Gordon D. Richardson

An Information Interpretation of Financial Analyst Superiority in Forecasting Earnings

This paper develops and tests an information-based model for conditions under which analysts earnings forecasts are likely to be more accurate than forecasts of time-series models. Three information variables are considered, namely the dimensionality of the information set, the precision of the information items, and the correlation amongst the information items. The respective proxy variables for the information variables are firm size, extent of agreement amongst analysts, and the number of lines of business the firm operates in. Evidence is provided that analysts are likely to be more accurate than time series models for larger firms and for firms whereby analysts have more homogeneous earnings forecasts.

A test of dividend irrelevance using volume reactions to a change in dividend policy

Abstract We investigate the implication of clientele theories that changes in dividend policy should result in a marked increase in trading volume as shareholder clienteles change. With 192 firms announcing their first cash dividend we document both an increase in trading volume and firm value around the announcement date. We integrate these results to distinguish between the volume response to good news about the future and clientele adjustments to a change in dividend policy. Our results suggest that volume increases primarily in response to the signal about future earnings contained in the dividend. Clientele adjustments are small.

The Association between Insider Trading and Information Announcements

Prior knowledge of certain public information events can lead to abnormal returns on securities. Insiders generally have access to information before the public. Several studies have shown that abnormal returns are earned by portfolios which are constructed on the basis of the trading behavior of corporate insiders. We test whether this demonstrably profitable trading is associated with the public release of information about earnings, dividends, bond ratings, mergers, and bankruptcies. The results are weakly consistent with some use of private information, but most insider trading appears to be unrelated to these information events.

Capital-Market Effects Of United-States Canada Gaap Differences

Canadian firms that list securities on U.S. stock exchanges are generally required to provide a reconciliation of reported income measured using Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) to reported earnings measured using U.S. GAAP. This paper examines both the magnitudes and the information content of the reported reconciliations between CanadianGAAP income and U.S.GAAP income. Two recent studies of cross-country GAAP differences do not address U.S.-Canada differences because of perceived similarities between GAAP in the two countries (Amir, Harris, and Venuti [1993] and McQueen [1993]). If U.S.-Canada GAAP differences are in fact unimportant, then no further examination is warranted. Professional bodies, however, are

Are Securitizations in Substance Sales or Secured Borrowings? Capital‐Market Evidence*

Two standard†setting approaches have emerged globally to guide the choice of accounting for securitizations: the control and components approach (SFAS No. 125 and SFAS No. 140) and the risks and rewards transfer approach (IAS No. 39). A lack of consensus about derecognition accounting is a major impediment to achieving convergence in global standards that must be resolved. Thus, both SFAS No. 140 and IAS No. 39 will be reexamined, and evidence pertinent to the debate is timely and important. In this study, we present evidence consistent with the view of credit†rating analysts, who view many securitizations as, in substance, secured borrowings. Specifically, for a sample of originators applying sale accounting guidance in SFAS No. 125 / 140 during the period 1997†2003, we show that off†balance†sheet debt related to securitizations has, on average, the same risk†relevance for explaining market measures of risk (that is, CAPM beta) as on†balance†sheet debt. We also find that, in a returns and earnings association framework, the pricing multiple on securitization gains declines as the amount of off†balance†sheet debt increases, implying that investors take off†balance†sheet debt into account when assessing the valuation†relevance of such gains. For those who advocate the control and components approach to securitization accounting, our results suggest that, at least for frequent securitizers, the put option arising from implicit recourse is a “missing piece†that is not currently accounted for when calculating securitization gains. Our results challenge the extant measurement standards in SFAS No. 140.

The Relevance of Environmental Disclosures for Investors and Other Stakeholder Groups: Are Such Disclosures Incrementally Informative?

This study examines the impact of voluntary environmental disclosure on the cost of equity capital and firm value, and on the public perception about a firm’s environmental performance. A salient feature of the study is that our analysis controls for corporate environmental performance using actual toxic emissions data and for firms’ general disclosure propensity. We measure voluntary environmental disclosures in standalone environmental reports, CSR reports, and corporate web sites using a disclosure index consistent with the Global Reporting Initiative disclosure framework. Using a sample of firms from the five most polluting industries in the U.S., we find that voluntary environmental disclosures are incrementally informative for investors over current toxic emissions data in our firm valuation analyses. We also find that investors appear to use toxic emissions data to assess the firm risks and unbooked future environmental liabilities. In addition, we find that voluntary environmental disclosure is positively associated with the Janis-Fadner coefficient, consistent with voluntary environmental disclosure enhancing non-investor stakeholder perception about firms’ environmental performance. However, we do not find evidence that voluntary environmental disclosures affects firm’s cost of equity capital.

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act and Exit Strategies of Private Firms

The costs and benefits of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) have been oft-debated since the inception of the Act. Much of the extant literature has assessed the costs and benefits of SOX to publicly-traded companies. We focus on the costs of SOX compliance for private firms wanting to exit the private market via either an acquisition by a public firm or an IPO. Consistent with our predictions we establish three principal findings. First, SOX appears to have shifted the incentive for firms to exit the private market via IPO to exit via acquisition by a public acquirer. Second, private target deal multiples are increasing in variables that proxy for a private target’s level of pre-acquisition SOX compliance. For our median-sized private target, the estimated dollar value decrease in deal proceeds when one moves from a high level to a low level of pre-acquisition SOX compliance is

Revisiting the Relation Between Environmental Performance and Environmental Disclosure: An Empirical Analysis

1.3 million. Finally, public target deal multiples are not affected by a public target’s level of pre-acquisition SOX compliance. These findings suggest that SOX-related costs have both restricted the action space of possible exit strategies for private firms and led to lower deal multiples for those private acquisition targets that are less likely to be SOX compliant prior to acquisition. We believe that the implications from our tests will be relevant to regulators in the U.S. and many countries outside the U.S. that are attempting to improve their country’s governance and listing standards and potentially seeking alternatives to SOX-like standards, especially with respect to internal controls. International regulators need to assess the total costs of SOX, including costs imposed on private company shareholders, when contemplating the net benefits of SOX-like regimes.