Gonzalo J. Varela

Determinants of Market Integration and Price Transmission in Indonesia

This paper investigates the determinants of price differences and market integration among Indonesian provinces using data from retail cooking oil, rice, and sugar markets during the period 1993–2007; and wholesale maize and soybean markets during the period 1992–2006. We measure the degree of integration across provinces using cointegration techniques and calculate average price differences and use regression analysis to understand the drivers of price differences and market integration. For rice and sugar, we find wide market integration and low price differences in the range of 5–12 per cent. For maize, soybeans, and cooking oil, we find less integration and higher price differences (16–22 per cent). Integration across provinces is explained by the remoteness and quality of transport infrastructure of a province. Price differences across provinces respond to variations in provincial characteristics, such as remoteness; transport infrastructure; output of the commodity; land productivity; and income per capita.

Travel Channel Meets Discovery Channel or How Tourism Can Encourage Better Export Performance and Diversification in Nepal

Entering and surviving in export markets is a costly process that involves learning about the existence of foreign demand, ‘discovering’ production costs, building up reputation, succeeding in product branding to reduce competitive pressures and to upgrade quality to serve demanding international clients, and remaining competitive in the marketplace. This article argues that tourism alleviates some of these costs by providing an inexpensive platform for cost discovery and by acting as an accessible ‘in-house’ trade fair for domestic producers. It combines product-level data on world and Nepal’s exports with Nepalese data on tourist inflows, and macro-indicators on relative prices. For tourism-related goods, it reveals a positive association between tourist inflows from given destinations with future merchandise exports to those destinations, while no association is found for goods unrelated to tourism. The results suggest spillovers from tourism into merchandise export performance and diversification and gains from cooperation between tourism and export promotion.

Agglomeration and Manufacturing Activities in Indonesia

The importance of the agglomeration process in facilitating growth and productivity increases in Indonesias manufacturing sector cannot be ignored. The agglomeration process is associated with improved productivity as firms enjoy external benefits from either urbanization or from the sharing of inputs available in certain locations. Evidence suggests that Java remains the main corridor for manufacturing activities, with large cities attracting manufacturers that are looking for externalities from urbanization. However, there are signs that some firms are shifting to new locations in other cities and forming new agglomerations in areas that these firms find more favorable. With regional autonomy, issues relating to local governance, infrastructure, and uncertainties in local regulations are increasingly important and can undermine the process of agglomeration. Some programs promoting certain locations as special economic zones (SEZs) are experiencing difficulties in attracting manufacturing investors. Understanding these challenges should help policymakers to strengthen the underlying factors that facilitate manufacturing agglomeration.

All These Worlds are Yours, Except India: The Effectiveness of Export Subsidies in Nepal

This paper evaluates the effect on firm-level export outcomes of the Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports program provided by the Government of Nepal. The analysis utilizes customs-level data for 2011-14, combined with information on the subsidy payments made to individual firms provided by the Central Bank of Nepal. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports cash subsidy is available to firms exporting a select group of products, and requires firms to export to countries other than India. Overall, the subsidy has not produced a significant impact on firm-level export values, prices, quantities, or their growth rates. However, the study finds a small positive effect on the number of eligible products exported to countries other than India and the number of destination markets reached among firms that receive the subsidy. These results are consistent with the fact that the subsidy was granted primarily to large exporters that were already shipping eligible products to countries other than India. The findings suggest that although the cash subsidy has not produced a significant increase in exports, it has achieved a positive impact on export diversification for firms that were already satisfying the schemes eligibility criteria.

Market Integration and Poverty: Evidence from South Sudan

This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity.

Asymmetric Price Transmission in Indonesia’s Wheat Flour Market

Data indicate that its domestic price in Indonesia has been increasing regardless of movements in the international price of wheat. A test for asymmetric price transmission from international wheat to domestic wheat flour markets is conducted using an error correction model and find the presence of asymmetric price transmission. The upward adjustment in the domestic price of wheat flour is much faster than its adjustment downward when it deviates from long-run equilibrium. Our results are robust to use of disaggregated data as well as to inclusion of additional of control variables such as prices of other inputs. We argue that asymmetric transmission occurs due to market concentration of wheat flour milling. We offer some policy suggestions for correcting these.

Export Diversification in Twelve European and Central Asian Countries and the Role of the Commodity Boom

This paper examines export diversification along the product and market dimensions for selected countries in the Europe and Central Asia region and, more generally, export performance. While the latter is extraordinary, with average export growth rates above 10 percent, the evidence on diversification is less impressive, and hints at a role played by the interaction of natural resource abundance and the commodity price boom. A cross-country analysis including 171 economies suggests that the regions resource rich countries are less diversified than would be expected given their resource endowments, level of development, and size. The commodity boom period was associated with an increase in concentration for the resource rich along the product dimension: they did not increase the number of products exported and became more reliant on oil and gas. During the same period, the resource poor increased their export product scope while maintaining other concentration indices unchanged. A similar but milder pattern is found for diversification along the destination dimension.

Incomplete, Slow, and Asymmetric Price Transmission in Ten Product Markets of Bolivia

With food prices on the rise, understanding the transmission of price shocks, both internationally and domestically, is central for trade policy analysis. This paper examines spatial market integration and its determinants for ten key food products in Bolivia, across the four most important cities, and with the world, over the period 1991-2008. Within Bolivia, markets for onions, chicken, sugar, and to a lower extent for potatoes, cooking oil, wheat flour, and rice are integrated. However, only chicken, sugar, cooking oil, and rice are integrated with world markets, with incomplete and slow transmission. The perennial result of asymmetric price adjustment to foreign shocks also holds for Bolivia: domestic prices respond faster when the world price increases than when it decreases. This points to a perennial recommendation: the importance of stimulating competitive practices to avoid welfare redistribution due to imperfect competition. Infrastructure improvements will also contribute to accessible food prices for the poor.