products as well as to the environment. Three types of risk assessments that evaluate the probability of the introduction and establishment of exotic plant pests are pathway analysis, organism pest risk assessment, and commodity risk assessment. The PPQ pest detection program and its state cooperators provide a continuum of pest surveillance, from offshore preclearance programs through port inspections, to surveys in rural and urban sites across the United States. The Center for Plant Health Science and Technology (CPHST) and the Cooperative Agricultural Pest Survey (CAPS) programs are instrumental in APHIS-PPQ’s pest detection programs. CAPS is responsible for supplying a means of detection, documentation, and rapid dissemination of information regarding the survey of regulated significant plant pests and weeds in the United States. The survey information gathered by CAPS is entered into a central database known as National Agricultural Pest Information System (NAPIS). CPHST, headquartered in Raleigh, NC, is a multi-program scientific support organization for PPQ. One way CPHST scientists help facilitate the APHIS-PPQ activities of risk analysis and pest detection is by mapping the potential introduction and establishment of exotic pathogens in the United States. These maps are the result of pathogen-specific information analyses, including climate, pathogen distribution, host distribution, and trade. Given its influence on pest phenology, reproduction, dispersion, and overwintering survival, climate is a critical component for the geographic assessment of potential pathogen distribution. A large number of climate-based risk mapping systems, such as CLIMEX, BIOCLIM, and GARP, have been used for pest risk analysis (3,10,38,44). Literature typically focuses on the development and/or evaluation of the best modeling techniques (10); however, often the quality of the inputs, including biological parameters, weather

The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Italian Locust, Calliptamus Italicus (Linnaeus) (Orthoptera: Acrididae) in China

Wheat blast, caused by the Triticum pathotype of Magnaporthe oryzae, is an emerging disease considered to be a limiting factor to wheat production in various countries. Given the importance of wheat blast as a high-consequence plant disease, weather-based infection models were used to estimate the probabilities of M. oryzae Triticum establishment and wheat blast outbreaks in the United States. The models identified significant disease risk in some areas. With the threshold levels used, the models predicted that the climate was adequate for maintaining M. oryzae Triticum populations in 40% of winter wheat production areas of the United States. Disease outbreak threshold levels were only reached in 25% of the country. In Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida, the probability of years suitable for outbreaks was greater than 70%. The models generated in this study should provide the foundation for more advanced models in the future, and the results reported could be used to prioritize research efforts regarding the biology of M. oryzae Triticum and the epidemiology of the wheat blast disease.

Effects of mass inoculation on induced oleoresin response in intensively managed loblolly pine

The Italian Locust, Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus) (Orthoptera: Acrididae), is one of the most harmful species to the grasslands in Xinjiang province, China. It attacks a variety of plants in Compositae, Chenopodiaceae and Gramineae. We used CLIMEX and ArcGIS to determine the potential geographical distribution of C. italicus in China under current and future climatic scenarios. Our analysis predicted that under current climatic conditions, C. italicus has a wide potential distribution in areas north of the Yangtze River in China. With the climatic changes, the potential range for C. italicus was projected to expand, and the suitability levels of most areas would increase, especially in areas with optimal climatic conditions. We therefore suggest that surveys should be enhanced in the areas suitable for C. italicus to facilitate early detection and reduce potential damage.