Graham Wall

The Ex-ante and Ex-post Economic and Social Impacts of the Introduction of High-speed Trains in South East England

Abstract This paper reports on research to determine the impact of the high-speed train (HST) network made possible by the Channel Tunnel on socio-economic development in South East England. A detailed literature review has been carried out assessing the impacts of HST, which includes reviewing computable general equilibrium models, accessibility and ex-post monitoring studies. Data on economic activity rates, population changes, planning consents and land values are collated and related to changes in accessibility. Detailed case studies are provided for one location with long established HST services for which ex-post analysis is possible (Ashford), and for locations where HST services are being planned, or have recently been opened, and ex-ante analysis can be undertaken (e.g. Stratford and St Pancras, respectively). The case studies show that the wider economic benefits of HST are difficult to detect, as they are swamped by external factors, but they are more likely when large changes in accessibility are complemented by supportive planning policies.

Impact of delays on passenger train services: evidence from Great Britain

The impact of delays on passenger railways, with specific reference to the national rail network in Great Britain, is examined. A key distinction is made between punctuality (trains running late) and reliability (trains canceled). In Britain these have been combined into a public performance measure, which deteriorated markedly as a consequence of the Hatfield accident in 2000 but has since gradually improved. Causes of delay can be associated with train operators, infrastructure authorities, and external factors. In Great Britain, train operators apparently have been better able to manage delay than the infrastructure authority. Traditional means of valuing delay have used stated preference methods that incorporate a measure of mean lateness and have shown that a minute of late time is typically valued as equivalent to 3 min of timetabled journey time. This is referred to as the reliability multiplier. Studies have also focused on the value placed on the standard deviation of journey time and compare this valuation against that of mean journey time to produce the reliability ratio. The most recent work finds that the reliability ratio may be higher than previously thought, whereas the reliability multiplier may be lower than previously thought, especially for long journeys. In addition, recent work that has made use of revealed preference data to infer elasticities of demand with respect to delays indicates that most market segments are relatively insensitive to delays. In total, this recent work suggests that passengers in Britain may be becoming less sensitive to reliability, and reasons for this are examined.

An extended goal programming model for site selection in the offshore wind farm sector

This paper presents an application of extended goal programming in the field of offshore wind farm site selection. The strategic importance of offshore shore wind farms is outlined, drawing on the case of the United Kingdom proposed round three sites as an example. The use of multi-objective modelling methodologies for the offshore wind farm sector is reviewed. The technique of extended goal programming is outlined and its flexibility in combining different decision maker philosophies described. An extended goal programming model for site selection based on the United Kingdom future sites is then developed and a parametric analysis undertaken at the meta-objective level. The results are discussed and conclusions are drawn.

New intelligent transport systems applications in Europe to improve bus services

Applications of information technology are expanding rapidly across all modes of transport, under the general heading of intelligent transport systems (ITS). For bus-based public transport, a cluster of applications has been developed that can help improve the efficiency and performance of buses on the street, thus helping to provide a real transport alternative to the private car. An initial summary of a range of such ITS examples in Europe is provided, including automatic vehicle location (AVL), bus priority in traffic control systems, automatic ticketing systems, automatic camera enforcement systems, and variable message signs. Then the focus shifts to one area where activity is most pronounced—the implementation of AVL systems and their integration with urban traffic control (UTC) systems. A review of typical AVL/UTC systems operational in Europe is then presented through the identification of some eight alternative architectures and associated system characteristics, such as the technologies used and the location of bus priority “intelligence.” This is followed by a summary of examples from cities in Europe that have implemented these architectures, together with typical results illustrating the effectiveness of these systems. The diversity of architectures, technologies, and systems is recognized as beneficial in providing customer choice, but can generate a significant difficulty for decision makers in local authorities wishing to invest in public transport ITS technologies. A concluding discussion lists some of the key issues involved in this investment process.

Environmental parking charging policies: A case study of Winchester

This article reports the results of a package of environmentally-linked parking charging policies designed to reduce the environmental impact of the parking fleet in Winchester. These measures were implemented as part of the EU-sponsored CIVITAS MIRACLES project which ran from 2002 to 2006. The measures included a variable tariff for annual parking permit holders at several long stay car parks in the city centre, offering a discount of 75 percent or 50 percent for those vehicles in the two lowest CO2 tax bands, with free annual permits offered to owners of electric or hybrid vehicles. In addition, a differential parking charging policy was implemented to discourage long stay parking in the city centre and encourage the use of off-centre and peripheral car parks such as the Park and Ride. This article includes the results of the scheme, a review of other existing schemes and the conclusions and recommendations drawn from the evidence.

Robustness of weighted goal programming models: an analytical measure and its application to offshore wind-farm site selection in United Kingdom

This paper proposes a method to measure robustness of weighted goal programming (WGP) models by focusing on random percentage changes in the set of observed technological coefficients that characterize the goal equations. The issue under consideration is to estimate the impact of the random percentage changes on the WGP deviations from the goal targets, the solution to the model before changes being kept equal. Normally distributed and independent percentage changes are assumed. As a result, a measure of robustness is obtained dependent on the parameters of the model, standard deviations of percentage changes, and the solution to the model before changes. A demonstration of the proposed robustness measure on an offshore wind-farm site location model from the literature is developed. The results indicate that robustness of proposed solution to the energy project is high. Conclusions are drawn as to the practicality and usage of the proposed model in comparison to other methodologies for handling uncertainty within the goal programming model.