Gregg M. Garfin

Applications of Monsoon Research: Opportunities to Inform Decision Making and Reduce Regional Vulnerability

Abstract This article presents ongoing efforts to understand interactions between the North American monsoon and society in order to develop applications for monsoon research in a highly complex, multicultural, and binational region. The North American monsoon is an annual precipitation regime that begins in early June in Mexico and progresses northward to the southwestern United States. The region includes stakeholders in large urban complexes, productive agricultural areas, and sparsely populated arid and semiarid ecosystems. The political, cultural, and socioeconomic divisions between the United States and Mexico create a broad range of sensitivities to climate variability as well as capacities to use forecasts and other information to cope with climate. This paper highlights methodologies to link climate science with society and to analyze opportunities for monsoon science to benefit society in four sectors: natural hazards management, agriculture, public health, and water management. A list of stakeh...

Adapting Across Boundaries: Climate Change, Social Learning, and Resilience in the U.S.–Mexico Border Region

The spatial and human dimensions of climate change are brought into relief at international borders where climate change poses particular challenges. This article explores “double exposure” to climatic and globalization processes for the U.S.–Mexico border region, where rapid urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural intensification result in vulnerability to water scarcity as the primary climate change concern. For portions of the western border within the North American monsoon climate regime, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects temperature increases of 2 to 4°C by midcentury and up to 3 to 5°C by 2100, with possible decreases of 5 to 8 percent in precipitation. Like the climate and water drivers themselves, proposed societal responses can also be regionalized across borders. Nevertheless, binational responses are confronted by a complex institutional landscape. The coproduction of science and policy must be situated in the context of competing institutional jurisdictions and legitimacy claims. Adaptation to climate change is conventionally understood as more difficult at international borders, yet regionalizing adaptive responses could also potentially increase resilience. We assess three cases of transboundary collaboration in the Arizona–Sonora region based on specific indicators that contribute importantly to building adaptive capacity. We conclude that three key factors can increase resilience over the long term: shared social learning, the formation of binational “communities of practice” among water managers or disaster-relief planners, and the coproduction of climate knowledge.

Summary for Decision Makers

Natural climate variability is a prominent factor that affects many aspects of life, livelihoods, landscapes, and decision-making across the Southwestern U.S. (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah; included are the adjacent United States-Mexico border and Southwest Native Nations land). These natural fluctuations have caused droughts, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, heavy snow falls, severe winds, intense storms, the battering of coastal areas, and acute air-quality conditions. And as a region that has experienced—within the relatively short time span of several decades—rapid increases in human population (Figure 1.1), significant alterations in land use and land cover, limits on the supplies of water, long-term drought, and other climatic changes, the Southwest can be considered to be one of the most “climate-challenged” regions of North America. This document summarizes current understanding of climate variability, climate change, climate impacts, and possible solution choices for the climate challenge, all issues that are covered in greater depth in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States.i

Water security and adaptive management in the Arid Americas

Societal use of freshwater, ecosystems’ dependence on water, and hydroclimatic processes interact dynamically. Changes in any of these subsystems can cause unpredictable feedback, resulting in water insecurity for humans and ecosystems. By drawing on resilience theory, we extend current productive–destructive framings of water security to better address societal–ecosystem–hydroclimatic (SEH) interactions, dynamics, and uncertainties that drive insecurity but also offer response opportunities. Strengthening water security in this sense requires strategies that (1) conceptually and practically interlink SEH subsystems; (2) recognize extreme conditions and thresholds; and (3) plan for water security via structured exchanges between researchers and decision makers in ways that account for institutions and governance frameworks. Through scrutiny of case evidence from water-scarce regions in western North America and the Central Andes, we assert that ensuring water security requires adaptive management (interactive planning that accounts for uncertainties, initiates responses, and iteratively assesses outcomes). Researchers and stakeholders from these regions are pursuing a multiyear series of workshops that promote science-based decision making while factoring in the political implications of water planning. This study briefly reviews an emerging water security initiative for the arid Americas that aims to enhance understanding of adaptive approaches to strengthen water security. Finally, by synthesizing efforts in the arid Americas, we offer insights for other water-insecure regions.

Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para Atender el Cambio Climático Resumen Los manejadores de recursos naturales están buscando herramientas para ayudarles a atender los efectos actuales y futuros del cambio climático. Presentamos un modelo para la planificación colaborativa enfocada a identificar formas para adaptar las acciones de manejo para atender los efectos del cambio climático en paisajes que cruzan límites jurisdiccionales públicos y privados. La Iniciativa Sudoccidental de Cambio Climático (ISCC) puso a prueba el método de planificación de Adaptación para Metas de Conservación (AMC) en talleres en cuatro paisajes del suroeste de E. U. A. Este método de planificación incrementó exitosamente la capacidad de los participantes para atender el cambio climático al proporcionarles un mejor entendimiento de los efectos potenciales y guiar la identificación de soluciones. Los talleres promovieron el diálogo trans-jurisdiccional y multidisciplinario sobre cambio climático mediante la participación activa de científicos y manejadores en la evaluación de efectos del cambio climático, la discusión de implicaciones de esos efectos para determinar las metas y actividades de manejo y desarrollar oportunidades para la coordinación regional de la adaptación de planes de manejo. La aplicación simplificada del marco AMC llevó las discusiones de grupo más allá de la evaluación de los efectos a la concepción de opciones para mitigar los efectos del cambio climático sobres determinadas especies, funciones ecológicas y ecosistemas. Los participantes abordaron la incertidumbre de las condiciones futuras al considerar más de un escenario de cambio climático. Delinearon oportunidades e identificaron los siguientes pasos para la implementación de varias acciones, y asociaciones locales han comenzado a implementar acciones y realizar planificación adicional. Se requiere inversión continua en la adaptación de planes y acciones de manejo para atender los efectos del cambio climático en el suroeste de Estados Unidos y la extensión de los métodos utilizados en este proyecto en paisajes adicionales si se quiere mantener la diversidad biológica y los servicios de los ecosistemas en un mundo que cambia rápidamente.

EXPLORATORY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION RECONSTRUCTIONS FROM THE QINLING MOUNTAINS, NORTH-CENTRAL CHINA

February–April (FMA) temperature at Foping (1879–1989) and July–August (JA) precipitation at Xian (1895–1988) have been reconstructed using total ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) from trees in the Qinling Mountains, at the northern limit of the East Asian monsoon, in central China. The Xian JA precipitation reconstruction, albeit short, represents the first well-replicated, crossdated dendroclimatic reconstruction of summer monsoon precipitation for this region. Reconstructed Xian precipitation shows significant positive relationships with historical evidence from the region. The key feature of the precipitation reconstruction is prolonged summer drought during the late 1920s and early 1930s. The Foping reconstruction displays warmer-than-average FMA temperatures during this time period. These exploratory reconstructions, along with a previous reconstruction from Huashan, demonstrate the complexity of attempting dendroclimatic reconstructions from this region. Our results indicate that further attempts to locate long-lived conifers from here can result in an extended well-calibrated and verified reconstruction of summer monsoon precipitation.

Relationships between winter atmospheric circulation patterns and extreme tree growth anomalies in the Sierra Nevada

Tree-ring data from mid-elevation (∼2000 m) giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) and high elevation (∼3500 m) pines (Pinus balfouriana, Pinus albicaulis) were used to select extreme growth years from which temperature, precipitation and large-scale winter (November–March, NM) 500 mb circulation patterns associated with the extreme tree growth anomalies were examined. Winters preceding extreme high growth in both giant sequoia and pines are warm and wet and are characterized by anomalous low pressure in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and a tendency for southwesterly flow and advection of warm maritime air into California. For the pines, such winters exhibit a pattern of anomalous low pressure in the northern Pacific, anomalous high pressure over northwestern Canada and anomalous low pressure across the southern US. NM 500 mb heights suggest more meridional circulation during the warm and dry winters preceding extreme low growth in giant sequoia. Atmospheric circulation during these winters exhibits a persistent trough/ridge pattern between the central Pacific and the western US. Storms are deflected away from California during these winters. NM atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme low growth in the pines exhibit maximum westerlies north of their mean position and the tendency for enhanced ridging in the northeast Pacific, which advects cool dry air into the Sierra Nevada. As dendroclimatic reconstructions are more frequently employed in order to better understand past variability of temperature and precipitation, synoptic dendroclimatological studies such as this one provide useful insights about atmospheric circulation.

Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities

While the U.S.-Mexico border has been called a “third country” and has been identified as a distinct region (Anzaldua 1987), the challenges it faces are due in large measure to its high degree of integration into global processes of economic and environmental change. The border region is characterized by a so-called “double exposure” (Leichenko and O’Brien 2008)—meaning that environmental change in the region is driven by accelerated processes of global economic integration (such as foreign-owned industries and international migration) coupled with intensive climate change. It is critical to understand the drivers of climate-related vulnerability and capacities for adaptation in the region in the context of the region’s distinct history and contemporary challenges, shared climate regime, transboundary watersheds and airsheds, and interdependent economies and cultures.

Drought, Climate Variability and Implications for Water Supply and Management

Arizona has burgeoning urban areas, large agricultural regions, water-dependent habitats for endangered fish and wildlife, and a growing demand for water-based recreation. As one of the seven states in the Colorado River Basin, Arizona must cooperate, and sometimes compete, with other state, tribal, and federal governments in securing its water needs—a process that is complicated by a multi-year drought and climate-related variability in water supply. Arizona Water Policy addresses these issues from academic and policy perspectives that include economics, climatology, law, and hydrology. The book explores Arizona’s water management and extracts lessons that are important worldwide.

The science-policy interface: experience of a workshop for climate change researchers and water managers

This report summarizes a workshop for Arizona water managers and climate change researchers. The key technical conclusions of the workshop emphasize the need for improved monitoring, prediction, and engineering to deal with hydrologic non-stationarities generated by a combination of increasing temperatures, changing snow hydrology, and enhanced precipitation variability. Participants suggested a need to improve methodologies for valuing ecosystem services and understanding the nexus between energy production in the water resources arena. Paleohydrologic reconstructions, well-defined climate change scenarios, better data visualization and collaborative learning opportunities between water managers and scientists all can support more effective water management decisions. We note the importance of maximizing discussion and social interaction in workshops in order to remove barriers between scientists and practitioners. In particular: (1) holding the workshop in a location that maximizes community-building, (2) limiting the time devoted to plenary talks, and (3) introducing informal cafe-style discussions early in the workshop, are all important. Copyright , Beech Tree Publishing.