Graham Scotland

Early referral strategies for management of people with markers of renal disease: a systematic review of the evidence of clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and economic analysis.

BACKGROUND Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a long-term condition and has been described as the gradual loss of kidney function over time. Early in the disease process, people with CKD often experience no symptoms. For a long time, CKD has been an underdiagnosed condition. Even in the absence of symptoms, CKD appears to add significantly to the burden of cardiovascular disease and death and, for an important minority, can progress to kidney failure. OBJECTIVE To systematically review the evidence of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early referral strategies for management of people with markers of renal disease. DATA SOURCES Electronic searches of 12 major databases (such as MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, etc.) were conducted for the time period of 1990 to April 2008 to identify studies comparing early referral to other care options for people with CKD. Additional searching was performed in the NHS Economic Evaluation Database to support the cost-effectiveness literature review. REVIEW METHODS Two authors reviewed all titles, abstracts and full papers to select relevant literature. A Markov model was constructed to represent the natural history of CKD. The model allowed cohorts to be tracked according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) status and the presence of other complications known to influence CKD progression and the incidence of cardiovascular events. RESULTS From 36 relevant natural history studies, CKD was found to be, despite marked heterogeneity between studies, a marker of increased risk of mortality, renal progression and end-stage renal disease. Mortality was generally high and increased with stage of CKD. After adjustment for comorbidities, the relative risk of mortality among those with CKD identified from the general population increased with stage. For clinical populations, the relative risk was higher. All three outcomes increased as eGFR fell. Only seven studies, and no randomised controlled trials, were identified as relevant to assessing the clinical effectiveness of early referral strategies for CKD. In the five retrospective studies constructed from cohorts starting on renal replacement therapy (RRT), mortality was reduced in the early referral group (more than 12 months prior to RRT) even as late as 5 years after initiation of RRT. Only two studies included predialysis participants. One study, in people screened for diabetic nephropathy, reported a reduction in the decline in renal function associated with early referral to nephrology specialists (eGFR decline 3.4 ml/min/1.73 m(2)) when compared with a similar group that had no access to nephrology services until dialysis was required (eGFR decline 12.0 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). The second study, among a group of veterans with two creatinine levels of at least 140 mg/dl, reported that a composite end point of death or progression was lower in the group receiving nephrology follow-up than in those receiving only primary care follow-up. The greatest effect was observed in those with stage 3 or worse disease after adjustment for comorbidities, age, race, smoking and proteinuria {stage 3: hazard ratio (HR) 0.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61 to 0.9)]; stage 4: HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.89)}. In the base-case analysis, all early referral strategies produced more quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than referral upon transit to stage 5 CKD (eGFR 15 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). Referral for everyone with an eGFR below 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) (stage 3a CKD) generated the most QALYs and, compared with referral for stage 4 CKD (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m(2)), had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of approximately 3806 pounds per QALY. LIMITATIONS Because of a lack of data on the natural history of CKD in individuals without diabetes, and a lack of evidence on the costs and effects of early referral, the Markov model relied on many assumptions. The findings were particularly sensitive to changes in eGFR decline rates and the relative effect of early referral on CKD progression and cardiovascular events; the latter parameter being derived from a single non-randomised study. CONCLUSIONS Despite substantial focus on the early identification and proactive management of CKD in the last few years, we have identified significant evidence gaps about how best to manage people with CKD. There was some evidence to suggest that the care of people with CKD could be improved and, because these people are at risk from both renal and cardiovascular outcomes, strategies to improve the management of people with CKD have the potential to offer an efficient use of health service resources. Given the number of people now being recognised as having markers of kidney impairment, there is an urgent need for further research to support service change.

The efficacy of automated "disease/no disease" grading for diabetic retinopathy in a systematic screening programme

Aim: To assess the efficacy of automated “disease/no disease” grading for diabetic retinopathy within a systematic screening programme. Methods: Anonymised images were obtained from consecutive patients attending a regional primary care based diabetic retinopathy screening programme. A training set of 1067 images was used to develop automated grading algorithms. The final software was tested using a separate set of 14 406 images from 6722 patients. The sensitivity and specificity of manual and automated systems operating as “disease/no disease” graders (detecting poor quality images and any diabetic retinopathy) were determined relative to a clinical reference standard. Results: The reference standard classified 8.2% of the patients as having ungradeable images (technical failures) and 62.5% as having no retinopathy. Detection of technical failures or any retinopathy was achieved by manual grading with 86.5% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 85.1 to 87.8) and 95.3% specificity (94.6 to 95.9) and by automated grading with 90.5% sensitivity (89.3 to 91.6) and 67.4% specificity (66.0 to 68.8). Manual and automated grading detected 99.1% and 97.9%, respectively, of patients with referable or observable retinopathy/maculopathy. Manual and automated grading detected 95.7% and 99.8%, respectively, of technical failures. Conclusion: Automated “disease/no disease” grading of diabetic retinopathy could safely reduce the burden of grading in diabetic retinopathy screening programmes.

A Randomized Trial Comparing Treatments for Varicose Veins

BACKGROUND Ultrasound-guided foam sclerotherapy and endovenous laser ablation are widely used alternatives to surgery for the treatment of varicose veins, but their comparative effectiveness and safety remain uncertain. METHODS In a randomized trial involving 798 participants with primary varicose veins at 11 centers in the United Kingdom, we compared the outcomes of foam, laser, and surgical treatments. Primary outcomes at 6 months were disease-specific quality of life and generic quality of life, as measured on several scales. Secondary outcomes included complications and measures of clinical success. RESULTS After adjustment for baseline scores and other covariates, the mean disease-specific quality of life was slightly worse after treatment with foam than after surgery (P=0.006) but was similar in the laser and surgery groups. There were no significant differences between the surgery group and the foam or the laser group in measures of generic quality of life. The frequency of procedural complications was similar in the foam group (6%) and the surgery group (7%) but was lower in the laser group (1%) than in the surgery group (P<0.001); the frequency of serious adverse events (approximately 3%) was similar among the groups. Measures of clinical success were similar among the groups, but successful ablation of the main trunks of the saphenous vein was less common in the foam group than in the surgery group (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS Quality-of-life measures were generally similar among the study groups, with the exception of a slightly worse disease-specific quality of life in the foam group than in the surgery group. All treatments had similar clinical efficacy, but complications were less frequent after laser treatment and ablation rates were lower after foam treatment. (Funded by the Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN51995477.).

Association between maternal body mass index during pregnancy, short-term morbidity, and increased health service costs: a population-based study.

To investigate the impact of maternal body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) on clinical complications, inpatient admissions, and additional short‐term costs to the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland.

Cost-effectiveness of implementing automated grading within the national screening programme for diabetic retinopathy in Scotland

Aims: National screening programmes for diabetic retinopathy using digital photography and multi-level manual grading systems are currently being implemented in the UK. Here, we assess the cost-effectiveness of replacing first level manual grading in the National Screening Programme in Scotland with an automated system developed to assess image quality and detect the presence of any retinopathy. Methods: A decision tree model was developed and populated using sensitivity/specificity and cost data based on a study of 6722 patients in the Grampian region. Costs to the NHS, and the number of appropriate screening outcomes and true referable cases detected in 1 year were assessed. Results: For the diabetic population of Scotland (approximately 160 000), with prevalence of referable retinopathy at 4% (6400 true cases), the automated strategy would be expected to identify 5560 cases (86.9%) and the manual strategy 5610 cases (87.7%). However, the automated system led to savings in grading and quality assurance costs to the NHS of £201 600 per year. The additional cost per additional referable case detected (manual vs automated) totalled £4088 and the additional cost per additional appropriate screening outcome (manual vs automated) was £1990. Conclusions: Given that automated grading is less costly and of similar effectiveness, it is likely to be considered a cost-effective alternative to manual grading.

Denosumab for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures in post-menopausal women: a NICE single technology appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of denosumab (Amgen Inc., UK) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of denosumab for the prevention of fragility fractures in post-menopausal women, as part of the Institute’s single technology appraisal (STA) process. The University of Aberdeen Health Technology Assessment Group were commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG); the role of the ERG being to appraise the manufacturer’s submission and to produce an independent report. This article provides a description of the company submission, the ERG review and NICE’s subsequent decisions.The manufacturer considered that denosumab would be appropriate for patients unable to take, comply with or tolerate oral bisphosphonates.Comparator treatments selected for the submission were, therefore, ‘no treatment’, raloxifene, strontium ranelate, intravenous zoledronic acid, intravenous ibandronate and teriparatide. The main effectiveness evidence for denosumab was derived from a large randomized controlled trial comparing denosumab with placebo. Given by subcutaneous injection at 6-monthly intervals for 3 years, denosumab reduced the incidence of hip fracture by 40%, and reduced the incidence of clinical vertebral fracture by 69%. An indirect treatment comparisonwas used to derive adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates for different types of fracture for each comparator versus placebo. The RRs (95%CI) applied for denosumab were 0.316 (0.208, 0.478) for clinical vertebral fracture, 0.605 (0.373, 0.983) for hip fracture and 0.842 (0.638, 1.110) for wrist fracture. Despite a number of concerns surrounding the methodology of the indirect comparison, the ERG was satisfied with the robustness of the effect estimates.The RR estimates were applied in a good-quality Markov model that took account of drug costs, administration and monitoring costs, costs associated with fractures, and long-term nursing home costs. Utility weights were used to adjust time spent in fracture states, allowing QALYs to be estimated. The base-case analysis was conducted for women aged 70 years with a T-score of -2.5 or less and no prior fracture, and women aged 70 years with a T-score of -2.5 or less with a prior fragility fracture. Subgroup analyses based on T-score and independent clinical risk factors were also undertaken.Applying a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £30 000 per QALY, the manufacturer’s results suggested that denosumab would offer a cost-effective alternative to all treatment comparators for the primary and secondary prevention of fractures. The ERGwas concerned about an assumption that denosumab wouldbe administered in generalpractice at the average cost of two standard GP visits a year. As a result, the ERG requested some further sensitivity analysis and undertook some further modelling, applying an assumption that denosumab would be provided primarily in secondary care. This modification altered the cost effectiveness of denosumab versus ‘no treatment’ (in women with no prior fragility fracture) and zoledronic acid.The NICE Appraisal Committee concluded that, as a treatment option for the prevention of osteoporotic fractures, denosumab should be recommended only in post-menopausal women at increased risk of fracture who cannot comply with the special instructions for administering oral bisphosphonates, or have an intolerance of, or contraindication to, those treatments. For primary prevention, the Appraisal Committee also stipulated specific levels of fracture risk at which denosumab is recommended.

The role of haemorrhage and exudate detection in automated grading of diabetic retinopathy

Background/aims Automated grading has the potential to improve the efficiency of diabetic retinopathy screening services. While disease/no disease grading can be performed using only microaneurysm detection and image-quality assessment, automated recognition of other types of lesions may be advantageous. This study investigated whether inclusion of automated recognition of exudates and haemorrhages improves the detection of observable/referable diabetic retinopathy. Methods Images from 1253 patients with observable/referable retinopathy and 6333 patients with non-referable retinopathy were obtained from three grading centres. All images were reference-graded, and automated disease/no disease assessments were made based on microaneurysm detection and combined microaneurysm, exudate and haemorrhage detection. Results Introduction of algorithms for exudates and haemorrhages resulted in a statistically significant increase in the sensitivity for detection of observable/referable retinopathy from 94.9% (95% CI 93.5 to 96.0) to 96.6% (95.4 to 97.4) without affecting manual grading workload. Conclusion Automated detection of exudates and haemorrhages improved the detection of observable/referable retinopathy.

Safety versus success in elective single embryo transfer: women's preferences for outcomes of in vitro fertilisation

Objective  To assess whether women waiting to undergo in vitro fertilisation (IVF) view adverse outcomes associated with twin pregnancy as more desirable than having no pregnancy at all.

Effectiveness of early lens extraction for the treatment of primary angle-closure glaucoma (EAGLE): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Primary angle-closure glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness worldwide. In early-stage disease, intraocular pressure is raised without visual loss. Because the crystalline lens has a major mechanistic role, lens extraction might be a useful initial treatment. METHODS From Jan 8, 2009, to Dec 28, 2011, we enrolled patients from 30 hospital eye services in five countries. Randomisation was done by a web-based application. Patients were assigned to undergo clear-lens extraction or receive standard care with laser peripheral iridotomy and topical medical treatment. Eligible patients were aged 50 years or older, did not have cataracts, and had newly diagnosed primary angle closure with intraocular pressure 30 mm Hg or greater or primary angle-closure glaucoma. The co-primary endpoints were patient-reported health status, intraocular pressure, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year gained 36 months after treatment. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN44464607. FINDINGS Of 419 participants enrolled, 155 had primary angle closure and 263 primary angle-closure glaucoma. 208 were assigned to clear-lens extraction and 211 to standard care, of whom 351 (84%) had complete data on health status and 366 (87%) on intraocular pressure. The mean health status score (0·87 [SD 0·12]), assessed with the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions questionnaire, was 0·052 higher (95% CI 0·015-0·088, p=0·005) and mean intraocular pressure (16·6 [SD 3·5] mm Hg) 1·18 mm Hg lower (95% CI -1·99 to -0·38, p=0·004) after clear-lens extraction than after standard care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £14 284 for initial lens extraction versus standard care. Irreversible loss of vision occurred in one participant who underwent clear-lens extraction and three who received standard care. No patients had serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION Clear-lens extraction showed greater efficacy and was more cost-effective than laser peripheral iridotomy, and should be considered as an option for first-line treatment. FUNDING Medical Research Council.

Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost–utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20‐year time horizon

Please cite this paper as: Scotland G, McLernon D, Kurinczuk J, McNamee P, Harrild K, Lyall H, Rajkhowa M, Hamilton M, Bhattacharya S. Minimising twins in in vitro fertilisation: a modelling study assessing the costs, consequences and cost–utility of elective single versus double embryo transfer over a 20‐year time horizon. BJOG 2011;118:1073–1083.