Gordon McBean

AN EARTH-SYSTEM PREDICTION INITIATIVE FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Some scientists have proposed the Earth-System Prediction Initiative (EPI) at the 2007 GEO Summit in Cape Town, South Africa. EPI will draw upon coordination between international programs for Earth system observations, prediction, and warning, such as the WCRP, WWRP, GCOS, and hence contribute to GEO and the GEOSS. It will link with international organizations, such as the International Council for Science (ICSU), Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), UNEP, WMO, and World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed initiative will provide high-resolution climate models that capture the properties of regional high-impact weather events, such as tropical cyclones, heat wave, and sand and dust storms associated within multi-decadal climate projections of climate variability and change. Unprecedented international collaboration and goodwill are necessary for the success of EPI.

Canadian Disaster Management Policy: Moving Toward a Paradigm Shift?

In light of rising disaster losses in recent years and predictions of a more hazardous natural environment in the future, many countries around the world are revising their policies for disaster management to incorporate a stronger emphasis on disaster mitigation and risk reduction. In this paper, we argue that Canada has not sufficientl y integrated mitigation into disaster management and we discuss several barriers that impede progress in this area.

STORM STUDIES IN THE ARCTIC (STAR)

The Storm Studies in the Arctic (STAR) network (2007–2010) conducted a major meteorological field project from 10 October–30 November 2007 and in February 2008, focused on southern Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada—a region that experiences intense autumn and winter storms. The STAR research program is concerned with the documentation, better understanding, and improved prediction of meteorological and related hazards in the Arctic, including their modification by local topography and land–sea ice–ocean transitions, and their effect on local communities. To optimize the applicability of STAR network science, we are also communicating with the user community (northern communities and government sectors). STAR has obtained a variety of surface-based and unique research aircraft field measurements, high-resolution modeling products, and remote sensing measurements (including Cloudsat) as part of its science strategy and has the first arctic Cloudsat validation dataset. In total, 14 research flights were flown b...

Structure of a Frontal System over the Northeast Pacific Ocean

Abstract A frontal system passed over the Storm Transfer and Response Experiment project area on 17 November 1980. As revealed by ship-born rawinsonde, surface, and radar information, this northeast Pacific storm exhibited three components: it linked surface and 500-mb troughs with marked surface windshift and associated confluence and horizontal wind shear, but exhibiting no surface temperature change; a midtropospheric cold katafront; and an upper moisture front that was moving ahead more rapidly than the other components. The upper moisture front was marked by a moisture gradient across the trailing edge of a large cloud region that moved with the winds at 500 mb or higher. Due to the horizontal thermal homogeneity of the marine boundary layer, the confluence associated with the surface trough did not cause low-level cold frontogenesis. High θw values of the upper portion of the frontal system indicate that air was advected from much farther south. Important characteristics of frontal system evolution ...

Integrating local and scientific weather knowledge as a strategy for adaptation to climate change in the Arctic

As the climate warms, stressors are developing that challenge the adaptive capabilities of Arctic peoples. In Nunavut, one of Canada’s Arctic territories, increased weather variability and changes in physical and climatic conditions are having profound effects on residents. One problem is that while these changes have magnified risks associated with travel and land-based activities, individuals lack sufficiently reliable and useful information on which to base decisions. In this paper, we argue that weather-related risk assessment can be improved by integrating local and scientific weather knowledge and making this information accessible to residents through the creation of weather hazards impact advisory groups. We present a qualitative case study of Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, using data from participant observation and semi-structured interviews conducted with indigenous and non-indigenous long-term residents in summer 2009. We examine how long-term residents of Iqaluit acquire, perceive, and use both local and scientific weather knowledge. We find that various barriers, such as a lack of land-based experience, cultural and linguistic differences, and an absence of social networks, prevent most people from obtaining all the information required to make fully informed decisions about the risks associated with land-based activities at different locations. Experienced hunters are perceived to be a reliable source of weather-related information, while scientific weather knowledge is not as accessible or informative as it could be. Increasing the potential use of traditional and scientific hazardous weather knowledge, by making both more universally accessible, can enhance strategies for adapting to climate change in the Arctic.

Risk Mitigation Strategies for Tornadoes in the Context of Climate Change and Development

Mitigation strategies for natural hazards will always be dealing with risk. With climate change bringing a new set of risks, each with its uncertainties, the risk manager has new challenges. Since natural hazards like tornadoes have large impacts and divert resources towards mitigation and recovery, changing natural hazards are a factor affecting development. In this paper, an analysis of tornado risk in Canada in the context of a changing climate is given which leads to the conclusion that risk-management strategies should assume more frequent events in the future.

Determinants of residential vulnerability to flood hazards in Metro Vancouver, Canada

What influences residents’ vulnerability to flood hazards in a Canadian coastal city? This study addresses the question by identifying and testing hypothetical determinants of residential vulnerability to flood hazards in Metro Vancouver. A household survey is conducted in four neighbourhoods in Vancouver and Surrey to test seven determinants: (1) social vulnerability, (2) hazard perception, (3) institutional arrangements, (4) amenity value conflicts, (5) self-protection, (6) attribution of responsibility, and (7) attenuation of risk due to another dominating concern. Survey findings offer insights into how these determinants interact to produce unequal vulnerability to flood hazards among residents in a Canadian city. The study finds that social vulnerability is an important factor in determining overall vulnerability to flood hazards. Household income, as a key contributor to social vulnerability, is found to have significant correlations with variables that define the other determinants. Institutional arrangements, including property insurance and development regulations, appear to interact with social vulnerability and the other determinants to allow powerful groups of people to live in hazardous places without taking on the full associated risk. The findings of the study have implications for our understanding of how vulnerability is produced and how, or whether, local policy can address these factors to equitably reduce risk.

Introduction of a New International Research Program: Integrated Research on Disaster Risk - The Challenge of Natural and Human-Induced Environmental Hazards

Weather-climate and geophysical hazards create many disasters around the world and the impacts have been devastating on many communities and countries. Over the decades there has been significant international scientific response, much of it organized by the International Council for Science (ICSU) and its partners in the United Nations system, especially the World Meteorological Organization and UNESCO. There is also an international policy response. For example, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development and the related Millennium Development Goals and the World Conference on Disaster Reduction, held in Kobe, Hyogo, Japan in 2005, which agreed on the Hyogo Framework for Action. Through the deliberations of an ISCU-sponsored process, a new international research program Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) – the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards – has now been initiated, with the support of ICSU, the International Social Sciences Council and the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. The focus of the research programme is on disaster risk and disaster risk reduction and takes an integrated approach to natural and human-induced environmental hazards through a combination of natural, socio-economic, health and engineering sciences, including socio-economic analysis, understanding the role of communications, and public and political response to reduce the risk. The legacy of IRDR will be an enhanced capacity around the world to address hazards and make informed decisions on actions to reduce their impacts. The IRDR Scientific Objectives are: 1: Characterization of hazards, vulnerability and risk; 2: Understanding decision-making in complex and changing risk contexts; 3: Reducing risk and curbing losses through knowledge-based actions. There are cross-cutting themes and approaches on: Capacity building; Case studies and demonstration projects; and Assessment, data management and monitoring.

Assessing the bio-psychosocial correlates of flood impacts in coastal areas of Lagos, Nigeria

This paper explores the complex heterogeneous experiences of flood impacts based on a bio-psychosocial model of socio-economic, demographic, behavioural and environmental factors. Using ordinary least squares regression on a cross-sectional survey of 1003 individuals, flood impacts in three contiguous coastal neighbourhoods in Lagos, Nigeria, were modelled. The results show that approximately 52% of the variability in flood impact was accounted for by education, age, family structure, ethnicity, personal health concern and income. While involvement in coping was not a significant predictor of flood impacts, relocation emerged as a strong predictor. The inclusion of behavioural factors did not change the magnitude and significance of the relationship between demographic factors and flood impacts. However, the effects of age, education and personal health concern disappeared when environmental factors were controlled. The overall importance of the predictors for determining flood impact in decreasing order is as follows: income > coping strategies > ethnicity = participation in community development > family structure > personal health concerns > housing quality > reasons for living in residential locality > neighbourhood vulnerability to flood > housing vulnerability to flood.

A systems dynamic modelling approach to assessing elements of a weather forecasting system

Abstract The objective of a weather forecasting system is to provide information of maximum benefit to the users. One measure of those benefits is the skill of the forecasting system. Other measures of benefits can be gained through polling and socio‐economic analyses. Assuming the benefits can be quantified, the role of management is to make investments in the weather forecasting system such that the benefits are maximized. The system capacity depends on investments in observing, in telecommunication and computing systems, in research and development, and in people. In order to study a weather forecasting system from this point of view, a system dynamics simulation model has been developed. The model incorporates different factors that contribute to the quality of a forecast and recognizes that a role of management is to divide the budget into relevant activities. The factors include capital investment, meteorological research, numbers of forecasters, and the number of weather observing stations. The system dynamics modelling technique facilitates a dynamic analysis of impacts due to differential investment options. The cases of changes in allocations of funds from specific activities are analyzed. Typical fund management scenarios based on different policy options are also simulated. Illustrative case studies are shown, recognizing the limitations in the model and the available data.