Godfrey Boyle

Global Oil Production: Forecasts and Methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1—quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2—forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecasts time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3—nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Development and Validation of a Computer Model for Assessing Energy Demand and Supply Patterns in the Urban Environment

This paper describes a two year project, funded by the European Union, to develop a methodology for improving energy management in the urban environment, with the aid of a computer model. The methodology was applied to two urban regions: the city of Leicester in UK; and Cerdanyola, part of the Area Metropolitana de Barcelona, in Spain (Boyle, 1994b). The Energy and Environment Research Unit at the Open University carried out the initial model development and applied the model to Leicester, whilst the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona applied the model to Cerdanyola. The model that was developed as part of this project is discussed, with particular emphasis on the modelling process. The paper then goes on to discuss the application of the model to the city of Leicester, and the results obtained from the model describing the energy demand and supply patterns of Leicester for the years 1984 to 1994. A comparison is made between the energy demand and supply patterns of Leicester and the UK for 1990.

Offshore Wind: the Potential to Contribute a Quarter of UK Electricity by 2024

The United Kingdom has very significant wind energy resources. In particular, the winds offshore could supply a major proportion of the nations electricity requirements. Yet current offshore wind construction projects are progressing slowly. Over the next two decades, it is argued that Britain should adopt a much more ambitious programme to install many thousands of megawatts of offshore generating capacity by means of a public-private partnership, following the successful example of the offshore oil and gas industries of the 1970s and 1980s. By 2024, offshore wind could be contributing some 25% of UK electricity.

Non-nuclear sustainable energy futures for Germany and the UK

It is sometimes argued in Britain and elsewhere that nuclear power must be an essential element in the electricity generating mix of large, developed countries if they are to make major cuts in CO2 emissions by mid-century. For example, the UK Prime Minster, Tony Blair, addressing the Labour Party Conference on September 27 2005, urged the nations of the world, in response to the challenge of climate change, ‘to develop together the technology that allows prosperous nations to adapt and emerging ones to grow sustainably; and that means an assessment of all options, including civil nuclear power’.

DREAM-WORLD: A SIMPLE MODEL OF ENERGY-RELATED CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE 20TH AND 21ST CENTURIES

This paper describes “DREAM-World”, a simple model of global carbon emissions using logistic equations to describe the variations, over the period 1900–2100, in world population, GDP per capita, energy intensity and carbon intensity. The resulting simulations of historical and projected future carbon emissions are in reasonably good agreement with both the historical emissions data and with three published future emission scenarios, chosen to reflect a wide range of possibilities. The use of logistic equations highlights the need to consider when the inflection points in key variables, such as GDP per capita, will occur in future. The modelling exercise also highlights the fact that, because energy intensity cannot in principle reach zero whereas carbon intensity can, energy efficiency improvements can only “buy time” in the carbon abatement process: a shift to carbon-free energy sources is ultimately required – if global economic growth is to continue.

Long-term, Renewables-Intensive World Energy Scenarios

Can renewable energy sources make a major contribution to the world’s growing energy needs, and to reducing atmospheric carbon emissions, during the 21st century? A number of detailed energy scenarios produced in recent years suggest that this is the case, and that it is feasible, technologically and economically, to reduce world atmospheric CO2 emissions by 60-80% by mid-century, in order to avoid dangerous climate change. In most of these scenarios, developed by a variety of respected inter-governmental, governmental and nongovernmental organisations, the rapid deployment of renewables (and in some cases other low- or zero-carbon energy sources), coupled with major improvements in the efficiency of energy use, play a major role in enabling fossil fuel use, with its associated carbon emissions, to be largely phased-out by the end of the 21st century.