Glenn V. Fuguitt

Residential preferences and population distribution.

Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.

Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988

In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.

Temporal and spatial variation in age-specific net migration in the United States.

As fertility differences in the United States diminish, population redistribution trends are increasingly dependent on migration. This research used newly developed county-level age-specific net migration estimates for the 1990s, supplemented with longitudinal age-specific migration data spanning the prior 40 years, to ascertain whether there are clear longitudinal trends in age-specific net migration and to determine if there is spatial clustering in the migration patterns. The analysis confirmed the continuation into the 1990s of distinct net migration “signature patterns” for most types of counties, although there was temporal variation in the overall volume of migration across the five decades. A spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed large, geographically contiguous regions of net in-migration (in particular, Florida and the Southwest) and geographically contiguous regions of net out-migration (the Great Plains, in particular) that persisted over time. Yet the patterns of spatial concentration and fragmentation over time in these migration data demonstrate the relevance of this “neighborhood” approach to understanding spatiotemporal change in migration.

Monitoring the metropolitanization process

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950–1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950–1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.

Residential preferences, community satisfaction, and the intention to move

This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.

Population trends of nonmetropolitan cities and villages in subregions of the united states

This is a comparison of the 1950-1970 trends in population size of U.S. nonmetropolitan cities and villages among 26 homogeneous subregions. There are wide variations in the proportion of the nonmetropolitan population in incorporated places, and, though this proportion generally increased over the 1950-1970 period, decentralizing tendencies also are evident. There was most often a decline in the differential between the growth rate of incorporated places and of open country over the two decades. The positive association between initial size of place and growth, present in half of the subregions in the 1950s and indicative of population centralization, was found only in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain subregions in the 1960s. There were regionally distinctive differences in all variables considered; most notably, the percent of places growing ranged 50 percentage points over the 26 subregions. The extent of subregional variation revealed by this analysis indicates how differences in physiography, climate, history, and economy continue to be reflected in settlement trends which are obscured when larger regional groupings are used.

Negro-White Occupational Differences in the Absence of Discrimination

A distincion is drawn between racial disadvantages due to discrimination and those based on the unfavorable position occupied by Negroes in the social structure. Although the latter may be derived from early discriminatory acts, the operation of racially neutral, universalistic forces would tend to handicap some groups even if discrimination were to vanish completely. A Markov model is used to project future Negro-white occupational patterns based on current cross-tabulations between fathers and sons occupations and between fathers and sons education and the relationship between education and occupation. A series of crude assumptions is necessary, but it appears that the absence of racial discrimination in the job market would not eliminate racial differences in occupations immediately, since there are broad societal processes operating to the disadvantage of Negroes. Racial differences in occupation would decline sharply after only one generation in which discrimination was absent, although several generations would be necessary before parity was reached.

Elderly Net Migration The New Trend of Nonmetropolitan Population Change

Population redistribution due to migration within the United States favored metropolitan areas until about 1970; nonmetropolitan areas thereafter. This article traces changes which have affected that pattern and the role of the older population over 65 in those changes. The general finding is one of decreasing levels of net migration in metropolitan areas and increasing levels in nonmetropolitan areas across the 1950-1975 period for both age groups. Elderly migrants were the harbingers of the nonmetropolitan turnaround, since for the older age group nonmetropolitan migration rates are positive and exceed metropolitan rates in the 1960s as well as the 1970s.

The impact of migration on the nonmetropolitan population age structure, 1960-1990

In this paper we examine the short-run impact of migration on the age composition of nonmetropolitan areas. Changes in age structure can have important consequences at the local level, and the influence of migration is particularly notable because it is highly age-graded, with different migration patterns found in various types of nonmetropolitan communities. Here we compare the impact of migration on age structures in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas across the last three decades. Within nonmetropolitan areas we also compare counties with colleges, commuting counties, agricultural counties and retirement counties. We conclude that several factors influence the impact of migration on age structure. Impacts will be greater in smaller than in larger population groups, and in areas that specialize in economic functions that impinge on a particular age group. But in general, migration adds young people to metropolitan areas and older people to nonmetropolitan areas. Differential impacts may be lessened in periods, such as 1970–80, when substantial population redistribution was underway. Nevertheless, prior and present fertility and mortality trends, and the cumulative history of migration well exceed the impact of migration on age in any ten-year interval.

Commuting and the rural-urban hierarchy

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure, with particular attention to rural and nonmetropolitan areas. I examined commuting flows between metropolitan central cities, other metropolitan areas, nonmetropolitan places with more than 10,000 people, those with 2500–10000 people, and other rural areas. Despite the deconcentration of population, industry and trade that was especially marked in the 1970s, commuting in 1980 was predominantly toward larger places in the ruralurban hierarchy, and particularly from rural areas and the other metropolitan category to cities. Overall levels of commuting were high, and most were within either nonmetropolitan or metropolitan areas. Smaller nonmetropolitan places particularly had high proportions of both in- and out-commuters. Differences in commuting flows by gender, socioeconomic status and industry were small, but generally in the directions expected on the basis of prior research. The findings reveal a high degree of work-residence interdependence among settlement units in nonmetropolitan America, with social and economic differences in commuting flows representing an important aspect of community structure.