Goldie Shabad

Inter-Party Mobility among Parliamentary Candidates in Post-Communist East Central Europe

The development of stable partisan commitments among political elites is crucial for party-system institutionalization in the new democracies of post-communist Europe. Little is known, however, about the partisan behavior of those who compete for national office. This study begins to fill this gap through an analysis of inter-party mobility among all candidates who ran for the lower house of parliament in two pairs of consecutive elections in Poland (1991–3 and 1993–7) and in three pairs of consecutive elections in the Czech Republic (1990–2, 1992–6 and 1996–8). We consider the overall extent of inter-party mobility, structural versus voluntary components of mobility, patterns of movement between types of parties and electoral payoffs of stable and shifting partisan affiliations. Although the overall rate of party-switching has declined substantially in the Czech Republic but not in Poland, changes in other characteristics of inter-party mobility indicate that party-system institutionalization is taking place in both countries.

Electoral Control in New Democracies: The Perverse Incentives of Fluid Party Systems

How do fiuid party systems that exist in many new democracies affect democratic accountability? To address this question, the authors analyze a new database of all legislative incumbents and all competitive elections that took place in Poland since 1991. They find that when district-level economic outcomes are bad, voters in that country punish legislators from a governing party and reward legislators from an opposition party. As a result, electoral control in Poland works through political parties just as it does in mature democracies. However, the authors also find that, in contrast to mature democracies, legislators from a governing party tend to switch to an opposition party when the economy in their district deteriorates. When they do so, their chances of reelection are better than those of politicians who remained loyal to governing parties and are no worse than those of incumbents who ran as opposition party loyalists. These empirical results suggest that while elections in new democracies function as a mechanism of political control, fiuid party systems undermine the extent to which elections promote democratic accountability.

Dynamics of support for European integration in post‐communist Poland

. This study examines the dynamics of citizen support for European integration in Poland. Using data from 1995 and 1998 surveys and from a three-wave panel study, we find that, as in Western Europe, both utilitarian calculations of self-interest and political considerations are equally important determinants of support for membership in the European Union. Moreover, between 1995 and 1998 there was considerable polarization of opinion along economic, partisan and ideological lines. We also consider the impact of pro-democratic and pro-capitalist values on support for integration. Our results show that, all things being equal, such values are significant predictors of European Union support. In addition, they have a strong impact on individual-level stability and change in attitudes toward Poland joining the European Union.

The Emergence of Career Politicians in Post‐Communist Democracies: Poland and the Czech Republic

: Despite party system fluidity and high rates of electoral volatility in the first decade after the transition to democracy in Poland and the Czech Republic, career politicians are emerging. Using data on all parliamentary candidates in the last election before the fall of communism and in all elections since then, we show that, in both countries, parliamentary carryover rates have risen substantially, a growing number of incumbents are seeking reelection, and an increasing proportion of candidates for legislative office have competed in previous parliamentary elections. Moreover, we demonstrate that prior political experience has a persistent and positive effect on winning office. We argue that the rise of career politicians facilitates the consolidation and effectiveness of these new democracies.

When Push Comes to Shove: An Explanation of the Dissolution of the Czechoslovak State

Why did Czechoslovakia break up peacefully into the Czech and Slovak republics on January 1, 1993? Despite the fact that clear majorities of both ethnic populations favored living in some kind of c...