Gokhan Ozertan

Dynamics of Price Transmission in the Presence of a Major Food Safety Shock: Impact of H5N1 Avian Influenza on the Turkish Poultry Sector

This article addresses the dynamic impact of the 2005 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak on the Turkish poultry sector. Contemporary time-series analyses with historical decomposition graphs are used to address differences in monthly price adjustments between market levels along the Turkish poultry supply channel. The empirical results show that price adjustments are asymmetric with respect to both speed and magnitude along the marketing channel. Results also reveal a differential impact of the exogenous shock on producers and retailers. The findings have critical efficiency and equity implications for the supply-chain participants.

GM cotton and its possible contributions to environmental sustainability and rural development in Turkey

Cotton farming in Turkey faces economic, environmental and socioeconomic challenges. Organic cotton has been a successful response that greatly benefited low-input farmers; but, worldwide, it will eventually become a mature niche market with limited growth potential. Since no Genetically Modified (GM) varieties have been approved so far in Turkey, we want to find out how the potential adoption of GM cotton by input-intensive producers could contribute to economic, social and environmental improvements. When experiences with GM cotton in other countries are applied to the Turkish context, GM cotton is likely to encounter the highest adoption rates in regions that already face significant pest infestation rates. It may eventually mprove the economic and environmental situation in these regions and in the rapidly expanding and increasingly input-intensive cotton growing area of Southeastern Anatolia. To ensure its long-term sustainability Turkey needs to pass an enforceable biosafety law and invest in homegrown agricultural biotechnology research.

Dynamics Between Turkish and International Cotton Prices

This study examines cotton prices in Turkey and how they relate to international prices. Given that Turkey imports 60 percent of its cotton from the United States, we use time-series techniques to investigate both short-run and long-run relationships between the Turkish (Ege), Memphis, and Liverpool A-index price series. We find, first, that the law of one price holds for both Ege-Memphis and Ege-Liverpool A-index comparisons. Second, there is no indication of price asymmetry between the Ege and international prices. Third, there is evidence for a bidirectional Granger causality relationship for both Ege-Memphis and Ege-A-index. The results are important for determining whether commodity markets are well integrated and adjust rapidly to price shifts, how prices in different countries adjust to shocks, how information flow patterns can be characterized among different markets, and how Turkey adjusts its prices in response to deviations in exporting countries, especially the United States.