Gordon S. Black

A Theory of Political Ambition: Career Choices and the Role of Structural Incentives

Office-holders periodically face the problem of choosing among a set of career alternatives, and these alternatives customarily include the choice of dropping out of political life, or seeking reelection, or of choosing to seek higher office. This paper assumes that officeholders behave according to a rational calculus in making such choices, and that the main elements involved in the choice process include the probabilities and values attached by the candidate to his alternatives, and the investments required to obtain these alternatives. Political ambition, or the desire to seek higher office, is shown to develop as a product of the investments that politicians make in their political careers, and the investments are shown to be associated with the structural characteristics of community size and electoral competitiveness. The subjects of the research are 435 city councilmen from 89 cities of the San Francisco Bay Region, and the data include information derived from interviews with the councilmen and aggregate election data collected on each city.

Public Opinion and the War in Vietnam

Foreign policy seems to command more public attention than domestic policy and yet—insofar as it has been, researched—public opinion on foreign policy seems to have less impact on governmental decisions than does opinion in most other issue areas. There are at least two reasons, one normative and one empirical, why public opinion can be regarded as pertinent to some foreign policy questions—especially those associated with “life and death.” Normatively, it is desirable for political leaders in a democracy to commit national resources in ways generally approved by the populace. Large scale military commtiments should, if at all possible, meet with the approval of public opinion. Empirically, if they do not, experience has shown there are circumstances in which public disapproval of the course of foreign policy may be registered in national elections. Specifically, our one recent experience with a situation of partial mobilization and a limited but large-scale and indefinite commitment to military action in Korea did in time produce a distribution of opinion that suggested the war was very unpopular. And though its precise impact on the 1952 presidential election is difficult to assess there is little doubt that the Korean issue contributed significantly to the Eisenhower landslide. Among the questions raised by the Korean experience is whether the American public will easily tolerate the prosecution of long drawn-out wars of partial mobilization. Therefore, it is not surprising that another such war, in Vietnam, has stimulated a concern with public opinion.

A Theory of Professionalization in Politics

Professionalization, in customary usage, refers to the assimilation of the standards and values prevalent in a given profession. Every profession, including politics, tends to have some set or sets of values that are widely held and which define what it means to be a “professional” within that field. These values are important because they affect the likelihood that the individual will achieve success in his profession. If the values are widely held, those that deviate from them are likely to be sanctioned by their colleagues, and people who fail to maintain the minimal standards of their profession are not likely to obtain professional advancement. Those who do behave according to the dominant values of their profession, however, are likely to be accorded the status of “professional” in the eyes of their colleagues, and that designation will contribute to the success of their careers. In the profession of politics, as in other professions, there is seldom one set of standards and values that prevails in all places at all times. These normative elements are likely to vary from political system to political system, to vary within a political system, and to vary within the profession of politics over time. In a highly centralized local political organization, for example, the achievement and maintenance of a position is likely to depend upon such values as deference and loyalty to the leaders of the political hierarchy.

Sociodemographic and Attitudinal Correlates of Alcohol and Other Drug Use Among Children and Adolescents: Analysis of a Large-Scale Attitude Tracking Study

Data from the Partnership Attitude Tracking Study are analyzed to provide a greater understanding of the contributing factors to alcohol and other drug use among children and adolescents. The data were collected from children (ages 9 to 12) and teenagers (ages 13 to 17) in central locations (usually shopping malls) located in 100 primary sampling units across the United States. The analysis, which primarily employed stepwise multiple regression for model estimation, reinforced the importance of friends use, perceived risk, and tobacco and alcohol use in predicting marijuana use. An exposure model, which included antidrug advertisements, was a particularly powerful model. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Patient satisfaction surveys and multicollinearity.

The measurement of patient satisfaction is now an integral part of hospital market research. Just as consumer satisfaction is a function of the extent to which providers do things right, the value of consumer-oriented market research is directly related to whether the research itself is done right. The use of poorly designed consumer research instruments, no matter how well executed, can cause multicollinearity among the independent variables, which, in turn, can result in misleading conclusions.

The consistency of estimates obtained through central-location sampling: analysis of the Partnership for a Drug-Free America Attitude Tracking Study.

To evaluate the reliability and validity of estimates of drug use obtained through multiple-site central-location sampling, data from the Partnership Attitude Tracking Study (PATS), collected annually beginning in 1987, are tracked longitudinally and compared with data collected through traditional household interviews. Comparisons with demographic estimates from Current Population Surveys indicate that central-location sampling can provide a broadly representative sample of the adult population. However, there is some coverage bias in central-location sampling, most notably in the underrepresentation of adults who do not have high school diplomas. Sample estimates obtained from central-location sampling are consistent over time. Basic demographic characteristics of the samples--education, income, marital status, and area of residence--vary by less than 5% across the four waves of the tracking study. Prevalence estimates of self-reported drug use demonstrate an even higher degree of consistency over time. Comparisons of PATS and National Household Survey of Drug Abuse data and the Monitoring the Future data indicate a higher level of drug use and a lower level of perceived risk of occasional use among PATS respondents. While the trends in use and perceived risk reported in all studies are similar, we suggest that perceived threats to confidentiality and anonymity often result in significant underreporting of drug use, particularly in household surveys. Sample estimate differences are attributed to sampling and measurement error. Some discrepancy in prevalence estimates is associated with the fact that the PATS sample is not a true probability sample; as a result, the sampling error of the overall study cannot be estimated precisely. It is also likely that the difference in estimates between the studies is a product of the decreased measurement error of PATS methodology. In central-location sampling, respondents are completely anonymous and may feel more comfortable in providing honest answers about illicit activities such as drug use. The potential applications of this methodology are discussed.

Cancer Education in United States Medical and Dental Schools: The AACE-NCI Survey

ABSTRACT Since July, 1975, a survey of programs of cancer education in medical, osteopathic, and dental schools in the United States has been conducted by the American Association for Cancer Education under the sponsorship of the National Cancer Institute. Data has been obtained from 110/114 medical schools, 8/9 osteopathic schools and 55/58 dental schools; also from 1, 311 faculty, and 3, 856 students. In addition, 55 institutional visits were made. Determinants of desirable educational program charcteristics were sought through several approaches, including multiple regression analysis. In addition to the attributes of successful and innovative programs, of which there are many, certain deficiencies were detected. These included instruction in cancer patient rehabilitation, in psychosocial aspects of cancer, in radiation therapy principles, and exposure to certain relatively common malignancies. The career options of senior medical students were assessed in relation to potential manpower needs in various oncologic fields.