Graziella Caselli

Three dimensions of the survival curve: horizontalization, verticalization, and longevity extension

Three dimensions of the survival curve have been developed: (1) “horizontalization,” which corresponds to how long a cohort and how many survivors can live before aging-related deaths significantly decrease the proportion of survivors; (2) “verticalization,” which corresponds to how concentrated aging-related (“normal”) deaths are around the modal age at death (M); and (3) “longevity extension,” which corresponds to how far the highest normal life durations can exceed M. Our study shows that the degree of horizontalization increased relatively less than the degree of verticalization in Hong Kong from 1976 to 2001. After age normalization, the highest normal life durations moved closer to M, implying that the increase in human longevity is meeting some resistance.

Pathophysiology of ageing, longevity and age related diseases

On April 18, 2007 an international meeting on Pathophysiology of Ageing, Longevity and Age-Related Diseases was held in Palermo, Italy. Several interesting topics on Cancer, Immunosenescence, Age-related inflammatory diseases and longevity were discussed. In this report we summarize the most important issues. However, ageing must be considered an unavoidable end point of the life history of each individual, nevertheless the increasing knowledge on ageing mechanisms, allows envisaging many different strategies to cope with, and delay it. So, a better understanding of pathophysiology of ageing and age-related disease is essential for giving everybody a reasonable chance for living a long and enjoyable final part of the life.

Family clustering in Sardinian longevity: A genealogical approach

This paper aims to discuss the validation and family determinants affecting the longevity of Sardinian centenarians, using a genealogical approach. This preliminary study presents the first results of a genealogical tree reconstruction of selected centenarians aged 105 and over, from certain areas. These are mostly situated in the province of Nuoro, an area with the highest rate of centenarians and where the female-to-male sex ratio tends to be male-biased. An accurate centenarian age validation was performed that required a meticulous examination of numerous civil status records and parish registers. An important finding was that longevity occurs among the ascendants of a particular branch of the family. The data used are still provisional but, should it apply to other validated cases, it would provide empirical evidence of a genetic component in longevity. A more thorough examination of the data available may yield deeper insights into the role played by endogamy and consanguinity.

Age, period, cohort and early mortality: an analysis of adult mortality in Italy.

Changes in adult mortality in Italy for cohorts born between 1882 and 1953 are analysed and interpreted by means of two different statistical models. The first, an Age–Period–Early Mortality (APEM) model, is employed to analyse the possible relationships between adverse conditions during the first 15 years of life and subsequent mortality. It is shown that higher mortality early in life is associated with higher mortality up to age 45 and lower mortality at latter ages. Finally, possible links between the observed decline in early mortality and the evolution of adult mortality are analysed and discussed.

Differentials in the femininity ratio among centenarians: Variations between northern and southern Italy from 1870

Significant differentials have been observed between Italian regions in the distribution of centenarians by sex, from two women per man in the south to over eight in certain regions in the north. In order to explain these differentials we studied the evolution of the femininity ratio (FR), using a longitudinal approach to follow the ageing process in two cohorts, and making use of nearly all the statistical data available since the time of the Unification of Italy in 1870. Significant differentials in the FR observed at the age of 100 are mainly due to mortality differentials among men over the age of 60. The high mortality of men in the north and their low mortality in the south are the main explanations of why the FRs are higher in the north and lower in the south. Mortality differentials among women have only a marginal impact.

Quand certaines générations ont une mortalité différente de celle que l'on pourrait attendre.

Wilmoth John, Vallin Jacques y Caselli Graziella. — Cuando ciertas generaciones tienen una mortalidad diferente a la que se podria suponer. El analisis de la matriz francesa de probabilidades de muerte por ano de edad y aňo calendario del periodo 1899-1981 a partir de un modelo descriptivo simple, permite aislar una componente diagonal que sin pretension de explicar la totalidad de la influencia de la historia propia de cada generacion, permite sin embargo hacer resaltar la singularidad de ciertas generaciones cuya historia difiere notoriamente de la de generaciones continguas. Se hallan asi claramente confirmados los efectos a largo plazo de las dos guerras mundiales ya puestas en evidencia por otros autores, pero aparecen igualmente otras : efectos a largo plazo de la influenza espaňola de 1918, efectos negativos de la generalizacion del parto en hospital durante los afios cincuenta. Realizado a nivel de ocho grandes categorias etiologicas, el analisis muestra que todas las causas participan en la sobremortalidad de las generaciones identificadas, pero ciertos procesos juegan un papel especial (sobre todo, malnutricion, alcoholismo, infecciones, degeneracion).

What Impact Do Contextual Variables Have on the Changing Geography of Mortality in Italy

Using data for 94 provinces, three periods (1971–1973, 1981–1983 and 1991–1993), and for men and women, we present an interesting picture of the geography of adult and elderly mortality by cause of death in Italy. This picture brings into focus the North/South gap that has yet again emerged, this time in gender differences in mortality. Particular attention is given to mortality from those causes that would appear to depend on the geographical context and that have a greater role to play in overall mortality differences. We then define which causes of death have changed the geographic pattern in the period considered. Lastly we study the relationship between mortality by cause and socio-economic, health care, environmental, cultural, and nutritional variables.

National differences in the health transition in Europe.

The dual task of describing the characteristic trends of mortality in Europe and of putting forward explanatory hypotheses is the main goal of this article....I attempt to analyze the health transition from 1910....The different steps in mortality trends both in quantitative terms and with regard to structural changes by age and cause are also analyzed and compared when possible to the far-reaching changes that marked the history of mortality in Europe. An attempt at synthesis is performed using the data on life expectancy at birth in 1910 until recent times. Particular focus will be placed on the more significant stages of the decline in mortality by age and cause of death using life tables constructed for the years prior to World War I (1910); those for the early 1930s...; for 1950...; data for the 1960s and 1970s...; and finally the latest available data to gain insight into the decline now in process. (EXCERPT)

Une démographie sans limite

Caseili Graziella, Vallin Jacques - £Una demografia sin limite? Es sabido que la esperanza de vida seguira aumentando en muchos paises durante las proximas decadas Las Naciones Unidas preven que va a converger a nivel mundial hacia un limite de 85 aňos No obstante. aunque para ciertos investigadores el limite de 85 aňos es incuestionable, para otros es doblemente pesimista Рог un lado, aun sin progreso evidente de la longevidad, existe un margen considerable entre el pretendido maximo de 85 aftos y los 122 aňos de Jeanne Calment Por otro lado. no hay pruebas de que la longevidad de la especie humana sea una constante intangible Toda suposicion es en principio valida En este articulo nos contentamos con suponer que la esperanza de vida tiene un limite de 150 aňos Con 2,1 hijos por mujer, tal evolucion implicana que la poblacion mundial se multi- plicana por dos antes de estabilizarse Pero el precio a pagar sena evidentemente un enve- jecimiento demogratico inuudito habria un 14% de jovenes de menos de 20 aňos y un 217c de adultos entre 20 y 59 aňos, mientras que un 597C de la poblacion tendria 60 aňos o mas (у un М)% 100 aňos о mas) No obstante. nada indica que la fecundidad este destinada a per- manecer en 2,1 hijos por mujer bi la tendencia hacia el hijo unico se generalizase. la po- blacion desaprecena en cuestion de siglos. pero antes de su desapancion la estructura por edad envejecena de forma todavia mas espectacular con 150 aňos de esperanza de vida, un 27c de la poblacion tendna menos de 20 aňos, un 17C tendna entre 20 y 59, un 91% mas de 60 y el 74% de la humanidad sena centenana Tambien hemos examinado otras hipotesis que aun complican mas los resultados, por ejemplo en terminos de relacion de masculmidad al nacer

Mortality by education level at late-adult ages in Turin: a survival analysis using frailty models with period and cohort approaches

Objectives Neglecting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in survival analysis models has been showed to potentially lead to underestimating the effect of the covariates included in the analysis. This study aimed to investigate the role of unobserved heterogeneity of frailty on the estimation of mortality differentials from age 50 on by education level. Design Longitudinal mortality follow-up of the census-based Turin population linked with the city registry office. Setting Italian North-Western city of Turin, observation window 1971–2007. Population 391 170 men and 456 216 women followed from age 50. Primary outcome measures Mortality rate ratios obtained from survival analysis regression. Models were estimated with and without the component of unobserved heterogeneity of frailty and controlling for mortality improvement over time from both cohort and period perspectives. Results In the majority of cases, the models without frailty estimated a smaller educational gradient than the models with frailty. Conclusions The results draw the attention of the potential underestimation of the mortality inequalities by socioeconomic levels in survival analysis models when not controlling for unobserved heterogeneity of frailty.