Gordon M. Bodnar

Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA

Abstract This paper examines industry-level exchange rate exposures for Canada, Japan, and the USA. Measuring exposure by adding the change in the exchange rate to the domestic market model of industry portfolio returns, some industries in all three countries display significant exposures. Moreover, for each country, the exchange rate is important for explaining industry returns at the economy-wide level. To explore whether exchange rate exposures are systematically linked to the activities of the industries, we model exposure as a function of industry characteristics. For all three countries, the relation between exposure and industry characteristics is broadly consistent with economic theory. (JEL F3)

1998 Wharton Survey of Financial Risk Management by US Non-Financial Firms

This is the third in a series of surveys on financial risk management practice and derivatives use by non-financial corporations in the United States undertaken by the Wharton School. This 1998 survey, written in partnership again with CIBC World Markets, extends the previous two surveys by asking new questions about certain aspects of derivative use and risk management practice. This report compares responses across the various surveys and notes changes in responses over time. A tabulation of the responses to all questions is included in the appendix.

1995 Wharton Survey of Derivatives Usage by US Non-Financial Firms

In November, 1994, the Weiss Center for International Financial Research of the Wharton School undertook its first survey of derivatives and risk management practice by non-financial corporations in the United States. This 1995 survey, sponsored by CIBC Wood Gundy, is more detailed than the 1994 survey, with a broader range of questions about valuation and risk management and with more specific questions about the use of derivatives. One of the primary objectives of the survey is the development of a database on risk management practices suitable for academic research.

Estimating Exchange Rate Exposures: Issues in Model Structure

We show that both return measurement horizon and model specification have noticeable impacts on estimates of exposure from equity prices for U.S. firms. While increases in the return horizon leads to increases in the precision of the estimates, this effect is less significant than the impact of model structure. We demonstrate that the inclusion and of a market return variable and its particular construction has a dramatic influence on the sign and size of the exposures due to a strong relation between firm size and exposure for U.S. firms. We propose using CRSP cap-based portfolios as the control for market factors and show that this produces exposures with stronger relation to foreign cash flows and correlations with firm size.

Exchange Rate Variability and the Riskiness of U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from the Breakdown of the Bretton Woods System

This study assesses the impact of exchange rate variability on the riskiness of U.S. multinational firms by examining the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange rates, we find a significant increase in the volatility of U.S. multinational monthly stock returns corresponding to the period of increased exchange rate variability. This increase in stock return volatility is also significant relative to the increase in stock return volatility for firms in three control samples. Using a single factor market model, we show this increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the control samples between the two periods. Collectively, these results suggest that the increase in exchange rate variability after 1973 was perceived by investors to be associated with an increase in the riskiness of cash flows of multinational firms that required compensation in terms of higher expected returns.

Crossing the Lines: The Conditional Relation between Exchange Rate Exposure and Stock Returns in Emerging and Developed Markets

This paper examines the importance of exchange rate exposure in the return generating process for a large sample of non-financial firms from 37 countries. We argue that the effect of exchange rate exposure on stock returns is conditional and show evidence of a significant return impact to firm-level currency exposures when conditioning on the exchange rate change. We further show that the realized return to exposure is directly related to the size and sign of the exchange rate change, suggesting fluctuations in exchange rates as a source of time-variation in currency return premia. For the entire sample the return impact ranges from 1.2 - 3.3% per unit of currency exposure, and it is larger for firms in emerging markets compared to developed markets. Overall, the results indicate that foreign exchange rate exposure estimates are economically meaningful, despite the fact that individual time-series results are noisy and many exposures are not statistically significant, and that exchange rate exposure plays an important role in generating cross-sectional return variation. Moreover, we show that the relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns is more consistent with a cash flow effect than a discount rate effect.

A Simple Model of Foreign Exchange Exposure

Foreign exchange exposure refers to the sensitivity of a firms cash flows to changes in exchange rates. This study develops a model of foreign exchange exposure dependent on only three variables, the percentage of the firms revenues and expenses denominated in foreign currency and its profit rate. Exposure is estimated for a sample of 103 U.S. firms that participated in the 1998 Wharton/CIBC Survey of Risk Management by U.S. Non-Financial Firms. The study finds that foreign exchange exposure is quite low for a majority of firms in the sample because these firms have been able to match their foreign currency revenues and costs leaving them with little net exposure. Such operational hedges may help to explain why previous studies have found low or negligible levels of exposure when they studied the sensitivity of share prices to foreign exchange rates.

The Value Relevance of Foreign Income: An Australian, Canadian, and British Comparison

In this paper we examine the value relevance of geographical earnings disclosures for firms listed and domiciled in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. We find that foreign earnings in all three countries are valued differently than domestic earnings. The estimate of the association coefficient for foreign earnings changes with returns is positive in all three countries and statistically larger than the association coefficient for domestic earnings changes in Canada and the United Kingdom. Further tests show that this difference is related to relative growth opportunities of overseas operations to domestic operations. These findings are similar to results for foreign earnings association coefficients for American-based multinationals found in Bodnar and Weintrop (1997). These results indicate that across countries the market perceives the results of foreign operations as value relevant and suggests that greater emphasis should be placed on the required disclosure of segmental data rather than on the concern that all countries prepare the segmental information using a common GAAP.

Exchange rate exposure: A simple model

This study develops a model of foreign exchange exposure dependent on only three variables, the percentage of the firms revenues and expenses denominated in foreign currency and its profit rate. The model demonstrates that foreign exchange exposure elasticities should be largest for pure exporting and importing firms, especially those with low profit margins. Exposure elasticities should be smaller for multinational firms that match their foreign currency revenues and costs. Such operational hedges may help to explain why previous studies have found low or negligible levels of exposure when they studied the sensitivity of share prices to foreign exchange rates.

Target Zones and Forward Rates In a Model With Repeated Realignments

This paper studies the implications of the imperfect credibility of an exchange rate target zone on the terra structure of forward premia. The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates of different maturities reflects the possibility of repeated realignments of the exchange rate band. The credibility of the commitment to the target zone implicit in forward market data can be extracted by estimating the model. Application to French/German data indicates that the model is capable of matching observed patterns of interest rate differentials during the EMS, while yielding estimates of the credibility parameters that accord with the experience of the FF/DM exchange rate during the 1980s.