Göran Lönnberg

Gender differences and temporal variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes: results of 8012 cases in the nationwide Diabetes Incidence Study in Sweden 1983-2002.

Objectives.  To establish the gender difference amongst newly diagnosed type 1 diabetic patients aged 15–34 years, considering age at diagnosis, temporal trend and seasonal variation at time of diagnosis.

Difference in Celiac Disease Risk Between Swedish Birth Cohorts Suggests an Opportunity for Primary Prevention

OBJECTIVES. Sweden experienced a unique epidemic of celiac disease in children <2 years of age. The epidemic was partly explained by changes in infant feeding over time and indicated a multifactorial pathogenesis. The main aim of this study was to analyze celiac disease risk in epidemic and postepidemic birth cohorts up to preschool age, to explore further the opportunity for primary prevention. METHODS. A population-based incidence register of celiac disease in children covering the entire nation from 1998 to 2003 and part of the country back to 1973 was analyzed. European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition diagnostic criteria for celiac disease were used. The annual incidence rate for each age group and the cumulative incidence according to age for each birth cohort were calculated. RESULTS. A considerable difference in cumulative incidences of celiac disease at comparable ages was demonstrated between birth cohorts from the epidemic and postepidemic periods. The difference persisted during the preschool years, although it decreased somewhat with age. During the last years of the follow-up period, there was again a successive increase in incidence rate among children <2 years of age. CONCLUSIONS. The difference in celiac disease risk between birth cohorts at comparable ages suggests an opportunity for primary prevention. This highlights the importance of further exploring the role of infant feeding and exogenous factors besides dietary gluten that might initiate or prevent disease development. Moreover, on the basis of postepidemic incidence trends, we speculate that the Swedish epidemic might not have been as unique as thought previously, although its magnitude was striking.

Community participation and sustainability - evidence over 25 years in the Västerbotten Intervention Programme

BACKGROUND Selection bias and declining participation rates are of concern in many long-term epidemiological studies. The Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) was launched in 1985 as a response to alarming reports on elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Västerbotten County in Northern Sweden. The VIP invites women and men to a health examination and health counselling during the year of their 40th, 50th, and 60th birthdays. OBJECTIVE To evaluate trends in participation rates and determinants of participation in the VIP from 1990 to 2006. DESIGN Registry data on socio-economic status from Statistics Sweden, and mortality and hospitalisation data from the National Board of Health and Welfare, both covering the whole Swedish population, were linked to the VIP and analysed for participants and non-participants. RESULTS During 1990-2006, 117,710 individuals were eligible to participate in the VIP, and 40,472 of them were eligible to participate twice. There were 96,560 observations for participants and 61,622 for non-participants. The overall participation rate increased from 56 to 65%. Participants and non-participants had minimal differences in education and age. Initial small differences by sex and degree of urban residence decreased over time. Despite an increasing participation rate in all groups, those with low income or who were single had an approximately 10% lower participation rate than those with high or medium-income or who were married or cohabitating. CONCLUSION Sustainability of the VIP is based on organisational integration into primary health care services and targeting of the entire middle-aged population. This enables the programme to meet population expectations of health promotion and to identify high-risk individuals who are then entered into routine preventive health care services. This has the potential to increase participation rates, to minimise social selection bias, and to reinforce other community-based interventions.Background : Selection bias and declining participation rates are of concern in many long-term epidemiological studies. The Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) was launched in 1985 as a response to alarming reports on elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in Västerbotten County in Northern Sweden. The VIP invites women and men to a health examination and health counselling during the year of their 40th, 50th, and 60th birthdays. Objective : To evaluate trends in participation rates and determinants of participation in the VIP from 1990 to 2006. Design : Registry data on socio-economic status from Statistics Sweden, and mortality and hospitalisation data from the National Board of Health and Welfare, both covering the whole Swedish population, were linked to the VIP and analysed for participants and non-participants. Results : During 1990–2006, 117,710 individuals were eligible to participate in the VIP, and 40,472 of them were eligible to participate twice. There were 96,560 observations for participants and 61,622 for non-participants. The overall participation rate increased from 56 to 65%. Participants and non-participants had minimal differences in education and age. Initial small differences by sex and degree of urban residence decreased over time. Despite an increasing participation rate in all groups, those with low income or who were single had an approximately 10% lower participation rate than those with high or medium-income or who were married or cohabitating. Conclusion : Sustainability of the VIP is based on organisational integration into primary health care services and targeting of the entire middle-aged population. This enables the programme to meet population expectations of health promotion and to identify high-risk individuals who are then entered into routine preventive health care services. This has the potential to increase participation rates, to minimise social selection bias, and to reinforce other community-based interventions.

Self-rated health does not predict 10-year weight change among middle-aged adults in a longitudinal population study

BackgroundThere is a worldwide obesity epidemic, but lack of a simple method, applicable for research or clinical use, to identify individuals at high risk of weight gain. Therefore, the relationship of self-rated health and 10-year percent weight change was evaluated to determine if self-rated health would predict weight change.MethodsFrom 1990 to 2008, adults aged 30, 40, 50 and 60 years were invited to health surveys that included self-rated health and measured weight and height. ANOVA was used to evaluate the relationship of 10-year percent weight change and self-rated health.ResultsThe study population consisted of 29,207 participants (46.5% men). There was no relationship between baseline self-rated health and 10-year percent weight change for middle-aged men or women.ConclusionsSelf-rated health is not able to predict weight change over a 10-year period in this age group.

Impact of a combined community and primary care prevention strategy on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: a cohort analysis based on 1 million person-years of follow-up in Västerbotten County, Sweden, during 1990–2006

Objective To evaluate the impact of the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) by comparing all eligible individuals (target group impact) according to the intention-to-treat principle and VIP participants with the general Swedish population. Design Dynamic cohort study. Setting/participants All individuals aged 40, 50 or 60 years, residing in Västerbotten County, Sweden, between 1990 and 2006 (N=101 918) were followed from their first opportunity to participate in the VIP until age 75, study end point or prior death. Intervention The VIP is a systematic, long-term, county-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) intervention that is performed within the primary healthcare setting and combines individual and population approaches. The core component is a health dialogue based on a physical examination and a comprehensive questionnaire at the ages of 40, 50 and 60 years. Primary outcomes All-cause and CVD mortality. Results For the target group, there were 5646 deaths observed over 1 054 607 person-years. Compared to Sweden at large, the standardised all-cause mortality ratio was 90.6% (95% CI 88.2% to 93.0%): for women 87.9% (95% CI 84.1% to 91.7%) and for men 92.2% (95% CI 89.2% to 95.3%). For CVD, the ratio was 95.0% (95% CI 90.7% to 99.4%): for women 90.4% (95% CI 82.6% to 98.7%) and for men 96.8% (95% CI 91.7 to 102.0). For participants, subject to further impact as well as selection, when compared to Sweden at large, the standardised all-cause mortality ratio was 66.3% (95% CI 63.7% to 69.0%), whereas the CVD ratio was 68.9% (95% CI 64.2% to 73.9%). For the target group as well as for the participants, standardised mortality ratios for all-cause mortality were reduced within all educational strata. Conclusions The study suggests that the VIP model of CVD prevention is able to impact on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when evaluated according to the intention-to-treat principle.

Fewer deaths from cardiovascular disease than expected from the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation chart in a Swedish population

Introduction Numerous equations to predict cardiovascular risk have been developed, but they differ in their ability to identify high-risk groups. In particular, concerns have been expressed that the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) equation may overestimate the risk of fatal myocardial infarction and stroke in certain European populations. Methods The SCORE guidelines were applied to a sample of 10 476 male and 11 874 female participants from the Vasterbotten Intervention Program (VIP) of northern Sweden who were screened between 1990 and 1994, at the age of 40, 50, or 60 years, and followed up for at least 10 years or until death. Results The cohort experienced a total of 229 fatal cardiovascular events, 169 for men and 60 for women, during the course of follow-up, whereas 359 (266 for men and 93 for women) were predicted through application of the Swedish SCORE risk chart. Conclusion Application of the SCORE guidelines resulted in substantial overestimation of the expected number of deaths from cardiovascular disease in a population from northern Sweden.

From efficacy in trials to effectiveness in clinical practice: The Swedish Stroke Prevention Study

Abstract Blood pressure treatment has shown great efficacy in reducing cardiovascular events in randomized controlled trials. If this is effective in reducing cardiovascular disease in the general population, is less studied. Between 2001 and 2009 we performed an intervention to improve blood pressure control in the county of Västerbotten, using Södermanland County as a control. The intervention was directed towards primary care physicians and included lectures on blood pressure treatment, a computerized decision support system with treatment recommendations, and yearly feed back on hypertension control. Each county had approximately 255 000 inhabitants. Differences in age and incidence of cardiovascular disease were small. During follow-up, more than 400 000 patients had their blood pressure recorded. The mean number of measurements was eight per patient, yielding a total of 3.4 million blood pressure recordings. The effect of the intervention will be estimated combining the blood pressure data collected from the electronic medical records, with data on stroke, myocardial infarction and mortality from Swedish health registers. Additional variables, from health registers and Statistics Sweden, will be collected to address for confounders. The blood pressure data collected within this study will be an important asset for future epidemiological studies within the field of hypertension.