Graham Gudgin

Seats, votes, and the spatial organisation of elections

New Introduction: Seats, Votes and the Spatial Organisation of Elections Revisited by Ron Johnston III Preface 1 Translating votes into seats 2 A modelling framework for the seats-votes relationship 3 Explaining the cube law 4 Malapportionment, nonuniform swing, and nonnormality 5 Three-party elections

In Defence of Shift-Share

The paper argues that criticisms of shift-share techniques are insufficiently strong to affect its application to the analysis of regional growth in the United Kingdom. Evidence for the 11 British regions for 1952-75 is used to demonstrate the robustness of the technique in the context of differing levels of sectoral disaggregation and choice of base years and the technique is then extended to incorporate multiplier and linkage effects. Finally its utility is compared with that of analysis of variance techniques for standardising for industrial structure.

The macroeconomic impact of liberal economic policies in the UK

A sea-change occurred in the early 1980s in the way the UK economy was organised. From then on, until the present day, openness to trade, light-touch regulation of commerce and free competition have been the watchwords, alongside low income tax rates and constraints on trade union action. Most importantly, the removal of a raft of restrictions on banks and building societies, combined with the abolition of controls on the international movement of capital, allowed a huge expansion in household borrowing. These liberalisation measures extended an earlier trend including the bonfire of wartime restrictions, international trade agreements to reduce tariffs, the move to floating exchange rates between 1971 and 1973 and the switch from direct to indirect controls on bank lending in 1971. However, even by the late 1970s, the UK economy was still strongly managed by government. Controls were still in place on capital movements, investment, prices and incomes. Trade unions remained powerful and the basic rate of income tax was at 30% with the top rate at 83%. Most lending to households was still undertaken by heavily controlled building societies. Government economic policies prior to the late 1970s still aimed to maintain full employment although the practice had become more difficult to achieve. After 1979, policy switched decisively towards controlling inflation, first through monetarism and later by using interest rates to meet inflation targets. It is often taken for granted in media and policy-making circles that more structural economic reforms, involving greater labour market flexibility, will increase the efficiency of the economy. This assumption may arise because liberal markets are linked to a political philosophy of individual freedom and responsibility. It may also be because many economists in business and academia have a presumption that private sector organisation of economic activity is superior to any state intervention. We make no such

The Myth of Non-Partisan Cartography: Clarifications

It has been gratifying to observe a continued upward trend in research on electrical bias in which the paper by Chisholm, Devereux and Versey (1981) is the latest example. Chisholm et al., have developed their analysis, using as a starting point our earlier paper (Taylor and Gudgin, 1976), but in doing so have misinterpreted two important elements in a way which will confuse newcomers to the debate . The blame is partly our own since Professor Chisholm showed us an early copy of the paper which we failed to examine in sufficient detail . Nevertheless it is important that the mistakes be corrected .

Could Brexit harm the NHS

Predictions of a smaller UK economy, at least in the short term, and fewer EU healthcare staff present challenges for the NHS after 29 March 2019, argues Anand Menon. But Graham Gudgin is unconvinced by what he believes are biased estimates promoted by a government pushing for a soft Brexit

Should the UK Continue to Follow Liberal Economic Policies

The current economic crisis in the UK, which began in 2008, has been the deepest and most prolonged for over a century. The level of output, or gross domestic product (GDP), is now 20 per cent below the pre-2008 trend,1 and the cumulative loss of income since 2007 is equivalent to a whole year’s GDP. Even with the recent upturn in growth, no economic forecaster currently expects full convergence back towards the pre-2008 trend.2 That trend had been well established, at least since 1948 when modern records began. Since there was also continuous growth from the early 1930s to 1948, this means that the UK economy is in new territory not previously experienced in most people’s lifetime.