Gösta Kjellsson

Methods for risk assessment of transgenic plants

Methods for risk assessment of transgenic plants , Methods for risk assessment of transgenic plants , مرکز فناوری اطلاعات و اطلاع رسانی کشاورزی

Prediction of the combined effect of various GM contamination sources of seed: A case study of oilseed rape under Danish conditions

Abstract The potential GM contamination at each step in seed production can be predicted for conditions that correspond to a worst-case scenario. When the combined effect of the various GM contamination stages is calculated, the worst-case predictions of the different stages are normally added. This additive procedure to estimate the combined effect of GM contamination may be relevant to estimate the combined effect where a single farm is concerned, but may result in estimation errors when harvested seeds from a large number of farms are mixed. In this study, the consequences of treating the different stages of GM contamination as independent stochastic effects on the combined GM contamination have been estimated. A case study of GM contamination in organic and conventional oilseed rape crops under Danish conditions indicated that the greater part of GM contamination occurred at farm level and much less during transport and storage. Generally, it may be concluded that it is important to consider this uncertainty in the estimates of adventitious presence at each seed production step and also whether the different steps are independent.

Monitoring and surveillance of genetically modified higher plants

1 Introduction.- 1.1 How to use this book.- 1.2 Biotechnology and new GM crops placed on the market.- 1.3 Risk assessment, monitoring and the EU directives.- 2 Environmental concerns and concepts.- 2.1 The risk of GMHP invasion.- 2.2 Ecological effects of GMHP.- 2.3 Concepts and definitions.- 2.4 List of relevant links for information on monitoring of GMHP.- 3 Monitoring and surveillance of GMHP dispersal and effects.- 3.1 Objectives for monitoring programs.- 3.2 Scheme for the process of monitoring GMHP.- 3.3 Approaches to monitoring.- 3.3.1 Quality of monitoring programs.- 3.3.2 GMHP monitoring experience.- 3.3.3 Monitoring methods for other environmental purposes.- 3.4 Factors that may make a community invasible.- 3.5 Suggestions for a tripartite monitoring program.- 3.5.1 Dispersal subprogram.- 3.5.2 Effects subprogram.- 3.5.3 Surveillance subprogram.- 3.5.4 Problems related to effect monitoring.- 3.6 Data analysis and evaluation of results.- 3.7 Extent of monitoring.- 3.8 Reassessment of established monitoring procedures.- 4 Perspectives of habitat selection.- 4.1 Background for habitat selection in Denmark and EU.- 4.2 Important factors for selection of exposed areas.- 4.3 Background for habitat selection in relation to GMHP-monitoring.- 4.3.1 Case-by-case selection.- 4.4 Which habitats should be monitored?.- 4.4.1 Why select disturbed and grass dominated habitats?.- 4.4.2 Danish disturbed habitats dominated by grasses.- 4.5 General changes affecting plants and other organisms.- 4.6 Baseline definition.- 5 Agricultural use and effects of GMHP.- 5.1 Detection of adverse effects in cultivated fields.- 5.2 Effects and monitoring of GM crops used in large-scale farming.- 6 Dispersal of GMHP and transgenes.- 6.1 Detection of GMHP dispersal and invasion.- 6.2 Detection of hybridisation and transgene dispersal.- 7 Effect identification and detection.- 7.1 Effect types, identification and assessment.- 7.2 Assessment of effects on vegetation, ecosystem structure and function.- 7.3 Detection of effects on soil organisms.- 7.3.1 Microbiological activity.- 7.3.2 Soil animals.- 7.4 Detection of effects on aboveground organisms.- 7.4.1 Detection of effects on plant species.- 7.4.2 Detection of effects on insects.- 7.4.3 Detection of effects on birds and mammals.- 7.5 Sampling designs and data analysis methods.- 8 Data analysis and evaluation.- 8.1 Statistical methods and tools.- 8.2 Use of modelling to assist monitoring.- 8.3 Evaluation, information management and policy making.- 9 Conclusions and recommendations.- 10 References.- 11 Subject index.

Glossary of terms and abbreviations

References to specific methods are indicated by M-numbers, while reference to transfer methods are indicated by T-numbers.

Data analysis and evaluation

The choice of pertinent methods for analysis of the different types of data from monitoring is crucial for an evaluation of the ecological effects. The statistical methods ideally need to be an integrated part of the monitoring plan already at the planning stage. This means that practical decisions on survey procedures, monitoring design, number of replicates, survey intervals, etc. all depend on the type of statistical tests which will be used to analyse a particular question. An important tool to help in achieving this goal is the use of statistical power analysis before survey start.

Synopsis of subcategories and recommended methods

The different subcategories listed in Chapter 3 are examined in relation to the risk assessment of GMPs in natural and agricultural ecosystems. Methods which are suitable as test procedures for specific items are suggested. Subcategories lacking relevant methods are indicated in the margin as “need for new methods” and commented on, while interesting research subjects which have had little investigation are marked “research need”. For the discussion of subjects under the categories “Genetic engineering techniques”, “Inserted trait” and “Test procedures”, see Chapters 8, 9 and 10, respectively. A list of the references for each subcategory is shown in Section 6.1 and a list of reviews for each category is shown in Section 6.2.

Agricultural use and effects of GMHP

This chapter presents and discusses the specific problems and types of effects from GM crops that may occur in the cultivated fields and surroundings, and suggestions are made for surveillance and monitoring. General targets for monitoring of two different types of GM crops are presented (Section 5.1), and risk-aspects of large-scale farming are discussed in particular in relation to organic farming (Section 5.2).

Dispersal of GMHP and transgenes

This chapter covers background, methods and procedures for detection of dispersal and invasion of GM plants and gene flow and hybridisation involving the transgene. The GM crop plant can, depending on the species, disperse through pollination of other individuals, through seed dispersal, through survival in the soil seed bank or through vegetative fragmentation (Section 6.1). The inserted transgene can also spread to related species through cross-pollination and hybridisation (Section 6.2). Experience from monitoring trials and information on current regulation is provided, and different ways of detection and their limitations are discussed below. Indirect effects of GM crop use, such as weeds which become resistant to herbicides, and the consequences to management are also discussed.

Environmental concerns and concepts

Right from the beginning of the development of plant biotechnology serious concerns for the possible adverse effects to natural environments were raised (see, e.g., Tiedje et al. 1989). These concerns focus on the probability that the GMHP will cause an effect with negative consequences to the environment (i.e., hazard), often expressed as (UNEP 1996):

Monitoring and surveillance of GMHP dispersal and environmental effects

In this chapter, the regulatory background and the objectives for monitoring GMHP are presented in the context of the EU directive. From this base, a monitoring scheme consisting of three subprograms is suggested. A total monitoring scheme is presented, involving different steps from definition of objectives to decision making within a cyclic approach. Different methods and suggestions are given both for monitoring in general and for the subprograms in specific.