Gordon A. King

Optimum Location, Number and Size of Processing Plants with Raw Product and Final Product Shipments

The transhipment model of linear programming is utilized in this study to consider simultaneously the costs of shipping raw materials, processing, and shipping final product. The problem concerns the location and size of California cattle slaughtering plants given the location and quantity of slaughter animals and the final product demand. An iterative procedure is used to incorporate economies of scale in processing in addition to transfer costs in obtaining the minimum cost solution. Thirty-two regions in California plus two regions each for out-of-state animals and dressed beef shipments are considered. Slaughtering is indicated for 12 in-state regions with plants of varying scale, a solution which indicates the importance of assembly and distribution costs as well as economies of scale in processing in determining the optimum size of plant.

Planting and Removal Relationships for Perennial Crops: An Application to Cling Peaches

Supply response for a perennial crop is influenced by the age composition of existing plant stocks which, in turn, is determined by historical patterns of plantings and removals. This paper develops estimates of functions that relate the planting and removal of cling peach trees to measures of past profitability, potential future production from existing acreage, and structural changes associated with market intervention programs. The analysis also provides indications of useful forms for these functions, patterns of yield variation by age of tree, and the nonlinear relation of removal response to age of tree.

Effects of Energy Cost Increases and Regional Allocation Policies on Agricultural Production

Some of the impacts of energy cost increases and reduced supplies on the product mix of annual field crops and vegetables in California are analyzed. A quadratic programming model including risk is used to evaluate the effects of increased energy costs and reductions in fertilizer and in fuel supplies. The model includes a demand matrix of some nine field crops and twenty-eight seasonal vegetables. The study also considers the relative impact of energy changes on producer and consumer welfare. Results suggest continued viability of vegetable production but differential consumer and producer impacts associated with energy changes.

Regional Location of Beef Cattle Feeding

INEAR programming methods for solution of point-trading spatial equilibrium models have provided an important tool for analysis of regional adjustments to changing economic conditions. Studies to date generally have been concerned with equilibrium product shipments and product prices. Increased flexibility in the possible types of analyses recently has been provided by a programming formulation of a general equilibrium model for both product and factor shipments and prices.2 This development has proved particularly helpful in the quantification of this model concerned with the location of beef cattle feeding facilities. Although the entire analysis is not completed, the method used appears to be of sufficient general applicability and interest to warrant presentation at this time of the preliminary findings and the approach employed. Feedlot finishing of beef cattle basically involves three major variable inputs: feeder cattle, feed concentrates, and hay or other roughages. These factors can be shipped among various regions of the country. Similarly, slaughter cattle or meat can be shipped to meet regional levels of demand for beef. The problem is to determine that regional organization of cattle feeding, factor and product shipments, and beef prices that would result from perfectly competitive behavior. This organization would provide a basis for appraising efficiency of the current location of feeding, and for determining probable direction of regional adjustments to changes in such factors as regional level of demand for feedlot finished beef. A spatial equilibrium analysis of this nature requires specification of three types of functional relationships; namely, demand functions, transfer functions for product and factors, and supply functions for the production of feedlot finished beef. In this study, the demand function is

Response Time and the Location of Emergency Medical Facilities in Rural Areas: A Case Study

A framework to analyze the delivery of emergency medical care in northern California is proposed. Using a branch and bound algorithm, the most efficient (least-cost) size, number, and location of emergency medical facilities is found subject to a given level of demand and a measure of effectiveness (response time). The current spatial pattern of emergency medical service (EMS) facilities is compared with the most efficient spatial pattern. Due to the sparse distribution of the study area population, some individual EMS facilities are not economically viable given the current revenue structure. Funding alternatives for EMS, including volunteer service, are discussed.

Discussion: Predicting Short-Run Aggregate Adjustment to Policy Alternatives

Plans also call for including livestock in our system of analysis. One possibility is to develop a U.S. statistical model for livestock that can be interfaced with the national model. That is, important feed-livestock relationships might be captured, through an iterative procedure, rather than treated exogenously in each of the two models. To summarize, we believe that a systems approach to policy research is an efficient way to use the research resources at our disposal. The foundation of the Aggregate Production Analysis System rests on good data and good researchers. The building blocks are various formal and informal models. One general model cannot do the job. The cornerstone is flexibility-flexibility to adjust to the changing policy needs. APAS is a step in this direction.